Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08SARAJEVO1423
2008-09-05 16:58:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Sarajevo
Cable title:  

BOSNIA - MUNICIPAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN OFFICIALY

Tags:  BK KDEM PGOV PINR PREL 
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RR RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHVJ #1423/01 2491658
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 051658Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8895
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUZEJAA/USNIC SARAJEVO
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JCS WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 001423 

SIPDIS

EUR/SCE (HYLAND, FOOKS),NSC FOR HELGERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2018
TAGS: BK KDEM PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - MUNICIPAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN OFFICIALY
OPENS

REF: A) SARAJEVO 1417 B) SARAJEVO 1222 C) SARAJEVO
1260 D) SARAJEVO 971 E) SARAJEVO 290

Classified By: Michael J. Murphy, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 001423

SIPDIS

EUR/SCE (HYLAND, FOOKS),NSC FOR HELGERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2018
TAGS: BK KDEM PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - MUNICIPAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN OFFICIALY
OPENS

REF: A) SARAJEVO 1417 B) SARAJEVO 1222 C) SARAJEVO
1260 D) SARAJEVO 971 E) SARAJEVO 290

Classified By: Michael J. Murphy, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The campaign season officially opened today
(September 5) for Bosnia's October 5 municipal elections.
Although municipal-level party officials tell us their
campaigns will focus on local-level issues, party leaders
have already begun trying to capture votes by focusing on
divisive state-level issues and appealing to nationalist
sentiment. We do not expect the election to produce any
major political shocks. That said, the elections could
strengthen the hand of Republika Srpska Prime Minister (RS
PM) Milorad Dodik if, as expected, his party captures more
mayoral positions in the RS. A poor performance by the
Bosniak Party for Democratic Action (SDA) could further
weaken party president Sulejman Tihic and strengthen the
party's nationalist wing. Competition among Croat parties is
manifesting itself in increasingly nationalist rhetoric --
including calls for a third entity -- designed to cast each
party as the strongest defender of Croat interests. END
SUMMARY

What Bosnians are Voting For
--------------


2. (SBU) The campaign for the October 5 municipal elections
officially began today (September 5),though parties have
been engaged in an unofficial campaign for several weeks now.
This is the fourth round of municipal elections since the
signing of Dayton in 1995. Voters in all 141 municipalities
and Brcko District will elect candidates for municipal
assemblies and councils, municipal mayors, the Brcko District
Assembly, the Mostar City Council, and the Banja Luka City
Assembly and mayor. Brcko and Mostar are the only two
localities in Bosnia where mayors are not directly elected,
but rather appointed by the ruling party or coalition.
(Note: The contest in Srebrenica also will be a key element
in this year's elections. We will provide a detailed
assessment of the Srebrenica pre-election environment septel.
End Note) The official campaign runs through October 3;

between October 4 and 5 the parties are required by law to
refrain from campaigning. Just over three million Bosnians
registered to vote (up from 2,700,000 in 2006),including
roughly 33,000 living abroad who will vote by mail (up from
32,000 in 2006).

Party Leaders Appeal to Nationalism
--------------


3. (C) Although municipal-level party officials tell us their
campaigns will focus on local-level issues, party leaders are
seeking to mobilize their voters by focusing on state-level
issues and appealing to nationalist sentiment. In recent
weeks, RS PM Dodik has trumpeted his party's credentials as
defenders of the RS and speculated publicly about RS
independence. HDZ-1990 President and Minister of
Transportation and Communications Bozo Ljubic called for the
creation of a third, Croat-majority entity at an August 29
"pre-election" rally. Moreover, recent events -- primarily
the arrest of Radovan Karadzic, the impending trial of the
"Algerian Six," and the battle to secure diplomas for Bosniak
students at the Stolac secondary school -- have figured into
pre-election rhetoric by leaders of all parties (Refs A, B,
and C).

