BOSNIA - TIHIC OFFERS HAND OF COMPROMISE, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 001911

SIPDIS

EUR/SCE (HYLAND, FOOKS),NSC FOR HELGERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/30/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PHUM KDEM BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - TIHIC OFFERS HAND OF COMPROMISE, BUT
DODIK SMACKS IT DOWN

REF: A. A. SARAJEVO 1899

B. B. SARAJEVO 1520

C. C. SARAJEVO 1862

Classified By: Michael J. Murphy. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In a December 26 press conference, Party of
Democratic Action (SDA) chairman Sulejman Tihic called on
Bosniaks to abandon the politics of victimhood and stressed
that compromise with Serbs and Croats is the only path to a
stable Bosnia. Tihic also attacked rival Bosniak politician
Haris Silajdzic and his Party for BiH (SBiH) for their "all
or nothing" approach to politics, which has played into the
hands of Serb nationalists seeking to strengthen Republika
Srpska (RS) at the expense of the state. A number of RS
politicians and key SDA officials welcomed Tihic's comments,
but in a December 28 interview, RS PM Milorad Dodik dismissed
Tihic's remarks as "a trap," asserted that Tihic was no
different than Silajdzic, and speculated -- "hypothetically"
-- that an RS with "independent capacities" would develop
much faster than an RS inside Bosnia. Tihic's speech showed
courage and was a refreshing aberration from the nationalist
rhetoric that has dominated Bosnian politics over the last
two years. If he sticks to his guns, this attitude --
coupled with reciprocal gestures on the part of Dodik and the
Serbs -- could begin to reverse Bosnia's dangerous political
backsliding. It will be tougher for Tihic to sustain Bosniak
support for compromise, though, if Dodik continues his
rhetorical attacks on the state and refuses to compromise on
issues of importance to Bosniaks. End Summary.

Tihic Urges Bosniaks to Stop Whining and Compromise
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2. (SBU) In SDA's traditional New Year's Eve press
conference, which took place on December 26, party chairman
Tihic encouraged Bosniaks to abandon their "victim philosophy
and self-pity," declaring that "precisely because of the
victims, their families, and future generations, we have to
work more on resolving the problems of the present and think
of the future." He added that Bosniaks cannot expect the
USG, the international community, OHR, and Islamic and other
countries to resolve Bosnia's problems. "Those times have
passed," Tihic warned, stressing that the country's
politicians must now "assume responsibility and do our job."
In this context, Tihic noted that it was incumbent upon the
Bosniaks to strike compromises with Croats, Serbs, and
"others who live in our country" in order to "strengthen and
maintain Bosnia-Herzegovina as a multiethnic and
multireligious state of equal peoples and citizens." He
added, though, that OHR's presence in Bosnia and the Bonn
Powers would be necessary until the PIC's "five plus two"
agenda and constitutional reform were fully implemented,
warning that OHR's early departure could result in
"confrontations and divisions." (Note: It has long been
SDA's policy that OHR remain until constitutional reform is
complete. End Note.)

Tihic Calls Out Silajdzic
--------------


3. (SBU) Tihic cited the Prud Agreement (Ref A),which he
helped broker, as evidence of his party's commitment to
improving the situation in Bosnia by bringing Serbs and
Croats to the negotiating table. He also outlined specific
elements of Prud, explaining how the compromises he had
reached protected the core interests of Bosniaks even as they
made progress possible for the country as a whole. At the
same time, Tihic portrayed Silajdzic and SBiH as destructive
political forces and accused them of working against Bosniak
interests. He stated that these politicians "are not
offering realistically better solutions; all they do is offer
agreements with themselves. They have not delivered on their
promises." He added that "over two years of their mandate
have passed, but what is left of their motto -- 100 Percent
BiH -- is only 100 Percent RS!" (Note: "100 Percent BiH" is
SBiH's motto and election campaign slogan. End Note.) In a
December 28 follow-on interview for the television network
OBN, Tihic specified that SBiH, which billed itself as the
strongest advocate for Bosniak interests, was actually
working against these interests because of the party's "all
or nothing" approach to issues. He added that SBiH lacked
the capacity to compromise with anyone outside its own party.

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SDA, according to Tihic, was in coalition with SBiH only
because "the people wanted them to be."

