BLUE HOUSE ADVISOR SAYS FTA, MAJOR LAWS WILL PASS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 002457

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KN KS
SUBJECT: BLUE HOUSE ADVISOR SAYS FTA, MAJOR LAWS WILL PASS

REF: SEOUL 2432

Classified By: A/DCM Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: Ze Seung-wan, advisor to President Lee for
civil affairs, told poloff December 22 that the KORUS FTA,
along with other major legislation currently on hold due to
physical opposition from the Democratic Party (DP),would be
passed during the current 30-day special session set to end
January 9. After giving the DP until Christmas to compromise
on the FTA and other controversial laws, Ze said he thought
the Grand National Party (GNP) would push through all
outstanding legislation. Since President Lee Myung-bak had
little to show for his first ten months in office, he felt
pressed to pass these laws, Ze said; only if Lee started to
do something could his popularity increase. End Summary.


2. (C) Ze, in charge of tracking the Korean people's
response to President Lee's policies, told poloff on December
22 that President Lee felt he urgently needed to pass key
legislation at the end of 2008 to create some positive
momentum going into 2009. Ze said Lee will hold his New
Year's address January 5 instead of later in the month as
usual because of this sense of urgency. He explained that
since many Koreans go to their home towns at the end of
January for Lunar New Year, if people in the capital region
thought more positively of Lee by the major holiday,
discussion in people's homes around the country would
accentuate this positive spirit and help boost Lee's support
rate.


3. (C) The opposition DP had made a real miscalculation by
bringing out hammers, saws and hoses to fight the GNP's
attempt to put the FTA on the agenda for discussion. Ze said
this miscalculation by the DP had led to a slight increase in
Lee's popularity after the fight in the National Assembly and
led to an opening for the ruling party to push through
legislation.

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Timeline
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4. (C) The ruling GNP announced that they would attempt to
meet with the DP and seek compromise until December 25 and
then after that would push through legislation. Ze said the
FTA was the first law on the list for several reasons.
First, Lee pledged to ratify it during the campaign and had
been emphasizing its importance all year. Also, Ze said that
ratifying it would provide a sort of "barricade" against
future additional negotiations that the U.S. might suggest.
Finally, the FTA was negotiated and signed by the Roh
government, so Lee felt he should ratify it and move on to
his own initiatives.

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FATU Report
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5. (C) Foreign Affairs, Trade and Unification (FATU)
Committee Chair Park Jin told the Ambassador December 20 that
the reason the DP had staged violent opposition to the GNP's
attempt to put the FTA on the committee agenda was that the
DP had hoped to portray Lee Myung-bak as incompetent and
paralyze the government. He said he tried repeatedly to talk
to the DP leadership and nine times gave the DP a date for
discussion of the FTA to no avail. Therefore, he ultimately
had no choice but to exercise his power as chair of the
committee and put the bill on the agenda without DP
participation.

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Comment
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6. (C) The antics in the National Assembly last week
(reftel) did not reflect well on anyone. Still,
domestically, most of the blame has stuck on the opposition
Democratic Party, thus opening a window of opportunity for
President Lee and the GNP. Many in the Blue House and the
GNP are now pressing President Lee for a show of force. In
the short term, this could involve pushing through all key
legislation currently on hold, much of it economic related
(reftel). An added incentive for GNP legislators to fulfill
Lee's wishes is that a good performance in the National
Assembly could lead to a spot in the cabinet for some GNP
lawmakers.
STEPHENS