BOSNIA - DODIK,S PARTY PRESENTS MORE DEMANDS AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 001585

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (TEXT)

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR (JONES),EUR/SCE (HYLAND/FOOKS)
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/08/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - DODIK,S PARTY PRESENTS MORE DEMANDS AND
WARNS AGAIN OF BOSNIA,S DISSOLUTION IF THEY ARE NOT MET

REF: A) SARAJEVO 1561 B) SARAJEVO 1547 C) SARAJEVO
1530 D) SARAJEVO 1520 E) SARAJEVO 1519

Classified By: DCM Judith B. Cefkin for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In two recent op-eds, Rajko Vasic, Secretary
General of Republika Srpska (RS) PM Milorad Dodik's Alliance
of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD),presents a
state-level investigation into possible corruption in the RS
and the 13-year post-Dayton effort to strengthen the state as
part of a conspiracy designed to destroy the RS. Vasic
fingers the Bosniaks and elements of the international
community as organizers of the conspiracy. In the first
piece, which appeared on October 4, Vasic essentially
demanded that state-level authorities end their
investigation, which he implies is illegal. Vasic's October
8 piece, which appeared after the municipal elections and
cannot be characterized as aimed at winning votes, calls for
a return to the level of autonomy the RS enjoyed immediately
post-Dayton (an outcome that would make Bosnia an unworkable
state incapable of joining the EU and NATO). Vasic is clear
about the potential consequences, if RS demands are ignored:
Bosnia will dissolve. Much in Vasic's op-eds echo themes
presented by Dodik in his September 18 RFE interview. The
implication of both pieces is that the dissolution would be
the result of a defensive response by the RS to what he
portrays as efforts to destroy it. END SUMMARY

SIPA: Part of a Large Conspiracy Aimed at the RS
-------------- ---


2. (C) In an October 4 op-ed published in Fokus, an RS-based
daily with a strong Serb-nationalist editorial line, Vasic
casts State Investigation and Protection Agency's (SIPA)
confrontation with the RS government over the latter's
refusal to comply with a subpoena (Refs A,B,C,E) as part of a
broader conspiracy aimed at the RS's destruction. (Note:
SIPA's request for information from the RS government was
made in connection with an investigation into alleged
corruption associated with the construction of the RS
government building. End Note) Vasic suggested that SIPA was
working for the international community and Bosniaks, calling
the law enforcement organization a "lever of coercion...
logistically supported and instructed by... unidentified
ambassadors and beys." He also asserted that SIPA, like all
other state-level institutions, was created "not to
demonstrate the efficiency of the self-proclaimed state and
state bodies, but to suppress the overall efficiency of
Republika Srpska and prove the criminal ch
aracter of everything that exists there."

Answer These Questions Three
--------------


3. (C) Echoing and amplifying arguments made by the RS
government in its September 11 conclusion and by Dodik in his
September 25 letter to HighRep Lajcak, Vasic suggested that
SIPA's request for information had been either improper or
illegal. With this in mind, Vasic posed several questions
that required answers, implying that those answers would
substantiate RS claims about SIPA's actions. Among them were
the following:

-- Why did SIPA request documents without a court warrant and
outside court procedures? (Comment: Under Bosnian law, SIPA
has the right, without a warrant, to ask a public agency like
the RS tax authority to assist an investigation by providing
information. In any case, the initial SIPA request made clear
reference to the order from the State Prosecutor's Office.
In addition, OHR's Legal Department has told us that RS
government agencies reportedly had cooperated with such
investigations in the past. End Comment)

-- Why did the warrants transpire later? (Comment: A
"warrant" did not transpire later -- there was no need for a
warrant under Bosnian law. After the RS government published
its September 11 conclusion and sent its September 19 letter
indicating that it would not cooperate with SIPA, the State
Prosecutor's Office replied with a letter to the RS
government reminding it of its obligations under Bosnian law
to cooperate, and reiterating that the State Prosecutor's
Office had asked SIPA to gather the information. Vasic's
op-ed sought to turn this exchange, initiated by the RS, into
a conspiracy. End Comment)


--On what basis had the Office of the Prosecutor initiated
the whole procedure? (Comment: Evidence of corruption in the
RS had already been supplied to prosecutors. In any case, as
we, OHR, and others have underscored to the RS government and
RS officials, the RS government (i.e., the executive branch)
is not competent to decide on jurisdictional issues, as
Vasic's question implied. Nor, for that matter, is the RS
judiciary; only the Courts of BiH are competent to determine
questions of jurisdiction. End Comment)

Any Answers (Other Than Mine) Are Invalid (or Worse)
-------------- --------------


4. (C) After having posed the questions, Vasic then dismisses
them by saying that it really does not matter how these legal
questions are answered by state-level or international
community representatives (and, as noted, there are sound
legal arguments to respond to each of them),because, he
implies, these very people are part of the conspiracy to
destroy the RS and cannot be trusted. The outcome, if
state-level law enforcement and judicial institutions insist
on their legal right to enforce the rule of law, Vasic
concludes, will be the further disintegration of the Bosnian
state. "Regardless of how the local and foreign idiots
answer the above questions, the result will be the same:
further loss of confidence in BiH, further self-destruction
of the state...; further prevention of the establishment of
new joint functions and progress on our European path."