SDA and Some Serbs Applaud, Silajdzic Boos
--------------


4. (SBU) SDA VP Bakir Izetbegovic, traditionally an opponent
of many of Tihic's policies, told the pro-Bosniak daily
Dnevni Avaz on December 26 that he was certain Tihic's
statements would garner full support from within the party.
He declared that "we should focus on the future, and we
should be prepared to forgive certain things due to the
future. Because of the future we also must not forget who we
are and what happened to us, because the one who forgets
history is forced to repeat it." Some Banja Luka politicians
on December 26 also praised Tihic. Alliance of Independent
Social Democrats (SNSD) Main Board member Milorad Zivkovic
called Tihic's speech "wise and brave," adding that SDA's
professed change of course for Bosniak politics could have
positive implications for the EU accession process. Party of
Democratic Progress (PDP) chairman Mladen Ivanic echoed
Zivkovic's accolades, also calling Tihic "wise and brave,"
but Serb Democratic Party (SDS) leader Mladen Bosic noted
that Tihic's concept could not come to fruition without the
staunch support of the other Bosniak parties and the entire
SDA. Predictably, Silajdzic in a December 28 press
conference slammed Tihic for "insulting the Bosniak people"
and declared that the Prud Agreement represents a "factual
recognition of the results of genocide and ethnic cleansing."

Dodik Throws Cold Water on Tihic's Overture
--------------


5. (SBU) In contrast to Tihic's call for Bosniaks to begin
the painful journey away from a focus on wartime politics and
to make the compromises with Serbs and Croats necessary to
benefit all Bosnian citizens, Dodik on December 28 publicly
dismissed Tihic's statements as "a trap." Echoing his
September 18 interview for Radio Free Europe (Ref B),he
compared Tihic to Silajdzic, arguing that both politicians
were pursuing the same objective -- the elimination of the RS
-- but through different means. Dodik declared that his duty
as RS Prime Minister was "to ensure that Tihic does not
succeed" in stripping the RS of its powers. Dodik boasted
that the RS today was more powerful than in the past,
claiming that because of his policies the RS "enjoys dignity
and is recognized ... as the best organized part" of Bosnia,
warning that "only an institutionally strong Srpska" can
prevent "the disappearance of the Serbs" from Bosnia. In the
same interview, Dodik speculated about an RS future outside
Bosnia, noting that self-determination was the supreme
principle of the UN, and that "whether it will be necessary
to apply it here or not will be left to the coming future."
Though Dodik was quoted to add that he was "committed to the
Dayton Peace Agreement," he argued that the reforms
implemented in Bosnia since Dayton "did not bring anything
good to the RS." Returning to a theme he has embraced in the
past, Dodik predicted that "if the RS had its own independent
capacities ... its progress and development would have been
much faster."

Comment
--------------


6. (C) Tihic's December 26 speech was, in many respects, a
welcome and courageous break from the usual
nationalist-tinged Bosnian politics. It was certainly the
first time in a long time that any political leader has been
brave enough to tell his constituents something they didn't
want to hear. Tihic's statements present a risk to a
politician struggling to maintain control of restive factions
within his own party and woo a Bosniak populace looking for
leadership capable of protecting its interests against what
it perceives as a threat from the escalating anti-Bosniak
Serb nationalism that Dodik represents. Silajdzic will
undoubtedly do everything he can to discredit Tihic and paint
him as a dupe of the Serbs, who want to, as Silajdzic often
puts it, "realize Milosevic's project" in Bosnia. There are
signs that Silajdzic's criticisms of Tihic and Prud are
beginning to strike a chord among average Bosniaks.
Silajdzic's job has been made easier by Dodik, who recently
attacked "Muslim" judges on the State Court (Ref C),and who
was quick to dismiss Tihic's speech and speculate, once

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again, about an RS future outside Bosnia. However much Dodik
qualifies such speculations, his comments -- coupled with his
anti-state rhetoric and public defiance of Sarajevo, OHR, and
the international community -- fuels fears among Bosniaks
about his long-term intentions. Tihic has taken a big risk
with Prud and now with the December 26 speech, and his
attempt to restore the middle ground in Bosnian politics will
depend on his skills navigating narrow waters between the
Scylla of Dodik's Serb nationalism and the Charybdis of
Silajdzic's Bosniak nationalism.
ENGLISH