ROH MOO-HYUN'S TURBULENT TERM: HISTORIANS MAY BE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000365

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KN KS
SUBJECT: ROH MOO-HYUN'S TURBULENT TERM: HISTORIANS MAY BE
KINDER


Classified By: Amb. Alexander Vershbow. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Roh Moo-hyun ends his presidency a deeply
disappointed man. According to Blue House contacts, Roh has
been moody and morose since the presidential election in
December which resulted in a lopsided victory for the
conservative candidate Lee Myung-bak. Not helping Roh's mood
is the piling on by even his traditional supporters,
fingering him for policy missteps, failure to build any
consensus around his center-left policies, offensive and
divisive public remarks, and placing ideology above the
people's welfare, especially their economic well-being. The
reality is that most Koreans are enormously relieved to see
the end of Roh's tenure; they have been counting the days for
some time.


2. (C) Roh apparently takes some comfort in comparing
himself to figures from the past, especially President
Truman, who have been judged with more kindness by historians
than contemporaries. He tells his staff that his North Korea
policy was fundamentally sound and that it opened a new era
of inter-Korean dialogue, a prerequisite for reconciling with
the North. He also takes considerable pride in having
reduced regionalism, the malignant rivalry between the
Southeast and the Southwest, which has traditionally infected
all aspects of Korean politics and society. Also of comfort
to Roh is that he is likely to be the first president in
decades without himself or his sons facing jail for
corruption, and he deserves credit for dramatically reducing
corruption in election finance. Many of these developments
are of course due to the maturing of South Korean politics,
but it is also true that Roh's tenure has shown that there is
a place in South Korea for center-left government that
emphasizes fairness, equality and, above all, mass
participation in government and politics. While the policies
and ideas he advocated will remain, Roh is likely to
disappear from the political scene for now. END SUMMARY.

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REASONS TO BE DISAPPOINTED
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3. (C) Roh has been remarkably quiet since the crushing
defeat of his candidate, Chung Dong-young, in the December 19
presidential election. Chung won just 26.3 percent of the
vote compared to 48.7 percent for Lee Myung-bak, the
conservative candidate. More telling, candidates opposed to
Roh -- Lee Myung-bak and Lee Hoi-chang -- won 63.8 percent,
compared to 36.2 percent for progressive and left-wing
candidates. According to a senior Blue House official, Roh
expected a defeat, but not by such an enormous margin. Over
the past two months, Roh has apparently been drinking heavily
with close friends and aides, expressing deep disillusionment
at the turn of events.


4. (C) Most hurtful for Roh is the blame for the defeat
heaped on him even by his former supporters. His party
stalwarts are openly lamenting Roh's inept performance,
virtually unanimous in tracing Lee Myung-bak's victory to
Roh's mishandling of state affairs. Centrist party
officials, such as former lawmaker and Roh campaign advisor
Chyung Dai-chul, blame Roh for ignoring party politics,
hiring incompetent staff, and making frequent public speaking
gaffes. Mostly, however, they blame him for implementing
leftist policies, especially toward North Korea and on social
issues such as education and real estate ownership, that are
unacceptable to mainstream South Koreans.


5. (C) On the other hand, Roh's leftist supporters note that
Roh turned his back on his core support base when he pushed
through the KORUS FTA and sent troops to Iraq. They were
also deeply disappointed that Roh's rhetoric was far louder
than his action on economic development, especially his
failure to do anything about the ever-increasing gap between
rich and poor. For some time, even the leftists were tired
of Roh's inability to execute "change," criticizing his
policies as too ideological and sentimental, and chiding Roh

himself for being inflexible and stubborn.


6. (C) Perhaps the most telling sign of widespread public
discontent can be seen in the youngest group of voters who
were instrumental in voting him in during the chaotic 2002
presidential elections. In a November 2007 survey of Seoul
university students, the younger generation expressed the
greatest displeasure with Roh's handling of state affairs
(only 12.1 percent approved),education policies (14.6
percent),social polarization (16.1 percent),and
labor/employment policies (17.5 percent). Professor Kang
Won-taek of Soongsil University said, "It may be
understandable for a liberal government to increase taxes,
but the problem was that the people couldn't feel the
benefits in return, since the education and housing prices
soared over the past decade." There was no group that stayed
loyal to Roh -- even in the traditionally liberal southwest
Jeolla region, where liberal candidates typically receive
over 90 percent support, Chung Dong-young won only 80
percent.