Serbs: No Challenge to Dodik
--------------


4. (C) Dodik's Alliance for Independent Social Democrats
(SNSD) holds 18 mayoralties, 17 in the RS and 1 in the
Federation, Bosanski Petrovac. SNSD's main rival, the Serb
Democratic Party (SDS),holds 32. Although SNSD's popularity
has declined from its late 2006/early 2007 stratospheric
heights, the party and Dodik still enjoy widespread support
in the RS. SNSD's aim is to expand its municipal-level
government representation and consolidate the gains it made
in the 2006 general elections. With this in mind, SNSD is
targeting major SDS municipalities, such as Doboj and
Bijeljina; it is not seriously contesting SDS's rural
strongholds in the Eastern RS. Most observers expect SNSD to
increase the number of municipalities it controls because the

SARAJEVO 00001423 002 OF 003


SDS and others have been unable to mount a serious challenge
to SNSD's dominance of the RS.

Bosniaks: An SDA-SDP Face Off
--------------


5. (C) Among the Bosniak parties, the Party for Democratic
Action (SDA) currently holds 33 mayoralties (32 in the
Federation; 1 in the RS, Srebrenica),the Party for BiH
(SBiH) of Bosniak member of the Tri-Presidency Haris
Silajdzic holds two (both in the Federation),and the
self-described multi-ethnic -- but predominantly Bosniak --
Social Democratic Party (SDP) holds 11 (all in the
Federation). The popularity of Silajdzic and his party has
steadily declined over the last 18 months, and Silajdzic has
devoted little time and energy to the municipal elections.
He reportedly told SBiH officials who were urging him to play
a more active role in SBiH's campaign that, as Chairman of
the Presidency, he had "more important issues" to address.
SBiH officials outside Sarajevo have blamed Silajdzic's
approach for their campaign's lack of visibility among
voters.


6. (C) If SBiH remains plagued by declining poll numbers and
a disinterested party president, the competition for Bosniak
votes within the Federation will be between SDA and SDP.
(Note: SDA and SBiH are running as a coalition in the RS.
End Note) SDA's campaign has been hampered by rifts within
the party, the origins of which date back to Tihic's
extremely poor showing in the 2006 election for the Bosniak
member of the Tri-Presidency. Two splinter parties have
emerged from SDA over the last year, and some predict this
could hurt SDA at the polls and further weaken Tihic. Some
within SDA's more hard-line, anti-Tihic wing, nominally led
by Bakir Izetbegovic, are challenging Tihic by pushing for a
more nationalistic campaign that would demonstrate SDA's
ability to stand up to growing Serb nationalism.


7. (C) SDP Secretary General Nermin Niksic told us that SDP
hopes to capitalize on SDA's internal division and that the
party is conducting an aggressive "get-out-the-vote"
campaign. SDP is strongest in the urban municipalities of
Tuzla and Sarajevo Cantons, and it is in Sarajevo that the
party hopes to make its biggest gains at SDA's expense. SDP
has had some success by tapping into voter anger over a
proposal to raise parliamentary salaries and a series of
dramatic criminal incidents in Sarajevo Canton (Refs D and
E).

Croats: HDZs Escalate Nationalist Rhetoric
--------------


8. (C) Among the Croat political parties, the Croat
Democratic Union-BiH (HDZ-BiH) holds 20 mayoralties (all in
the Federation). Its chief rival, the splinter party
HDZ-1990, holds two. (Note: HDZ-1990 split from HDZ in 2006
and therefore did not compete in the 2004 municipal
elections. End Note) Though there was some discussion
between HDZ-BiH and HDZ-1990 about reunification prior to the
start of the election campaign, the two parties will run
separately in Croat-majority regions. (Note: The HDZs will
run together, along with another small Croat party, in the
RS. End Note) The HDZs, running on largely similar
platforms, have mainly pitched themselves as the stronger
defenders of Croat interests. HDZ-1990's appeal to Croat
nationalism--particularly the call for a third entity--has
been the most blatant. The split among Croats could allow
the Bosniaks to win control of sme mixed Bosniak-Croat
municipalities, such as Vitez.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) We anticipate the nationalist rhetoric will intensify
as the campaign unfolds. Unrelated events, such as the
verdict in the ICTY trial of Bosniak wartime commander Rasim
Delic -- scheduled for September 15 -- could provide even
more fodder for Bosniak and Serb nationalists. At this
point, though, few observers expect the elections to
radically transform the fortunes of the major political
parties. That said, the intensified rhetoric will
undoubtedly contribute to further polarization of the Bosnian
political scene.

SARAJEVO 00001423 003 OF 003


ENGLISH