Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08SARAJEVO1492
2008-09-18 13:31:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy Sarajevo
Cable title:  

BOSNIA - DIVISIONS, DIVISIONS, AND MORE DIVISIONS

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PINR PREL KJUS EU BK 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO5894
OO RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHVJ #1492/01 2621331
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 181331Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8958
INFO RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JCS WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 001492 

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR (JONES),EUR/SCE (HYLAND/FOOKS)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREL KJUS EU BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - DIVISIONS, DIVISIONS, AND MORE DIVISIONS
DOMINATE TALKS WITH BOSNIAN POLITICAL LEADERS.

REF: SARAJEVO 1418

Classified By: Ambassador Charles English. Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 001492

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR (JONES),EUR/SCE (HYLAND/FOOKS)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREL KJUS EU BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - DIVISIONS, DIVISIONS, AND MORE DIVISIONS
DOMINATE TALKS WITH BOSNIAN POLITICAL LEADERS.

REF: SARAJEVO 1418

Classified By: Ambassador Charles English. Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: On September 9, as part of his two day visit
to Bosnia, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European
Affairs Stuart Jones met with Republika Srpska (RS) Prime
Minister Milorad Dodik and had dinner with political leaders
from the six parties that make up Bosnia's state-level
governing coalition and the leading opposition party. In his
bilateral with DAS Jones, Dodik stressed his commitment to
Dayton and Bosnia's EU path, and argued that he had played a
constructive role in Bosnian politics by, inter alia,
preventing an adverse reaction from Bosnian Serbs to Kosovo's
independence or to the arrest of Radovan Karadzic. He
characterized his comments about an RS referendum on
independence as a reaction to calls for the abolition of the
RS by Bosniak politicians. Jones welcomed Dodik's comments,
but reiterated the USG's overall concern about the patterns
of statements and actions we were seeing from him and his
government. At the dinner, conversation focused on the
international presence in Bosnia and constitutional reform.
Political leaders' views expressed generally coincided with
their public comments on both issues. The Bosniaks stressed
the importance of continued international presence in Bosnia,
including international participation in a constitutional
reform process. These views were echoed by the Croats. The
Serbs argued that the time for an international role in
Bosnia had passed; local leaders needed to resolve their
problems on their own, they maintained. The Serbs also said
that they would refuse to participate in a constitutional
reform process that did not take as its basis the Dayton
constitution or ensure the continued existence of the RS.
END SUMMARY

Dodik: All's Well in the RS, But We're Under Assault
-------------- --------------



2. (C) RS PM Dodik asserted that Bosnia was stable and moving
in the right direction, citing the absence of any ethnic
violence and Bosnia's June 16 signing of the Stabilization
and Association Agreement as evidence. Dodik also stressed
that the political situation in the RS was stable and that
his government would have no problems meeting EU
requirements. Echoing themes from his reply to A/S Fried's
July 18 letter, Dodik argued that he had effectively deflated
potentially destabilizing reactions from the RS public to
Kosovo independence and Karadzic's arrest; he also asserted
that he had played a constructive role securing an agreement
on the transfer of moveable defense property to the state and
an amended BiH Election Law to allow all 1991 residents of
Srebrenica Municipality the option to vote there in the
upcoming municipal elections. Dodik also reminded DAS Jones
that he and his party had supported the U.S.-brokered package
of constitutional amendments in April 2006. Dodik said that
he had accepted that Bosnia must have "one address when
dealing with the EU," but noted that "the RS must be involved
as well; not to obstruct, but so the RS knows what is going
on, what the RS has to do for Europe."


3. (C) Dodik acknowledged that some of his public statements
might be perceived as inflammatory, but argued that his
comments were simply a reaction to those made by
Sarajevo-based politicians, such as Bosniak member of the
Tri-Presidency Haris Silajdzic, who refuses to recognize the
RS and/or calls for its abolition. Dodik stressed that he
had no intention of pursing RS secession, implying that his
frequent references to an RS referendum on independence were
tactical responses to political pressure from Bosniaks
designed to preserve his credibility among the RS electorate,
not an expression of his strategic objective. Dodik
complained that he and the RS were under constant assault by
Federation-based politicians, Federation-based media, and
elements of the international community. The aim was to
"criminalize" the RS, Dodik said, adding that this campaign
posed a greater threat to Bosnia's territorial integrity and
sovereignty than anything he or his government was saying or
doing in the RS. Dodik complained bitterly about Principal
Deputy High Representative (PDHR) Gregorian, implying that
Gregorian was leading a conspiracy against him. Dodik
bluntly said that he was "not going to put up with it
anymore." More generally, Dodik argued that it was time for
the international community to stop playing such an intrusive
role in Bosnia.


