Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08SANTODOMINGO611
2008-04-25 18:50:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Santo Domingo
Cable title:
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDUP, APRIL 25, 2008
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UNCLAS SANTO DOMINGO 000611
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA/CAR AND INR
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PHUM ECON DR
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDUP, APRIL 25, 2008
REF: A. SANTO DOMINGO 0418
B. SANTO DOMINGO 0180
C. 06 SANTO DOMINGO 3521
(U) In this edition of the Roundup:
UNCLAS SANTO DOMINGO 000611
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA/CAR AND INR
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PHUM ECON DR
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDUP, APRIL 25, 2008
REF: A. SANTO DOMINGO 0418
B. SANTO DOMINGO 0180
C. 06 SANTO DOMINGO 3521
(U) In this edition of the Roundup:
1. Participacion Ciudadana's Second Observation Report
2. Latest Poll Results
3. Fernandez Discusses Removing Term Limits
4. Small Party Candidate Alleges Donations by Narcotics
Traffickers
1. (SBU) Participacion Ciudadana's Second Observation Report
Participacion Ciudadana has published its "Second Electoral
Observation Report," which is supported by a USAID grant. In
the publication, the respected NGO:
-- Discusses at-length the continuing controversy regarding
the use of government spending to favor incumbent
presidential candidate Leonel Fernandez, e.g. the ruling by
the Central Elections Board (JCE) against the special
government payroll ("Nomina CB") for party members who do not
work (Ref A);
-- States that the administration of the election is going
well: "At present, there are no apparent important obstacles
to a successful election in terms of organizational issues."
-- Criticizes the lack of policy content: "The campaign is
not complying with one of its fundamental functions, i.e. to
serve as a space for proposing and debating policy proposals;"
-- States that campaign-related violence has been minimal; and
-- Notes the high level of spending on campaign
advertisements in this developing country.
2. (SBU) Latest Poll Results
An analysis in the newspaper "Clave" showed that the results
of polls taken by major firms in the last weeks of the 1996,
2000, and 2004 elections were very similar to the final
election results. This year, the results of four recent
opinion polls by major firms show a lead of 15 to 24 percent
(pct.) for the PLD's Leonel Fernandez over his main rival,
the PRD's Miguel Vargas Maldonado:
-- Gallup-Hoy:
Fernandez 52 pct., Vargas 37 pct.
-- Penn and Schoen:
Fernandez 56 pct., 32 Vargas pct.
-- Clave-NOXA-CIES:
Fernandez 54 pct., Vargas 30 pct.
-- Greenberg-Diario Libre:
Fernandez 53 pct., Vargas 37 pct.
In contrast, the firm CID-Latinoamerica, which has a well
established reputation with the State Department, continues
to show a much tighter race: Fernandez 40.6 pct., Vargas
39.0 pct. While it is unclear what is causing this
divergence in poll data, the problem may be explained by
differing numbers on undecided voters. Among likely voters,
CID's data is closer to the other major polls: Fernandez 50
pct., Vargas 45 pct. (Ref B). (Note: Running third at 4-8
pct. is the PRSC's Amable Aristy Castro who, in the event of
a second round of voting, will be courted by both the PLD and
PRD for his endorsement.)
3. (SBU) Fernandez Discusses Removing Term Limits
President Fernandez was recently asked by the press whether
he would propose a constitutional amendment to permit him to
run for a third consecutive term (fourth in total) in 2012.
Fernandez's reply certainly did not rule out such a move: "I
don't know if I will even still be alive. However, there are
times when circumstances cause events that were not foreseen.
In Colombia, there are those who are suggesting the
possibility of changing the constitution so that Uribe
continues in power until the war with the guerillas is
resolved. (President Clinton was young when he left office.)
That was a human resource that the United States lost. If
Bill Clinton had run again, he certainly would have won."
Comment: The talk around town is that Fernandez will indeed
seek to remove term limits, as part of the broader
constitutional reform effort that he initiated in late-2006
(Ref C). The practice of presidential re-election is
controversial here, even for the one consecutive term
permitted since 2002, given concerns regarding the use of
government spending to favor the incumbent candidate.