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TOO EARLY TO BE ANGRY?
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7. (C) Although numbering only a few, there are still
defenders of Roh Moo-hyun. One of them is Park Sun-won, who
has been a senior Blue House staffer since the beginning of
Roh's term. Granted, Roh has been clumsy and stubborn, Park
said, but Roh will be remembered for reducing the power of
the government, introducing transparency in government, and
providing opportunities to women and other disadvantaged
segments of the population. Even Roh's detractors admit that
under Roh's presidency, there have been significant gains:

-- A reduction in the power and authority of the Prosecutors'
Office, the National Tax Office, and the National
Intelligence Service (NIS). Traditionally, these three
offices have been the tools of choice for the Blue House to
threaten and control its detractors. Victims have ranged
from political opponents to newspapers to big business. The
consensus view is that abusive practices by these three
offices have declined dramatically under Roh.

-- A reduction in corruption. Along with the diminished
roles of the prosecutors, tax officials and NIS, there has
been a reduction in corruption. Roh's presidency has been
largely free of illegal political funds, corruption and
bribery scandals. If Roh is to get into legal trouble, most
pundits speculate, it will be because of suspicions that he
had a role in covering up for illegal fundraising by the
previous president, Kim Dae-jung.

-- A decrease in regionalism. A passionate ideologue, Roh
was elected on a center-left policy platform. Roh's
continued adherence to progressive policies, especially his
founding of the Uri Party, has made South Korean politics
based more on policies than regions. Regionalism is still
alive and well, but its influence is less pervasive. As
noted, Chung Dong-young, for example, received only 80
percent of votes from Jeolla Provinces, compared to 92.9
percent for KDJ in 1997 and 93.2 percent for Roh in 2002.

-- An increase in human rights awareness. Roh's
Administration created the Ministry of Gender Equality, which
was instrumental in passing anti-trafficking and
anti-prostitution laws. Also significant, Roh himself was
very much out in front in advocating measures to correct
societal imbalances resulting from urbanization and
globalization, although he fell short of passing any concrete
legislation.


8. (C) On security issues, Roh also chalked up a few gains.
While many criticize his North Korea policy, he achieved a
summit with Kim Jong-il, opened the Kaesong Industrial
Complex, and expanded economic cooperation that even many
critics agree helped ease tensions on the Peninsula. Even on
U.S.-ROK relations, while Roh was much criticized throughout
the election campaign by the conservatives, he was
accommodating in relocating the Second Infantry Division and
USFK headquarters to Pyeongtaek, dispatching troops to Iraq,

and concluding the KORUS FTA negotiations. The U.S. and
Korea also agreed to transfer operational wartime control
(OPCON) to the ROK during Roh's tenure, and were able to
settle longstanding differences over the environmental
standards to be met in the return of military bases and camps.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Roh's approach to the presidency was a radical
departure from the political traditions in South Korea
represented by the "Three Kims" (Kim Dae-jung, Kim Young-sam
and Kim Jong-pil). Promising an end to "boss" politics, Roh
made the presidency approachable. On taking office, Roh had
unprecedented public meetings with citizens and even blogged
directly on the Blue House web site, arguing his case ranging
from why Korea needed educational reform to the evils of
Japanese colonial rule. Roh promised that he could
fundamentally renovate Korean politics and selflessly push
forward with far-reaching political reforms. These were
lofty, probably unattainable goals, but made worse by Roh's
personal style, which many Koreans found distasteful. Still,
these remain goals and policies that attract a large
following in Korea. They will now have to find a new
champion and, over time, Koreans may well conclude that Roh
advanced their goal of establishing the center-left as a
force capable of and prepared to hold the reins of
government.
VERSHBOW