SARAJEVO 00001492 002 OF 003


U.S. Concern About Dodik's Statements and Actions
-------------- --------------


4. (C) DAS Jones conveyed A/S Fried's thanks to Dodik for his
considered response to A/S Fried's July 18 letter, but
reiterated the USG's overall concern about the patterns of
statements and actions we were seeing from him and his
government. Jones stressed that a stronger Bosnian state did
not mean a weaker RS, underscoring that state-building
reforms necessary for EU accession were not directed against
the RS or Bosnian Serbs. Jones also reminded Dodik that the
U.S. had regularly criticized calls for the abolition of the
RS and underscored that any change in Bosnia's constitution
would require consensus among Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats.
Inflammatory rhetoric makes reaching such compromises more
difficult, Jones added. Jones noted that the U.S. wants OHR
to close, but that this would only happen if the Peace
Implementation Council (PIC) objectives and conditions were
met. With this in mind, Jones asked Dodik to engage more
constructively on Brcko and state property. Jones made clear
that the U.S. interprets the PIC's "compliance with Dayton"
condition to include no secessionist rhetoric from the RS,
including questioning the permanence of Bosnia. Finally,
Jones stressed that PDHR Gregorian has the full support and
confidence of the USG.

Dinner With Political Leaders -- Bosniaks: We Need Your Help
-------------- --------------


5. (C) A dinner with the six coalition party leaders and the
leader of the main opposition party underscored the deep,
often unbridgeable, divisions that continue to plague Bosnian
politics. (Note: Participants included: 1) Sulejman Tihic,
SDA; 2) Safet Halilovic, SBiH; 3) Milorad Dodik, SNSD; 4)
Mladen Ivanic, PDP; 5) Dragan Covic, HDZ-BiH, and 6) Bozo
Ljubic, HDZ-1990, from the governing coalition, and 7) Zlatko
Lagumdzija, SDP from the opposition. End Note) The Bosniaks
-- Tihic and Halilovic -- underscored the continued need for
a strong international presence in Bosnia, arguing that OHR
should not close until either Dayton is fully implemented or
constitutional reform has taken place. They stressed that RS
politicians immediately after the war had prevented Bosniaks
from returning to their homes, entrenching the wartime ethnic
cleansing and ensuring that the Dayton constitution's
blocking mechanism, such as entity voting, would always
function as a tool for the Serbs to prevent the state from
functioning. Tihic warned that Bosnian institutions were not
strong enough to stand on their own without international
support, let alone meet the EU accession requirements,
observing that he was not "personally optimistic about
Bosnia's future." Tihic stressed that though he preferred a
new constitution, he was willing to accept a step-by-step
approach to constitutional reform. Lagumdzija stressed the
importance of American leadership in Bosnia, particularly at
NATO, noting that further progress towards NATO membership
would ease fears among Bosnia's ethnic groups about their
intentions towards one another. Lagumdzija warned that a
European-led NATO mission in Bosnia would lack the
credibility required to keep defense reforms and the NATO
accession process on track.

Dinner With Political Leaders -- Serbs: No We Don't
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Not surprisingly, the Bosnian Serbs -- Dodik and
Ivanic -- rejected their Bosniak colleagues gloomy
assessment. Each argued that "there was no reason" Bosnia
could not meet EU requirements with the current constitution;
the problem, they argued, was one of political will. For
their part, the RS and Bosnian Serbs were ready to meet EU
requirements, but "Sarajevo-based politicians" were seeking
to use the EU accession process to impose their "preferred
constitution" at the RS's expense. Dodik attacked the
Federation-based politicians for seeking "to deprive Serbs of
their right to identify themselves as such" by opposing
inclusion of questions about ethnic identity, religion, and
language in and EU-mandated census. Dodik also complained
that the international community had imposed too many reforms
"on the RS" and that "the RS would no longer accept this
approach." Dodik and Ivanic argued that any constitutional
reform must be negotiated without international community
involvement, adding, "the RS would only accept technical
assistance" from the international community. Dodik also
underscored that he and his party would not agree to
participate in any constitutional reform talks unless it was

SARAJEVO 00001492 003 OF 003


clear that Dayton "would provide a basis for those talks."
His party supported a federal system of government and Croat
aspirations for a federal unit, but also insisted that the RS
with its current borders be one of the federal units inside
Bosnia.

Dinner With Party Leaders - Croats: Actually, We Do
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Though the Croats, particularly HDZ-1990, have
stressed their support for creation of a third entity during
the municipal election campaign, neither Croat leader
explicitly raised the issue at dinner. Instead, both Covic
and Ljubic stressed the vital role the international
community has played in Bosnia and the need for it to
continue until constitutional reform is completed. Covic
underscored the need for U.S. leadership in Bosnia,
particularly on constitutional reform. Both men argued that
the governing structures created at Dayton were too
inefficient to meet the EU accession requirements, and
underscored that the current two-entity system was
unacceptable to Croats. Ljubic noted that OHR, which he
stressed, was part of "Dayton Bosnia," was the only structure
capable of "de-blocking" the country's governing structures.
To maintain the Dayton governing structures but close OHR
would sentence Bosnia to permanent political stalemate, or
worse, Ljubic argued. Both Covic and Ljubic called on the
U.S. to lead a constitutional reform effort immediately after
the October municipal elections. Covic observed that there
was a limited window of opportunity for political parties to
reach agreement in 2009 before the 2010 election year.


ENGLISH