BOSNIA - MAYORALTY BATTLES MAY THREATEN TENUOUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 001811

SIPDIS

EUR/SCE (HYLAND, FOOKS),NSC FOR HELGERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PHUM KDEM BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - MAYORALTY BATTLES MAY THREATEN TENUOUS
COOPERATION BETWEEN PARTIES

REF: A. A. SARAJEVO 1655

B. B. SARAJEVO 1728

Classified By: Michael J. Murphy. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Following the October 5 municipal elections,
parties are measuring their strength not only in terms of the
number of mayoralties and city council positions they hold,
but in the concentration of power in the areas of importance
to each ethnic group. As such, the Croatian Democratic Union
(HDZ)-BiH is desperate to hold onto the "Croat capital" of
Mostar, the leading Bosniak parties are battling to govern
Sarajevo, and the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats
(SNSD) is dueling with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) to
spearhead the first post-Supervisory government in Brcko
District. Our interest in the races in Mostar and Sarajevo
-- where SDA captured the majority of votes -- lies in the
implications for the budding cooperation between the Party of
Democratic Action (SDA) and HDZ-BiH on key reforms. If SDA
wins the mayoralty in both cities, HDZ-BiH will be under
extreme pressure from the Croat populace and nationalist
Croat rivals to eschew compromise with SDA in the name of
protecting Croat interests. Meanwhile, in Brcko -- which is
almost entirely a USG project -- we want to ensure that a
stable government is in place that supports USG priorities in
Brcko, particularly respect and support for the Final Award,
which has been critical to ensuring that Brcko does not again
become a flashpoint for ethnic tensions or conflict in
Bosnia. END SUMMARY.

Flashpoints Unfold: Mostar, Sarajevo, Brcko
--------------


2. (SBU) The results of the October 5 municipal elections
dictated the ruling coalitions and mayors in all
municipalities except Mostar, Sarajevo, and Brcko. The
candidate who garnered the most votes won the mayoralty, and
the parties who captured 15 percent or more of the vote will
form the municipal government. Mostar and Brcko, however, do
not directly elect their mayors; the governing coalitions
appoint the mayors. The City of Sarajevo's four
municipalities elect their mayors directly, but the mayor of
the City is selected through negotiation of the ruling
parties in the Sarajevo City Council, whose councilors are
elected by the four municipal councils. Parties have been
enmeshed in negotiations in all three cities since the
Central Election Commission certified the results of the
elections on November 5.

Bosniaks Vie to Oust Incumbent Croats in Mostar
-------------- --


3. (C) The battle for Mostar, the "Croat capital" and
traditionally a Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ)-BiH
stronghold, now pits HDZ-BiH against the Party of Democratic
Action (SDA) and the National Party of Work for Progress
(NSRzB),the latter two of which garnered surprisingly strong
election results. SDA captured the largest number of votes,
with NSRzB taking second place and HDZ-BiH taking third. All
three parties, which publicly and privately state that they
are seeking the mayoralty, are courting the Social Democratic
Party (SDP),HDZ-1990, the Croatian Party of Rights
(HSP)-BiH, and the Party for BiH (SBiH) as coalition
partners. SDA VP Bakir Izetbegovic told us privately that it
would be better for the country to have a Croat as mayor of
Mostar. Nonetheless, if SDA and Bosniaks were to cede the
city to HDZ-BiH after a majority of the populace voted for
SDA, it would cause significant rifts between the Mostar
branch of SDA and the party's Sarajevo-based leadership,
according to Izetbegovic. Indeed, SDA's mayoral candidate in
Mostar, Suad Hasandedic, told us that SDA will not support an
HDZ-BiH mayor under any circumstances. He added that SDA in
Mostar is still bitter because it lost control of East Mostar
under the 2004 Mostar Statute, and that the mayoralty would
help compensate for the loss. (Note: Former HighRep Paddy
Ashdown in January 2004 imposed the statute, which
consolidated Mostar's municipal governments -- half of which
SDA controlled, and half of which HDZ-BiH controlled -- into
a single city administration with entrenched power-sharing
mechanisms. End Note.)

Croats Struggle for the "Croat Capital"
--------------



4. (C) The stakes are high in Mostar for HDZ-BiH, which is
hoping to use the municipal election results to eliminate its
floundering rival HDZ-1990 as a significant force in Croat
politics. HDZ-BiH's efforts would suffer a significant
setback if there were a public perception among Croats that
the party lost the "Croat capital." Incumbent mayor Ljubo
Beslic (HDZ-BiH) told us that his party is vigorously
courting other parties -- as well as individual city
councilors, particularly Croats from NSRzB -- to support his
reappointment. Beslic stressed to us that HDZ-BiH is under
immense pressure from the Croat populace and the Catholic
Church, which Beslic said is disappointed with erstwhile
Church beneficiary HDZ-1990 and is now standing behind
HDZ-BiH. Our contacts in Mostar told us that HDZ-BiH
chairman Dragan Covic struck a deal with Mijo Brajkovic, CEO
of the influential Mostar company Aluminij. According to the
deal, Covic would assist in the privatization of Aluminij if
Brajkovic convinced Aluminij Executive Manager Jure Musa
(HDZ-1990) to support Beslic and to persuade two other
HDZ-1990 councilors to do the same. Musa and one other
HDZ-1990 councilor have since voted for the HDZ-BiH candidate
for president of the Mostar Croat caucus, suggesting that
HDZ-BiH is making progress in its efforts to work behind the
scenes to secure the support of individual councilors from
other parties.

