BOSNIA - CROAT COUNCIL PROPOSAL STRIKES A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 001861

SIPDIS

EUR/SCE (HYLAND, FOOKS),NSC FOR HELGERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PHUM KDEM BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - CROAT COUNCIL PROPOSAL STRIKES A
NATIONALIST NERVE

Classified By: Michael J. Murphy. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Prime Ministers of the three
Croat-majority cantons declared on December 9 that they
intend to form an Inter-Cantonal Council by the end of
December. The chairmen of the two parties that lead these
cantons -- the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ)-1990 and the
Croatian Party of Rights (HSP),both of which suffered defeat
in the October 5 municipal elections -- claim that their goal
is a more effective lobby for Croat economic and political
interests with the Federation government. Bosniaks, however,
see this as a smokescreen for reconstituting the Croat
"Self-Rule" movement of 2001. Indeed, the West Herzegovina
Cantonal Assembly's Declaration in April, which called for
the creation of this Council, outlined many of the same goals
of the Self-Rule movement, including eliminating Federation
institutions and legislation that "interfere" with cantonal
competencies. Moreover, two of the leaders of this
initiative could tell us very little about their concrete
plans even as they pontificated ad nauseum about the lack of
Croat cantonal rights. Bosniak parties -- as well as the
leading Croat party, HDZ-BiH -- are skeptical that the
Council will succeed due to constitutional impediments and
the narrow public support for HDZ-1990 and HSP, but they are
wary of the possibility of such an initiative driving a wedge
between Bosniaks and Croats. END SUMMARY.

Election Losers Appeal to Nationalism
--------------


2. (SBU) The Prime Ministers of the three Croat-majority
cantons -- Herzegovina-Neretva (Srecko Boras, HDZ-1990),West
Herzegovina (Zvonko Jurisic, HSP),and Livno (Nediljko Rimac,
HDZ-1990) -- announced on December 9 that they intend to form
an Inter-Cantonal Council by the end of December. Party
leaders from HDZ-1990 and HSP, both of which suffered defeat
in the October 5 municipal elections, spearheaded this
initiative. Following the announcement of the impending
formation of the Council, Martin Raguz -- HDZ-1990 deputy
chairman and president of the Inter-Cantonal Council in 2001
-- publicly stated that the two parties were constituting the
Council in an effort to address the Federation budget deficit
and privatization delays, the political crisis within the
entity, and the perceived misallocation by the state-level
government of funds owed to these three cantons. Raguz
stressed that the Council could ensure attention to these
issues through "structural changes, not mere reshuffling of
government." Although Raguz publicly rejected the notion
that the Council represents an attempt to create a Croat
"third entity," media and political opponents are skeptical.

West Herzegovina Canton Forecasts Council
--------------


3. (SBU) The Assembly of West Herzegovina Canton, a heavily
Croat-dominated region, at its session in April adopted a
"Declaration on the Constitutional and Legal Position of the
West Herzegovina Canton." The Declaration declared -- inter
alia -- that the Assembly would take "all available legal and
political measures" to strengthen cantonal institutions,
advocate the abolishment of Federation institutions and
legislation that "interfere" with cantonal competencies, and
establish an Inter-Cantonal Council. Contrary to Raguz's
assertions about the Council's intended purpose, the
Declaration focuses solely on buttressing cantonal powers and
does not mention strengthening and streamlining the
Federation government. The Council initiative follows
Jurisic's recent proposal to unify West Herzegovina and Livno
cantons, which media and Bosniak parties interpreted as an
attempt to move toward a de facto third entity.

