BOSNIA -- A HOUSE DIVIDED: MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 001449

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SUBJECT: BOSNIA -- A HOUSE DIVIDED: MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS IN
SREBRENICA

REF: A) SARAJEVO 1423 B) SARAJEVO 1112 C) SARAJEVO 816

Classified By: Michael J. Murphy, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The campaign to register 1991 residents of
Srebrenica to vote in municipal elections there has leveled
the political playing field in the municipality for Bosniaks,
whose demographic profile in Srebrenica reflects the genocide
and ethnic cleansing that took place in and around the
municipality. The number of registered Bosniaks voters now
exceeds the number of registered Serb voters, which means
Bosniaks have an opportunity to retain control of the
Srebrenica mayoralty and secure a majority in the Municipal
Assembly. Nonetheless, Bosniak success is by no means
assured. Two Bosniak candidates are competing for Bosniak
votes: one from a Party for Democratic Action (SDA) - Party
for BiH (SBiH) coalition; the other from the Social
Democratic Party (SDP). Though SDA has always dominated
Srebrenica municipal politics, Naser Oric, former wartime
commander of the enclave and a hero to many in the community,
has endorsed the SDP candidate. Though SDP has traditionally
had little success in Srebrenica, these political divisions
have the potential to split the Bosniak vote and allow one of
the two Serb candidates to win the mayoralty -- an outcome
that would likely spark yet another political crisis over
Srebrenica. A split in the Serb vote would reduce the
potential consequences of a Bosniak split. RS PM Dodik's
party has not waged a particularly energetic campaign in
Srebrenica thus far. The opposition Serb Democratic Party
(SDS) has used its Srebrenica campaign to amplify its RS-wide
campaign message that Dodik and his party are corrupt, citing
RS government-funded road construction in Srebrenica as an
example. END SUMMARY.

Voter Registration Project Levels Playing Field
-------------- --


2. (SBU) Shortly after the Bosnian parliament amended BiH
Election Law to allow all 1991 residents of Srebrenica
Municipality the option to vote there in the upcoming
municipal elections (Ref C),we met with the Central Election
Commission (CEC) to discuss its plans to implement the law
and for a voter registration/get-out-the-vote campaign. We
provided financial support for the latter, which was aimed at
Diaspora voters, displaced persons throughout Bosnia, and
1991 Srebrenica residents. (Note: The Dutch and the Swedes
also provided financial support for the CEC program. End
Note) The Srebrenica-related voter registration drive ended
on August 21. More than 5,000 1991 residents of Srebrenica,
virtually all of them Bosniaks, registered to vote as part of
this drive. According to the CEC, there are now
approximately 15,400 people registered to vote in Srebrenica;
approximately 8,300 Bosniaks, and 7,000 Serbs. However, in
view of the potential for Bosniaks to split their vote among
two leading Bosniak candidates, it is not clear that a
Bosniak will retain the mayoralty. Bosniak parties ) the
SDA, the Party for BiH (SBiH),and the Social Democratic
Party (SDP) ) are also seeking to retain control of the
27-seat Municipal Assembly. They currently hold 17 seats.

SDA's Lackluster Campaign
--------------


3. (C) SDA is the dominant Bosniak party in Srebrenica. The
incumbent mayor Abduraham Malkic is from SDA, and SDA holds
13 seats on the Assembly. After a bitter internal party
battle, SDA nominated Osman Suljic for mayor despite that
fact that many Bosniak Srebrenica residents preferred Malkic.
(Ref B) (Note: SDA and SBiH are running in coalition in
Srebrenica. SBiH has just two seats in the Municipal
Assembly. End Note) Suljic, a member of Srebrenica's wartime
presidency, was one of the last to leave Srebrenica in July
1995, sending a final plea for help before fleeing into the
woods. He is now the deputy director of a mineral company in
Tuzla, but has committed to moving back to Srebrenica should
he be elected mayor. A number of our contacts in Srebrenica
were critical of Suljic's campaign thus far, noting that it
lacked energy and urgency. They were also critical of more
senior SDA politicians for their failure to play a more
active role in the campaign.


SARAJEVO 00001449 002 OF 003


SDP's Unpopular Former Policeman
--------------


5. (C) The nominally multi-ethnic, but pre-dominantly Bosniak
Social Democratic Party (SDP) refused to join the SDA-SBiH
coalition in Srebrenica and instead chose to run its own
candidate for mayor, Hakija Meholjic. Meholjic, a Bosniak
and former wartime Srebrenica police chief, is regarded as
uneducated and divisive by most of our Srebrenica contacts,
including representatives of the Mothers' Associations.
Nonetheless, as a current Srebrenica resident who has been
active in Srebrenica politics, he has wider name recognition
than Suljic. Meholjic also played a prominent role in the
2007 Srebrenica secession and tent city movement. SDP has
traditionally had little political success in Srebrenica --
the party has just two seats on the Assembly, including
Meholjic -- but party president Zlatko Lagumdzija has told us
several times that he believes Meholjic can win. Lagumdzija
claims that Srebrenica Bosniaks were angered by SDA
Srebrenica party chief and state-level MP Sadik Ahmetovic's
successful attempt to deprive Malkic of SDA's mayoral
nomination and are now prepared to desert the party.