Sarajevo: Battle of the Bosniaks
--------------


5. (C) SDA is also embroiled in the battle for mayor of
Sarajevo, with SDP as the main opponent. SDA and SDP each
secured a majority in two of Sarajevo's four municipalities.
SDA proposed as its mayoral candidate a Croat priest not
affiliated with SDA, which Izetbegovic told us was an attempt
to pacify HDZ-BiH into allowing SDA the mayoralty in Mostar.
SDA's proposed candidate did not accept the position, and SDA
has not yet identified an alternative. (Note: The Catholic
Church openly opposed the candidate's selection, one reason
that the candidate -- who is widely admired within Sarajevo
circles as a tolerant, pro-Bosnian figure -- withdrew from
consideration. End Note.) SDP on November 19 declared party
VP Alija Behmen as its candidate after several other SDP
insiders turned down the position, but some SDP insiders
question his leadership capabilities and are critical of the
party's decision. Sarajevo, traditionally an SDP stronghold,
is important to party leader Zlatko Lagumdzija because
control of its mayoralty would be another sign of the party's
rising political fortunes since its disappointing performance
in the 2006 general elections. But Izetbegovic has stressed
to us that Lagumdzija will not be able to count on SDA's
acquiescence, due to longstanding distrust between the
parties, and that SDA will continue the fight for Sarajevo
for as long as it takes.

Brcko: All Major Parties Likely to Play a Role
-------------- -


6. (C) Parties at the national level are far less absorbed in
the mayor race in Brcko than in Mostar and Sarajevo, partly
because Brcko's mayor -- per the District statute -- has far
fewer powers than the mayors in Mostar and Sarajevo. The
ruling coalition, once formed, will nominate the mayor,
Assembly Speaker, and Deputy Speakers. PDHR Raffi Gregorian
told us that SNSD and SDP are each trying to form a
coalition, but neither can gather the requisite majority.
(Note: By statute, a coalition in Brcko capable of nominating
the mayor will require a simple majority of 31 mandates and
the inclusion of at least two mandates from each ethnic
group. End Note.) SDA has emerged as the kingmaker, as both
SNSD and SDP are willing to work with SDA. SDA -- at
Gregorian's urging -- will host coalition talks with SNSD,
SDP, HDZ-BiH, the Croatian Peasants' Party (HSS) coalition,
and the small Serb parties. Gregorian expects that SNSD,
which holds the largest number of mandates within the
prospective coalition, would nominate the mayor. The
Bosniaks, then, would choose the Speaker, and the Croats
would choose the Deputy Speaker. The other major parties in
the prospective coalition have told Gregorian that they are
comfortable with SNSD's choice for mayor, despite the party's
unconstructive approach to addressing the PIC's Brcko
objective as part of its OHR closure strategy. (Note: Some
SNSD officials recently even suggested to us that they

believe Brcko has outlived its usefulness. End Note.)
Gregorian told us that he will urge the new Brcko government
to pass a resolution pledging to support the Final Award and
constitutional amendments that codify Brcko's status and
ensure Brcko has access to the Constitutional Court (see Ref
A for more details on the debate on constitutional amendments
for Brcko).

Comment
--------------


7. (C) The mayoral races in Sarajevo and Mostar are important
to us because the outcome of the political battles for
control of these cities, particularly between SDA and HDZ-BiH
for Mostar, could have implications for inter-party
cooperation at the national level. If HDZ-BiH loses the
Mostar mayoralty to SDA, the Croat populace -- with
HDZ-1990's encouragement -- will undoubtedly claim that the
Bosniaks are squeezing Croats out of leadership positions
within even "Croat areas" of the Federation. This sentiment
would bode ill for the tenuous but budding cooperation
between SDA and HDZ-BiH at the national level. This
cooperation is essential to ensure progress on the Odzak
Agreement (Ref B),encourage government reforms within the
Federation, and stymie RS PM Milorad Dodik's attempts to pit
the Bosniaks and Croats against each other to advance his
nationalist agenda. Our conversations with SDA officials
suggest to us that the SDA leadership is aware of the stakes
of these mayoral races. SDA, though, is attempting to
balance the need to maintain positive relations with HDZ-BiH
with competing demands from some within SDA to claim Mostar
as "rightfully theirs" after capturing the majority vote
there. HDZ-BiH has shown that it is willing to strike
under-the-table deals with individual councilors in order to
keep Mostar (without engaging in a public, frontal assault on
SDA),a strategy that has worked for the party in the past.


8. (C) Forming a stable government in Brcko is important to
us because this government will be the first to lead the
District after American Supervision ends. Bosniak leaders
periodically convey concerns that Brcko, given its history,
could again emerge as a flashpoint, especially without an
American Supervisor present. PDHR Gregorian is confident
that the checks and balances mandated in the Brcko statute
lay the foundation for a stable coalition and ethnic balance,
even if an SNSD mayor chooses to pursue a destructive agenda.
We will keep a careful eye on Brcko as the coalition
negotiations progress, encouraging party leaders to place
suitable personnel in positions of power and subsequently to
ensure that they perform their duties in a manner that
ensures the District's stability in the post-Supervisory
period. In general, Brcko's local leadership has been
inclined to place Brcko's needs ahead of party politics.
With this in mind, we will also encourage the new Brcko
government to engage their party leaders to take the steps
necessary to ensure that Supervision ends in a manner that
protects Brcko's long-term interests and is consistent with
the Brcko objective laid out by the PIC as part of its
5-plus-2 strategy for OHR's closure.
ENGLISH