BOSNIA - DODIK AND REPUBLIKA SPRSKA OFFICIALS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 000331

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR(DICARLO),EUR/SCE(HOH/FOOKS); NSC FOR
BRAUN; OSD FOR BEIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - DODIK AND REPUBLIKA SPRSKA OFFICIALS
PRESS RS CLAIMS TO SELF-DETERMINATION

REF: A. SARAJEVO 288

B. SARAJEVO 287

C. SARAJEVO 226

D. SARAJEVO 152

E. SARAJEVO 149

F. 07 SARAJEVO 2316

SARAJEVO 00000331 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador Charles English. Reason 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: It appears that Republika Srpska (RS)
officials, including RS Prime Minister Milorad Dodik, are
using Kosovo's declaration of independence to assert an RS
right to self-determination. Dodik's party, the Alliance of
Independent Social Democrats (SNSD),first made such a claim
on January 31 (Ref C). In a February 18 joint statement,
Dodik and other senior RS officials claimed that Kosovo
independence enshrined a new right under the UN Charter for
territories of member state to self-determination. On the
same day, SNSD officials also announced that their party will
ask the state-level parliament to adopt a "Declaration of
Responsibility" on February 20. The declaration's language
is deliberately provocative (among other things it labels the
RS a "state entity"),and Dodik has implied the declaration's
rejection would constitute an attack on the RS. On February
21, the RS National Assembly (RSNA) will hold an
extraordinary session to discuss Kosovo. We understand that
SNSD will propose a resolution modeled on the February 18
statement signed by Dodik. Dodik is likely to dismiss these
steps privately as designed to manage RS public angst over
Kosovo independence, and we do not believe he intends
exercise what he claims is the RS right to self-determination
in the short-term. Nonetheless, we see his statements and
any subsequent RSNA resolution as an attempt to cement an RS
claim, which would further undercut Dayton, the Bosnian state
and the international community's authority here. END SUMMARY

RS Rhetoric After Kosovo Independence is Problematic
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2. (C) As anticipated RS officials, including RS PM Dodik,
have criticized Kosovo's declaration of independence and
underscored that the RS would not permit Bosnia to recognize
it as an independent state (Refs A and D). Unfortunately,
rhetoric from RS officials over the last three days has gone
much further. After initially appealing for calm, Dodik made
statements similar to those he has been making for almost a
year implying a parallel between the RS's future status and
Kosovo's final status. Rajko Vasic, SNSD party spokesman,
declared that Kosovo's independence has reduced Bosnia's
"chances of survival." More disturbingly, Dodik, RS
President Kuzmanovic, and Speaker of the Republika Srpska
National Assembly (RSNA) Radojicic have signed a declaration
asserting that Kosovo's independence enshrines a "new
interpretation" of the UN Charter that allow "parts of a
territory of a member state" the right to self-determination.
This follows a January 31 assertion by Dodik's party that
the RS already had the ri
ght to self-determination under Dayton (Ref C).

SNSD's "Declaration of Responsibility"
--------------


3. (C) On February 18, SNSD announced plans to ask the
state-level House of Representatives (HoR) to adopt a
"Declaration of Responsibility" at its February 20 session.
The declaration contains language supporting Bosnia's
integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions and welcoming
EUFOR's presence until Bosnia joins the EU, but it also
contains more provocative language. The declaration
"confirms" that Bosnia was established as part of the Dayton
Accords. It also "confirms" the RS as a "state entity"
within Bosnia. Finally, the declaration calls on Parliament
to formally adopt Dayton's Annex 4 as the country's
constitution, and implies that only by doing so would it be
possible to amend it. Dodik said publicly on February 18
that SNSD's aim is to confirm the "continuity" of the RS. He
warned that if the HoR failed to adopt the SNSD declaration,
Bosnian Serbs would interpret it as a "signal" about others'
intentions towards them and the RS. (Note: As recently as
January 23, Dodik warned that if the RS's place in Bosnia is
not assured and there are calls to abolish the RS, "the
people" of the RS will decide in a referendum whether they
wish remain in Bosnia. End Note)

SARAJEVO 00000331 002.2 OF 002



RSNA: Confirming the Right to Self-Determination
-------------- ---


4. (C) The day after the February 20 HoR session, the RSNA
will hold an extraordinary session to discuss Kosovo and
adopt a resolution on its "unilateral declaration of
independence." In conjunction with the February 21 RSNA
session NGO and student groups are mobilzing for public
protests. The fate of SNSD's Declaration of Responsibility
will likely impact the tone and tenor of the RSNA debate and
the extent of RS public turnout for protests. Serb
Democratic Party leader Mladen Bosic and Serb Radical Party
(SRS) leader Mihajlo Mihajlica have already called for the
RSNA to demand "the same rights" as Kosovo. Though we do not
have a copy of the SNSD-proposed Kosovo resolution, we
understand it will be modeled on the joint statement signed
by the RS's SNSD leadership on February 18 (the document
referenced in paragraph two above). Though the RS
leadership's statement calls for peaceful protests by RS
citizens and warns against violence, it also labels Kosovo's
independence a "dangerous international precedent with
unpredictable long-term consequences" for the region. More
disconcertingly, it implicitly claims the right to
self-determination for the RS, "even if opposed by the mother
country."

Comment
--------------


5. (C) The SNSD-proposed "Declaration of Responsibility" is
deliberately provocative, particularly its claim that the RS
is a "state entity." This language reaffirms what we see as
a significant shift in the rhetoric from the RS and its
officials. For months, Dodik and other RS officials have
attacked the state and sought to undermine its legitimacy,
often by preventing it from functioning effectively. Over
the last several weeks, Dodik and RS officials have
increasingly sought to claim the attributes of a state for
the RS itself, most notably in the SNSD Main Board
conclusions reference to the RS's right to
self-determination. Dodik and the SNSD know that Bosniaks
and Croats will oppose his declaration. By implying that
their rejection would constitute an attack on the RS, Dodik
is fueling fears among Bosnian Serbs that they are under
assault from the Federation and do not have a secure future
within Bosnia.


6. (C) It is tempting to dismiss allusions by Dodik and the
SNSD to an RS right to self-determination as either a)
tactical rhetorical support for friends and allies in
Belgrade; and/or, b) political jujitsu designed to manage
popular discontent within the RS over Kosovo, particularly
calls for a referendum, while avoiding a firm political
commitment to act on it. Undoubtedly, this is how Dodik and
other RS officials will seek to spin it privately. However,
it appears to us as an the beginning of a campaign to cement
the RS's rhetorical claim that it has the right to opt out of
Bosnia at some future date and time of its choosing. We
would be wise to begin to address this with the same kind of
focus the RS is showing, in coordination with our
international partners, including at the February 26-27 Peace
Implementation Council.
ENGLISH