Four Elements of the Grand Conspiracy
--------------


5. (C) Vasic stresses that the SIPA request for information
from the RS government is only one element of the conspiracy
aimed at the RS's destruction. The second part of what Vasic
labels "the project" is "the genocidization of Republika
Srpska" (an obvious reference to Bosniak member of the
Tri-Presidency Haris Silajdzic's rhetoric). The third part,
he argues, is "the deliberate self-destruction of the
(Federation)," which "will be used as evidence that entities
are not sustainable." This explains Bosniak opposition to
issues of concern to Croats, such as the creation of a third
Croat-language public broadcasting television channel or the
creation of a third, Croat-majority entity. The goal of
Bosniak politicians, he concludes, "is to conquer the whole
of Bosnia and Herzegovina, both Serbs and Croats." Finally,
the fourth part of the conspiracy is to secure the support of
Serb "quislings," whom Vasic identifies as SNSD's opposition
-- the Serb Democratic Party (SDS).

Good, Strong, Clear Entity Boundaries Make Good Neighbors
-------------- --------------


6. (C) In an October 8 post-election op-ed, which also
appeared in Fokus, Vasic presented SNSD's case for returning
to the RS competencies previously transferred to the state
and restoring the 1995 Dayton state. Vasic presented his
case, which echoed arguments made by Dodik in his September
18 RFE interview (Ref D),in earthy, populist terms designed
to appeal to the average Bosnian Serb. He notes that right
after the 1992-1995 war the inter-entity boundary line (IEBL)
was clearly marked, both literally -- "with metal pipes with
red-painted tin on the top" -- and in terms of the
authorities possessed by the RS. This began to change, Vasic
argues, because the SDS "started ass-kissing foreigners" in
order to remain in power in the RS and "plunder" it as long
as possible." As a consequence, some RS competencies "were
stolen, others removed so that there are now borders between
us" (i.e., the two entities).


7. (C) The implication of Vasic's argument is that 1995 were
halcyon days for the RS, and he makes clear that it is now
time to re-build the barriers that previously existed between
the entities. "Once again we should clearly mark the
interentity line." Vasic attacks plans for constitutional
reform as a further attempt to abolish the RS, presenting the
Venice Commission and its recommendations as a stalking horse
for anti-Serb Bosniaks. (Note: Silajdzic makes regular
reference to the "Venice Commission recommendations," which
among other things, call for reform of the entity voting
system. The recent Parliamentary Assembly Council of Europe
resolution on Bosnia, which so angered Serbs, also referred
to the Venice Commission's recommendations. End Note)


Vasic's Solution: Roll Back Reforms
--------------


8. (C) Vasic concludes by laying out SNSD's proposed
constitutional remedies for reinvigorating the IEBL. These
include:

-- Republika Srpska is untouchable, unchangeable, and
unmodifiable.
-- Entity-based voting should be cemented.
-- Competencies of BiH and entities should be brought back in
line with the Dayton distribution of competencies.
-- Absolute tripartite system in everything at the BiH level.
-- Absolute consensus in decision making processes on the BiH
level.
-- Abolition of the armed forces.

In essence, Vasic proposes the roll back of most, if not all,
of the reforms of the last 13 years, that the entities
become, in effect, states within the state, and the
establishment of decision-making mechanisms at the
state-level that would strengthen the Serbs' already
formidable ability to prevent the state from functioning.


Comment: Your Have Been Warned
--------------


9. (C) In both his October 4 and October 8 op-eds Vasic is
clear about the consequences for Bosnia if the RS demands he
presents are not met (i.e., SIPA and the State Prosecutor
drop its investigation into alleged corruption associated
with the construction of the RS government building;
"restoration" of the IEBL). On October 4, Vasic concludes
that failure to heed his warnings will result in a "one way
ticket from Bratislava to Podgorica;" on October 8, "the fall
of the former Yugoslavia will end in Bosnia and Herzegovina."
In other words, Vasic predicts the dissolution of Bosnia,
and he strongly implies that this outcome will have been
forced on the RS by conspiratorial, uncompromising Bosniaks
and representatives of the international community. The core
themes of Vasic's op-eds echo those presented by Dodik in his
September 18 RFE interview. The first underscores that the
RS is prepared for, perhaps even seeks, a confrontation with
the state and the international community over the SIPA
subpoena. The
second reinforces our view that SNSD remains determined to
pursue the vigorous anti-state agenda it has pursued over the
last couple years whatever the costs.
ENGLISH