Alarmed Bosniaks React
--------------


4. (SBU) The announcement of the impending Inter-Cantonal
Council rattled cages within the Bosniak Party of Democratic
Action (SDA) because a Council of the same name inaugurated
the Croat Self-Rule movement in 2001. SDA accused HDZ-1990
and HSP of trying to create a de facto third entity and
stressed that the Self-Rule movement did not succeed in 2001
even though the parties creating it were politically strong.
(Note: The 2001 Inter-Cantonal Council did not pass any
major decisions, and even its minor decisions were not

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implemented. End Note) SDA VP Bakir Izetbegovic opined
publicly that the goal of the Council would be to "fight with
the domestic and international forces that defend the state
Constitution." He added that "we can very easily put (those
responsible for creating the Council) where they belong -- in
front of the Federation Constitutional Court." A Party for
BiH (SBiH) official claimed that the Council will divide
Croats and Bosniaks and "without a doubt" represents an
attempt to create a third entity. The pro-Bosniak daily
Dnevni Avaz pointed out that the goals of the Council --
providing a "framework for protecting the interests of the
Croat people in Bosnia and ensuring the full constitutional
equality of the Croat people" -- echo those of the Self-Rule
movement, which professed not to recognize the Federation or
state government.

Ljubic and Boras Stick to Their Guns
--------------


5. (C) Srecko Boras and HDZ-1990 chairman Bozo Ljubic
insisted to us that the Council was not a mask for a third
entity movement. Boras, without providing details on the
necessary steps to form the Council and specific projects it
would undertake, stressed that the Council would be simply a
"coordinating body" for Croat gripes against the Federation
government. He added that the concept of a third entity "can
be discussed in other circles -- maybe in the context of
constitutional reform -- but not in the cantons." Ljubic
stressed that the media manipulated the concept of the
Council. He echoed Boras's comments about the Council as a
coordinating mechanism, arguing that the Bosniaks had stymied
earlier Croat initiatives to create informal institutions
that would combine efforts on such key issues as health
insurance. Ljubic emphasized that the Council would have no
executive powers. He suggested that the formal creation of
the Council would require the consent of the executive
branches -- and probably parliaments -- of all three cantons.

Opponents Distance Themselves
--------------


6. (C) HDZ-BiH chairman Dragan Covic dismissed the Council
initiative to us as an attempt by his rivals to claw their
way back into a meaningful position in Croat politics by
blatantly appealing to Croat nationalism. He predicted that
their effort would come to naught (not least because they
were "incompetent"). He opined that the Council project
could benefit his party because his opponents would "finally
do something on their own instead of constantly criticizing
our party," and that that something "would fail." Publicly,
Covic labeled the proposed Council "insane" and accused his
HDZ-1990 and HSP rivals of dividing Croats by ignoring the
needs of central Bosnian and Posavina Croats. Murat Coric
(SDA),outgoing president of the Mostar City Council, shared
Covic's view that HDZ-1990 and HSP are trying to regroup
after their election loss, emphasizing that the Council would
never garner the necessary support from its coalition
partners in Mostar. He acknowledged that the canton PMs were
within their legal right to form the Council but was not
sanguine about its prospects for survival.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) The initiative to create an Inter-Cantonal Council
strikes us as a blatant attempt by HDZ-1990 and HSP to regain
some political capital after an election loss by playing to
extant nationalism, and the prospects of the initiative's
survival are probably dim. The leaders of this movement,
Raguz and Ljubic, lack the political clout and, most likely,
the stamina and determination to carry out this project.
Also, if Ljubic is right and forming this Council would
require the endorsement of the governments of all three
cantons, then the Bosniaks can use their political strength
in Herzegovina-Neretva Canton to derail at least that
canton's participation in the Council. Moreover, Covic
forecasted to us the possible impending fall of the
government in West Herzegovina Canton and the ouster of
Jurisic, which would almost certainly present another major
stumbling block to the Council. Finally, although the
Federation Constitution allows for the creation of an
Inter-Cantonal Council, it greatly limits the scope of its
activities and excludes political agreements.

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8. (C) That said, this initiative and the discourse
surrounding it have the potential to stymie the budding
cooperation between Covic and SDA chairman Sulejman Tihic on
the Prud Agreement and Federation and state government
reforms. Our impression is that Herzegovinan Croats are
inclined to interpret the Council as a down payment on a
future Croat-majority entity -- no doubt HDZ-1990's political
intent. Therefore, although legal and personality pitfalls
may stifle this particular initiative, the sentiment --
coupled with growing popular discontent among Croats toward
the Federation -- may lead to more concerning, and viable,
Croat nationalist projects down the road, and, of course,
angry Bosniak reactions to them.
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