EAC MEETING DECEMBER 19, 2008

S E C R E T SARAJEVO 001886

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DS, D, P, M, CA S/CT, INR, EUR, EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2033
TAGS: ASEC BK KCRM PINR PREL PTER
SUBJECT: EAC MEETING DECEMBER 19, 2008

REF: A. SARAJEVO 1655

B. SARAJEVO 1803

Classified By: Classified by AMB Charles English for
Reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (U) The core EAC met on December 19, 2008 to discuss
threat information against FSO Raffi Gregorian, seconded as
Principal Deputy High Representative at OHR. The meeting was
chaired by the A/DCM and was attended by RSO, Legatt, OPA,
ADMIN, POL, DAO, RAO, and AID.



2. (U) On December 18, 2008, the newspaper Dnevni Avaz
recieved a letter from an unknown group, Serb Revenge,
postmarked Evanston, Illinois, which stated that "The person
who liquidates that American coyote and fascist Gregorian
will get two million dollars from our organization SO (Srpska
Osveta - Serb Revenge)". The newspaper published the letter
on the front page on December 19, 2008, under a large font
headline "Offer for Two Million Dollars to Liquidate Raffi
Gregorian?!". Early indications are that the letter is from
an individual, who is portraying himself as a group and who
has no means to fulfill his threats. Nor does he have the
means to pay others to carry out the act defined in his
letter. OPA released a press statement stating same and
condemning the threat.


3. (C) The suspected letter writer is a person of interest in
a current FBI investigation involving threatening letters
sent to numerous officials in the Balkans. Legatt is
following up with FBI Chicago Field Office. Bosnian police
are conducting DNA and fingerprint analysis on previous
letters suspected to be from Subject - results pending.
Bosnian police provided photocopies of 13 previous letters
and fingerprints for comparision with letters currently in
possession of FBI CFO. Note: RSO departs Sarajevo enroute
Chicago for R and R on 12/20/08. She will hand carry the
evidence and liaise directly with FBI CFO.


4. (S/NF) RSO briefed the EAC on Gregorian's current security
profile and steps taken to increase his personal security, as
follows: Gregorian currently has an FSN portal-to-portal
protective detail, armed with 9mm Glocks and Colt SMGs. His
motorcade consists of a fully armored limo and suburban. His
residence meets all standards for this high crime post, with
alarm, panic button, and safehaven. He has a ballistic vest
at his residence and one in the limo. Due to his status with
OHR, there is a one-man static local police post in front of
his residence, which is manned 24/7. For at least the next
two weeks, RSO has increased the protective detail to 24/7,
supplementing the bodyguards (BG) with local guard force
(LGF) members who have been cross-trained as BGs. Midnight
residence watch will consist of three LGF/BGs, also armed
with 9 mm Glocks and SMGs. One of the regular BGs will act as
the Midnight AIC. The LGF Midnight Shift Leader and the
Mobile Patrol will check the residence at least three times
per night. RSO staff reviewed safehaven security procedures
and the alarm system with Mrs. Gregorian, who was also
provided with another panic button. RSO requested and
received additional local police support. For at least the
next two weeks, the static police post will now be manned by
three officers 24/7. RSO is reviewing the need for a
protective detail for Mrs. Gregorian - report pending. RSO
will request local police lead vehicle if/when Gregorian
travels outside of Sarajevo. EAC concurred with these
measures.


5. (S/NF) The EAC then discussed the current security
environment, and determined that at this time, the threat is
specific against Raffi Gregorian. No Emergency Action Plan
(EAP) trip wires for Civil Unrest have been crossed and no
warden message is needed. EAC members will continue to
review EAP tripwires, and will meet again in two weeks, or
sooner if needed, as this threat unfolds.


6. (C) The threat against PDHR Gregorian comes amid
long-standing animosity toward Gregorian from the Republika
Srpska (RS) government and RS PM Milorad Dodik. Dodik since
summer 2008 has engaged in an extensive media campaign
against Gregorian designed to discredit, and even vilify,
him. He has accused Gregorian of launching a campaign to
oust Dodik by ordering the State Investigation and Protection
Agency (SIPA) to probe several RS projects for traces of
corruption (ref A),and -- in so doing -- of "placing himself
at the forefront of foreigners who are against the RS." The
RS government on November 27 then filed a "criminal
complaint" against Gregorian and eight other individuals in
connection with the State Prosecutor's investigation of this
alleged corruption, accusing them of forming a criminal
conspiracy working to "damage" the RS government and
jeopardize the reputation of the RS as a stable community
(ref B). The environment this campaign has created has the
potential to transform threats, however empty in themselves,
into dangerous actions. Unfortunately, the decision to
publish the threat on the front page -- above the fold -- of
Bosnia's most widely-circulated daily had the effect of
amplifying the letter and publicly proclaiming a bounty on
PDHR Gregorian.

ENGLISH