LESS EUPHORIA OVER NEW ROK PRESIDENT LEE MYUNG-BAK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000390

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KN KS
SUBJECT: LESS EUPHORIA OVER NEW ROK PRESIDENT LEE MYUNG-BAK


Classified By: A/DCM Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: Lee Myung-bak's transition period, which
ended with his inauguration on February 25, was plagued by
weeks of political wrangling within the Grand National Party
(GNP) over nominations for the April 9 National Assembly
elections and intense debate with the United Democratic Party
(UDP) over Lee's government reorganization plan. Add to that
the battle over Lee's cabinet nominees (septel) and his
failure to take action on economic reforms he promised during
his campaign, and it is clear why some of the sky-high
expectations created by Lee's landslide victory have started
to erode. Lee's support rates, which were over 80 percent
immediately after his election, are currently hovering just
under 60 percent. Still, most analysts continue to believe
that the GNP will win a majority of seats in April, giving
Lee and opportunity to govern. End Summary

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Party Infighting
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2. (SBU) Lee pledged he would introduce a new style of
politics -- a break from "Yoido-style politics" (NOTE: Yoido
is the island in Seoul where the National Assembly is located
and Yoido-style politics refers to corrupt political
practices. END NOTE),but this was never a short-term
possibility. Still, pundits assess that rather than
charting a new political course, the transition period
featured public infighting between Lee's and Park Geun-hye's
groups within the GNP. Park and/or her supporters threatened
to leave the party multiple times over perceived unfair
nomination regulations they claimed favored the Lee Myung-bak
faithful.


3. (C) Kwon Sean-il, political assistant to Lee's elder
brother and Vice Speaker Lee Sang-deuk, told poloff that
President Lee was naturally very selfish and headstrong and
that Lee Sang-deuk had counseled President Lee throughout the
campaign to be more accommodating to Park Geun-hye and other
political rivals. Kwon said he and his boss were worried
that Lee's desire to have things his way in the nomination
process, regarding personnel and policy formulation was not
helpful. Additionally, Kwon said that he hoped the GNP did
not win a huge majority in the April elections or else Lee
Myung-bak would be uncontrollable, even by his brother, and
would try to push through unreasonable reforms.

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Languishing Economic Reforms
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4. (SBU) Lee won in December in large part by successfully
projecting the image he could save the economy, but in the
transition period Lee's team made announcements that scaled
back some of Lee's campaign promises. Lee revised his
ambitious seven percent growth goal to six percent due to the
U.S. sub-prime loan crisis and high oil prices, and his team
made several widely criticized -- and subsequently abandoned
-- announcements that he would reduce cell phone rates and
gasoline prices. Meanwhile, Lee tenaciously continues to
advocate his canal project despite widely held skepticism
about the benefit of a cross-country canal (55 percent oppose
the plan in all recent polls) and staunch opposition from
local and environmental groups.

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Dissipating Euphoria
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5. (C) GNP politicians, who probably counted on riding Lee's
coattails to victory in April, seem to be worried that they
are going to have to work harder to win their seats.
Representative Chung Mong-jun recently told the Ambassador
that the GNP would find things more difficult with former
President Roh Moo-hyun out of the political scene. The
politician, who is close to Lee, said Koreans voted for Lee
because they opposed Roh Moo-hyun. Chung said the challenge
was to convince Koreans, who typically vote against, rather
than for a candidate or party, that the GNP vision for the
future was better than the UDP's. Chung said the election
was already decided in the Southwest regions of Jeolla, which
are overwhelmingly liberal, and the Southeast regions of
Gyeongsang, which tended to be conservative. The real battle
would be in the Seoul-Incheon-Suwon metropolitan area, where
voters tend to be more independent.


6. (C) President Lee's decrease in popularity is a matter of
concern, Chung said. Lee adviser and former Ambassador to
the U.S. and Foreign Minister Han Sung-joo, also at the
lunch, was surprisingly candid in his criticism of the
transition. Han said that the transition team had tried to
accomplish too much, and, instead of learning from their
mistakes, he suspected the Lee team would continue to be
overly ambitious. The problem, as Han articulated it, was
that people were already fatigued with Lee's attempts to do
too much too fast, and, moreover, Lee's aides are fatigued
from being worked too hard over the last two months. The
pace, he suggested, could just not continue.

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Not Such a Big Deal?
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7. (SBU) According to political analyst Park Song-min, Lee's
missteps have been scrutinized by the press and political
opponents because of the April 9 election. At the beginning
of previous administrations, there were similar mistakes made
but in a less politically charged atmosphere, former
Presidents enjoyed their honeymoon period. Park, who
anticipated the GNP would win 180-200 seats April 9, said he
was less worried by the transition team's shortfalls and bad
personnel choices than by the lack of vision shown by
President Lee in his inaugural address. He stated that the
political chatter over personnel would soon go away, but if
Lee does not chart a clear course for the country, it could
be hard for Lee to maintain long-term support.

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Comment
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8. (C) Lee Myung-bak won big in December because South
Korean voters wanted Roh Moo-hyun out of office. Now that
Roh is out, Koreans are beginning to assess Lee more
realistically -- a septuagenarian businessman with a work
ethic reminiscent of the Park Chung-hee days. At the same
time, the liberal United Democratic Party, now freed from the
grasp of Roh, is beginning to gel, presenting a serious
challenge to Lee and the GNP. Still Lee's honeymoon is not
over. Most analysts believe the GNP will win a majority of
the National Assembly seats in April, allowing Lee the
opportunity and authority to govern.
VERSHBOW