POLITICAL BATTLES CONTINUE, PRIME MINISTER NOT YET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000392

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KN KS
SUBJECT: POLITICAL BATTLES CONTINUE, PRIME MINISTER NOT YET
CONFIRMED

Classified By: A/DCM Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: The Blue House and the National Assembly are
in a staring match and it appears the UDP has no reason to
blink. With nothing to lose, the UDP has delayed putting the
PM-designate Han Seung-soo's nomination to a vote in the
plenary and they have the necessary 150 votes (141 seats plus
9 in the left-wing DLP) to delay the vote indefinitely.
Rather than risk being accused of holding up state affairs, a
deal will likely be struck where one or two of Lee's
minister-designates will withdraw their nomination in
exchange for a vote on Prime Minister-designate Han
Seung-soo's candidacy. The UDP must flex its muscle ahead of
the April 9 elections to show they can play a legitimate
opposition role. So far, so good. Lee has played into their
hands with several questionable nominees but if he shows
willingness to compromise, as he did over the government
reorganization plan, Lee could emerge with minimal damage.
The brouhaha shows its politics as usual, but the
conservatives are now on the receiving end. End Summary

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MOU Nominee in Jeopardy
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2. (SBU) The opposition United Democratic Party (UDP) as
well as some GNP lawmakers have called for the Blue House to
withdraw MOU minister-designate Nam Joo-hong's nomination
because of his hard-line views toward North Korea, dual
U.S./ROK nationality of his children, allegations of past tax
evasion, and suspicious property deals by his wife. His
National Assembly hearing has not been scheduled yet, and the
progressive UDP said they would boycott the hearing even if
it were held. The Blue House pledged to take a closer look
at the controversial nominees and press reports note the Blue
House could replace Nam and one or two others, so the cabinet
can be put in place.

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Others At Risk as Well?
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3. (SBU) Other nominees involved in controversies include:
Minister of Environment-nominee Park Eun-kyung for
speculative property deals and track record of her tax
evasion; Culture Minister-nominee Yoo In-chon for
questionable means in amassing his roughly 15 million dollar
fortune; Health/Welfare Minister-designate Kim Sung-yi for
alleged cooperation with the authoritarian Chun Doo-hwan
government; and Ministry of Labor-nominee Lee Young-hee for
falsifying qualifications. Several of the male nominees have
been accused of dodging their military service. Though not
subject to a National Assembly hearing, Senior Blue House
Social Policy Secretary-designate Park Mee-seok has also been
attacked for alleged plagiarism. Since GNP Chairman Kang
Jae-sup has requested the Blue House reconsider some of the
nominees so that the cabinet can be formed, it seems likely
one or two, perhaps Nam and MOE nominee Park, will be
sacrificed so that PM-designate Han's nomination can be
ratified and the cabinet can take office.


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Confirmation Process
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4. (SBU) The Prime Minister must be approved by a majority
with majority attendance (at least 150 of 299 present and at
least 51 percent of those voting). Only the Prime Minister
requires National Assembly consent, while Cabinet Members
only need "review" by a committee. The respective standing
committees report to the plenary on the outcome of the
nominees' hearings. Even if the committee does not approve
the minister, the minister can still be appointed by the
president. (NOTE: Therefore the opposition is calling for a
withdrawal of nomination for certain candidates, while the
GNP argues that all matters should be debated at the
hearings. END NOTE) The reports are then sent over to the
President by the NA Speaker (Lim Chae-jung). The hearing and
report to the plenary should take place within 20 days of the
President's request for a hearing. After an additional 10

days, if the NA fails to send the President a report, the
President can appoint the nominee anyway. (NOTE: The problem
despite the rather generous deadline is that the President
would have difficulty convening his first Cabinet meeting by
the end of Feb as he planned, should the hearing process be
derailed for some of the more controversial candidates, for
lack in 15-member quorum set out in the Constitution.)

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Outlook
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5. (SBU) Most pundits agree the holdup of PM-designate Han
Seung-soo's nomination is related directly to the National
Assembly elections April 9, but also note the situation
partially stemmed from the Blue House's hasty announcement of
the nominees without extensive screening. The Blue House has
acknowledged that unless it withdraws at least one nominee,
the PM confirmation may further be delayed, cause a prolonged
vacuum in state affairs, and undermine preparations for the
April 9 election. Regarding the postponed PM confirmation
vote, UDP leader Sohn Hak-kyu said, "My party will function
as a firm opposition that fulfills its responsibility. What
criteria could we possibly set for the Cabinet Ministers in
hearings, when we have already approved a questionable Prime
Minister, who is the head of the Cabinet?"

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Comment
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6. (C) Currently, Roh-administration ministers are still in
office pending the confirmation of the Prime Minister and
hearings for the ministers. While this seems like a recipe
for disaster, this arrangement likely will not greatly affect
management of state affairs. The delayed hearings will
likely have a greater impact on the political conversation
ahead of the April elections rather than any short, or
long-term affect on Lee's ability to govern. Both the UDP
and the Blue House must show they have the voters' interests
in mind and therefore a compromise is likely in the coming
days to allow Lee's first cabinet to convene.
VERSHBOW