BOSNIA - AMBASSADOR VISITS SREBRENICA, PUSHES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 001900

SIPDIS

EUR/SCE FOR FOOKS, STINCHCOMB; NSC FOR HELGERSON, WILSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - AMBASSADOR VISITS SREBRENICA, PUSHES
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

REF: A. (A) SARAJEVO 1056

B. (B) SARAJEVO 1614

C. (C) SARAJEVO 1571

Classified By: Ambassador Charles English, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Ambassador English visited Srebrenica
December 16 to inaugurate two USAID-funded projects and one
new American-backed investment. He also met with
newly-elected Mayor of Srebrenica Osman Suljic, who named his
municipal team at the inaugural session of the Srebrenica
assembly on November 22. Though Suljic's selection of two
ethnic Serbs for leadership positions (including a rival SNSD
mayoral candidate) makes good on his promises of inclusive
administration, the selection of Camil Durakovic as Deputy
Mayor suggests unhelpful influence of elements within the SDA
party leadership (particularly state-level parliamentarian
and President of the SDA Municipal Board Sadik Ahmetovic, who
pitched hard for Durakovic to be the party's mayoral
candidate) will likely continue to be a factor in local
administration. The municipal council will be governed by a
unique SNSD-SDA-SBiH coalition, with Radomir Pavlovic (SNSD)
maintaining his position as Speaker. Should the municipal
assembly find itself dealing with ethnically- or
politically-sensitive issues, the coalition could find it
difficult to function effectively, especially when influenced
by the acrimonious relationship of party leaders (Dodik,
Tihic, and Silajdzic). End Summary.

First Session of the Municipal Assembly
--------------


2. (SBU) As a result of delays in the Central Election
Commission's final confirmation of the October 5 municipal
election results in Srebrenica, the Municipal Assembly's
inaugural session finally took place on November 22. CEC
tallies confirmed the 27-seat assembly is composed of: SDA
(seven seats),SNSD (seven),SBiH (four),Alliance of Serb
Parties (three),SDP-BiH (two),Snaga Bosne (two),DNS (one),
and one national minority: a Montenegrin from the party SDU
2002, who took a seat in the assembly with only 16 votes.
Prior to the municipal election, SDA, SBiH, and SNSD
discussed forming a coalition government in Srebrenica, which
was cemented at the November 22 session. The three parties
together command 18 of the Municipal Assembly's 27 votes. As
reported previously, Osman Suljic, the SDA candidate, won the
vote for Mayor of Srebrenica.

Assembly, Mayor's Administration Cross Ethnic Lines
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3. (SBU) By statute, the Speaker of the Assembly and the
Mayor of Srebrenica cannot be from the same ethnic group.
With Suljic a Bosniak, installed as mayor, SNSD's Radomir
Pavlovic (Serb) held onto his position as Speaker in the
assembly. Zulfo Sahilovic (SBiH, Bosniak) was elected Deputy
Speaker. And, as promised, Suljic nominated two Serbs to
serve as assistant mayor (Note: there are five assistant
mayors in Srebrenica. All five are chosen by the mayor, and
head a department within the Municipal Administration. End
Note). Most notably, Suljic appointed second-place finisher
in the mayoral race Milos Vukosavljevic (SNSD) as head of the
Economic Department (see reftel B, C). Though one local
business contact voiced concern about Vukosavljevic's
knowledge of economic matters, he was quick to affirm the
wisdom of bringing the second-place candidate (and one from a
different ethnic group) into the administration.

Srebrenica Secessionist Named Deputy Mayor
--------------


4. (C) Suljic's team also includes Camil Durakovic, who will
serve as Deputy Mayor. Durakovic, a divisive figure, was
president of the "Initiative Committee for the Special Status
of Srebrenica," a 2007 attempt to bring about the secession
of Srebrenica from Republika Srpska. However, a few months
later, when it became apparent that the movement had not
gained political traction, it was abandoned. In early 2008,
Ahmetovic proposed Durakovic as SDA's mayoral candidate for
Srebrenica. Only our intervention with Tihic convinced SDA
to alter its plans to field Durakovic as their candidate.
Local Bratunac-based politician Refik Begic and others told
us that Ahmetovic was likely the political force behind
Durakovic's selection as Deputy mayor.

SARAJEVO 00001900 002 OF 002



Suljic at the Helm: Saying the Right Things
--------------


5. (C) In meetings with us on his first week as mayor, Suljic
recalled that the last time he had been in the mayor's office
was when it was his as wartime "president" of Srebrenica.
Suljic admitted that the choice of Durakovic was not his, but
that he was now mayor and would be making the key decisions.
Begic privately made a similar observation, suggesting Suljic
would turn Durakovic into "a potted plant" within the
administration. Begic was optimistic about Suljic's
capabilities as a manager. Suljic further burnished his
leadership credentials in a thoughtful December 12 interview,
clarifying his commitment to Srebrenica as part of the RS,
and announcing that all major religious holidays would be
days off for all municipal employees in Srebrenica,
regardless of ethnicity.


6. (C) Two USG-funded project openings, in which Suljic and
Pavlovic participated along with the Ambassador, widely
received positive media coverage and served as an ongoing
demonstration of active USG support to Srebrenica. Meeting
privately with the Ambassador, Suljic and Pavlovic
re-affirmed their focus on economic development, inter-ethnic
cooperation, and intention to coordinate with both Sarajevo
and Banja Luka politicians. Both planned to travel to meet
with RS and Federation Prime Ministers in the near future to
discuss Srebrenica's development, taking along a group of
local Serb and Bosniak political leaders.

Not So Good on the Follow-Through
--------------


7. (C) Despite pre- and post-election proclamations of
interest in attracting more investment to Srebrenica and
focusing on job creation, Suljic's first few months leave
room for concern. According to sources in the economic unit
of the Mayor's office, Suljic rarely meets with them, cannot
articulate his plans for economic development and often
appears too overwhelmed to deal with details or specifics.
Despite Begic's prediction that Durakovic would become a
potted plant, he has been the one, vice Suljic, to
participate in economic development planning activities, thus
far.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Though Suljic has been careful to say the right things
publicly, and to us, he has yet to establish a track record
of accomplishment. To date, his avoidance of nationalist
rhetoric has been positive, though. Suljic will be a key
player in closing the chapter on a Bosniak-majority polity,
though, and thus his approach to Serbs will be especially
important when, as his term ends, Bosniaks from outside the
municipality are no longer eligible to vote in Srebrenica.
The importance of cooperative, constructive local politics
should not, therefore, be undervalued. Time will tell if
Suljic's promises made become promises kept.
ENGLISH