The War Hero Backs Meholjic
--------------


6. (C) In July, Naser Oric, the former military commander of
Srebrenica during the 1992-1995 war, publicly labeled
Suljic's nomination by SDA a "catastrophic solution8 and
endorsed Meholjic. Oric, who is a hero among Bosniak
Srebrenica residents (and many other Bosniaks) for his
1992-1993 defense of the enclave, also blamed Tihic and
Ahmetovic for the Bosniak divisions in Srebrenica. Oric, who
was convicted of war crimes in The Hague, but later acquitted
on appeal, is a villain in the eyes of Bosnian Serbs
throughout the Republika Srpska (RS). Local political
contacts have told us that Meholjic is benefiting from the
support of Naser Oric and his network of criminal associates,
though Oric himself has kept a low public profile since his
July comments. Ahmetovic has expressed concern to us
privately about Oric's growing influence in Srebrenica. On
September 5, in a not so-veiled attack on Suljic's war time
record, Meholjic suggested that Bosniak leaders "sold"
Srebrenica to the RS (and abetted genocide) when "key members
of the international community started saying publicly that
enclaves cannot survive." (Note: Oric, who left Srebrenica
in 1993, was not asked to defend it in 1995; ever since there
have been accusations that the then Bosnian leadership
deliberately allowed the enclave to fall. End Note)

SNSD's Quiet Campaign
--------------


7. (C) Four RS-based parties have seats in the current
Municipal Assembly: RS PM Dodik's Alliance of Independent
Social Democrats (SNSD) holds four seats; the Serb Democratic
Party (SDS) holds three; the Party for Democratic Progress
(PDP) holds two; and, the Democratic People's Party (DNS)
holds one. SNSD has fielded what many consider the strongest
Serb candidate for mayor, Milos Vukosavljevic. According to
our local contacts, he is not a well-known figure in
Srebrenica, but is a former mining engineer not known to have
been associated with any of the wartime atrocities of the
area. SNSD officials have told us that the party is
investing little time and energy into the campaign in rural
municipalities in the Eastern RS (Ref A). Based on
information provided by local contacts, this includes
Srebrenica -- at least thus far. Nonetheless, Radomir
Pavlovic, SNSD Chairman of the Srebrenica Municipal Assembly,
estimates Vukosavljevic would get 80 percent of the Serb
vote. (Note: By law, the Chairman of the Municipal Assembly
and the mayor cannot come from the same ethnic group. If
Vukosavljevic won the mayoralty, Pavlovic would lose his
chairmanship. End Note)

SDS Highlights Srebrenica RS-Wide
--------------


8. (C) SDS, running in coalition in Srebrenica with PDP, has
nominated Svetozar Marinkovic for mayor. Marinkovic, a
doctor by profession, is reportedly an SDS hardliner, but

SARAJEVO 00001449 003 OF 003


there have been no allegations that he was involved in any of
the wartime atrocities that took place in Srebrenica. SDS
and Marinkovic have accused Dodik and several other senior RS
officials of stealing 25 million KM (approximately 18 million
USD) by padding the contract for the resurfacing of the
Jezero-Skelani road in the municipality. (Note: The road was
part of a series of investment measures announced by the RS
in the wake of the ICJ verdict designed to improve
socio-economic conditions in Srebrenica. End Note) The
resurfacing contract was awarded to "Niskogradnja" company,
owned by a Dodik friend, Ljubo Cubic. The contract was then
expanded, according to reporting in "Dani," to include
additional resurfacing in the Srebrenica-Bratunac region. By
media calculations, the total amount of spending would have
reached around 1.6 million KM per kilometer, the highest cost
per distance in Bosnia. Dodik, predictably, has called the
charges baseless, pointed to World Bank statement praising RS
economic development, and suggested that Principal Deputy
High Representative (PDHR) Gregorian is behind these
accusations.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Srebrenica will be one of the most watched
municipalities on election night. Should Bosniak internal
divisions result in the election of a Serb mayor and Serb
control of the Municipal Assembly, Bosniaks would undoubtedly
cast the outcome as "an affirmation of genocide." This would
likely be followed by an intense, national-level media debate
among Bosniaks over "who lost Srebrenica?" In meetings with
us, Bosniaks such as the Srebrenica Mothers' Associations
have commented that they will hold SDA President Tihic and
Sadik Ahmetovic responsible should a Bosniak candidate fail
to take the mayor's office. That said, we would not be
surprised if the Bosniak political leadership sought to
transfer blame to the international community, including the
U.S., despite everything the U.S. has done to support
Srebrenica and level the political playing field for the
Bosniaks there.
ENGLISH