BOSNIA - TWO NEW SERB CHALLENGES TO DAYTON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 000287

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR(DICARLO),EUR/SCE(HOH/FOOKS); NSC FOR
BRAUN; OSD FOR BEIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SCUL BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - TWO NEW SERB CHALLENGES TO DAYTON

REF: A. SARAJEVO 246


B. SARAJEVO 226

C. SARAJEVO 95

SARAJEVO 00000287 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: DCM Judith Cefkin. Reason 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Over the last week, two issues have arisen
that raise additional questions about the broader political
objectives being pursued by Republika Srpska PM Milorad Dodik
and his Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD). The
SNSD-led Ministry of Civil Affairs has drafted a new law on
cultural heritage that would effectively strip the Commission
to Preserve National Monuments established by the Dayton
Peace Agreement of its responsibilities and return them to
the entities. And in a further development, according to
press reports, Dodik appeared to call into question the 2001
arbitration decision setting the Inter-Entity Boundary Line
(IEBL) in the Dobrinja neighborhood of Sarajevo. He also
seemed to imply that he wanted to modify the current IEBL.
While both of these issues may fade, in the context of what
are now regular rhetorical attacks by Dodik and other RS
officials on the state, we believe they are noteworthy. END
SUMMARY

Preserving National Monuments: A Dayton Success Story
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Destruction of cultural heritage sites was a common
tactic employed by the contending armies during the 1992-1995
war, particularly by the Army of Republika Srpska (VRS)
during their ethnic cleansing campaigns. A commitment to the
restoration of those sites was an important part of the
Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA),embodied in Annex 8, the
"Agreement on Commissions to Preserve National Monuments."
Consistent with Article IX of Annex 8, the Presidency
established a state-level Commission to Preserve National
Monuments in 2001. Despite this positive step, then HighRep
Petritsch had to use the Bonn Powers in 2002 to amend
Federation and Republika Srpska laws to ensure entity
compliance with the Commission's decisions. Since then, the
Commission, with strong support from the international
community, particularly the U.S., has been a success.

Gutting Annex 8
--------------


3. (C) The Commission has worked with the Council of Europe
(CoE) for several years to secure passage of a state-level
law on cultural heritage, which would bring Bosnia into
compliance with its CoE obligations. In 2004, as we
understand it, there appeared to be agreement among the
state, two entities and Brcko on a law that satisfied the
CoE, but the RS withdrew its support at the last minute; the
draft never reached the Council of Ministers. On February 8,
the current Chairperson of the Commission, Amra
Hadzimuhamedovic, approached us to express concern that the
Ministry of Civil Affairs (MCA),led by Sredoje Novic, a
member of RS PM Milorad Dodik's Alliance of Independent
Social Democrats (SNSD),has charged a working group with
drafting a new law on cultural heritage.


4. (C) The working group reportedly consisted of
representatives from both entity governments and the Brcko
District as well as from institutes charged with protecting
cultural heritage in the entities and Brcko. The Commission
was excluded from it, however. Hadzimuhamedovic claimed that
the MCA's draft, if enacted, would effectively strip the
Commission of its authority and return the responsibility for
protecting Bosnia's heritage to the entities. Under the
current Federation Constitution, this responsibility would
devolve down to the cantons. She noted that entities and
cantons have had a poor track record protecting the cultural
heritage of minority and returnee communities.
Hadzimuhamedovic explained to us that she sees the draft law
as part of "Dodik's broader plan" to take competencies away
from the state and transfer them to the entities.

The Sarajevo Inter-Entity Boundary Line (IEBL)
-------------- -


5. (C) There has been a series of violent criminal incidents
in Bosnia over the last several weeks, which have made
headlines across Bosnia. Some of the most dramatic have

SARAJEVO 00000287 002.2 OF 002


occurred in Sarajevo, including those municipalities and/or
parts of municipalities that were part of Sarajevo prior to
the war but are located in the RS and are now known
collectively as East Sarajevo. On February 8, amidst growing
public frustration with the violence, RS PM Dodik met with
the mayor and other local leaders of East Sarajevo to discuss
what his government was doing to address the situation.
According to Radio-Television Republika Srpska, Dodik
suggested "reviving the work of the Commission for
Inter-Entity Boundary demarcation," adding, "East Sarajevo's
development cannot be stopped by obstruction from the
Federation."


6. (C) Dodik's comments were vague and somewhat muddled, but
our assessment is that he was referring to the post-war
dispute between the Federation and the RS over demarcation of
the IEBL passing through a Dobrinja neighborhood of Sarajevo.
After five years the two entities had failed to resolve this
dispute, and in 2001, then HighRep Petritsch referred the
matter to binding arbitration. The arbitrator's decision
gave much of the territory to the Federation. The territory
contained several apartment buildings from which Bosniaks had
been forced during the 1992-1995 war. The arbitrator noted
that his decision had been motivated, in part, to try to
correct the wrongs inflicted on the Bosniak residents of
Dobrinja during the war. Dodik's comments appeared to call
into question this decision; they certainly implied the need
to modify the current IEBL.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Dodik and other senior Bosnian Serb politicians have
been engaged in an anti-Dayton, anti-state rhetorical
campaign for several months now. This has often been
combined with actions deliberately designed to undermine the
state and prevent state-level institutions from functioning
effectively. In this context, the draft law on cultural
heritage and Dodik's off-hand comments about the IEBL are, in
our judgment, noteworthy. They both potentially represent
more direct challenges to Dayton by Dodik and the RS than his
usual attacks on state-level institutions: the draft law to
Annex 8, and the IEBL comments to Annex 5, which commits the
Federation and the RS to accept binding arbitration to
resolve disputes between them. The only other IEBL issue
decided by binding arbitration involved Brcko. The draft Law
on Cultural Heritage and Dorbinja, taken independently, would
appear to constitute obscure attacks on Dayton structures,
but in the aggregate and considering anti-state Bosnian Serb
rhetoric, they may constitute part of what increasingly
appears to be attempts by Dodik and SNSD to undermine the
Bosnian state.
ENGLISH