4. (U) Small Party Candidate Alleges Donations by Narcotics
Traffickers
Trajano Santana, the presidential candidate for the small
Revolutionary Independent Party, recently alleged that
narcotics traffickers "invest" in candidates in return for
assistance in avoiding prosecution. Santana said, "Here
there is a significant number of criminals participating in
the political process in order to sustain a model of
impunity." Reacting to reports of the candidate's
statements, the Presidents of the JCE and drug czar's office
requested that Santana present them with proof of his
allegation. The head of the JCE also noted that Santana's
charge shows the importance of passing a new political party
law, since the current statute does not require that campaign
contributions be reported.
(U) This report and additional information can be found on
Embassy Santo Domingo's SIPRNET site,
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/
FANNIN
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA/CAR AND INR
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PHUM ECON DR
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDUP, APRIL 25, 2008
REF: A. SANTO DOMINGO 0418
B. SANTO DOMINGO 0180
C. 06 SANTO DOMINGO 3521
(U) In this edition of the Roundup:
1. Participacion Ciudadana's Second Observation Report
2. Latest Poll Results
3. Fernandez Discusses Removing Term Limits
4. Small Party Candidate Alleges Donations by Narcotics
Traffickers
1. (SBU) Participacion Ciudadana's Second Observation Report
Participacion Ciudadana has published its "Second Electoral
Observation Report," which is supported by a USAID grant. In
the publication, the respected NGO:
-- Discusses at-length the continuing controversy regarding
the use of government spending to favor incumbent
presidential candidate Leonel Fernandez, e.g. the ruling by
the Central Elections Board (JCE) against the special
government payroll ("Nomina CB") for party members who do not
work (Ref A);
-- States that the administration of the election is going
well: "At present, there are no apparent important obstacles
to a successful election in terms of organizational issues."
-- Criticizes the lack of policy content: "The campaign is
not complying with one of its fundamental functions, i.e. to
serve as a space for proposing and debating policy proposals;"
-- States that campaign-related violence has been minimal; and
-- Notes the high level of spending on campaign
advertisements in this developing country.
2. (SBU) Latest Poll Results
An analysis in the newspaper "Clave" showed that the results
of polls taken by major firms in the last weeks of the 1996,
2000, and 2004 elections were very similar to the final
election results. This year, the results of four recent
opinion polls by major firms show a lead of 15 to 24 percent
(pct.) for the PLD's Leonel Fernandez over his main rival,
the PRD's Miguel Vargas Maldonado:
-- Gallup-Hoy:
Fernandez 52 pct., Vargas 37 pct.
-- Penn and Schoen:
Fernandez 56 pct., 32 Vargas pct.
-- Clave-NOXA-CIES:
Fernandez 54 pct., Vargas 30 pct.
-- Greenberg-Diario Libre:
Fernandez 53 pct., Vargas 37 pct.
In contrast, the firm CID-Latinoamerica, which has a well
established reputation with the State Department, continues
to show a much tighter race: Fernandez 40.6 pct., Vargas
39.0 pct. While it is unclear what is causing this
divergence in poll data, the problem may be explained by
differing numbers on undecided voters. Among likely voters,
CID's data is closer to the other major polls: Fernandez 50
pct., Vargas 45 pct. (Ref B). (Note: Running third at 4-8
pct. is the PRSC's Amable Aristy Castro who, in the event of
a second round of voting, will be courted by both the PLD and
PRD for his endorsement.)
3. (SBU) Fernandez Discusses Removing Term Limits
President Fernandez was recently asked by the press whether
he would propose a constitutional amendment to permit him to
run for a third consecutive term (fourth in total) in 2012.
Fernandez's reply certainly did not rule out such a move: "I
don't know if I will even still be alive. However, there are
times when circumstances cause events that were not foreseen.
In Colombia, there are those who are suggesting the
possibility of changing the constitution so that Uribe
continues in power until the war with the guerillas is
resolved. (President Clinton was young when he left office.)
That was a human resource that the United States lost. If
Bill Clinton had run again, he certainly would have won."
Comment: The talk around town is that Fernandez will indeed
seek to remove term limits, as part of the broader
constitutional reform effort that he initiated in late-2006
(Ref C). The practice of presidential re-election is
controversial here, even for the one consecutive term
permitted since 2002, given concerns regarding the use of
government spending to favor the incumbent candidate.
4. (U) Small Party Candidate Alleges Donations by Narcotics
Traffickers
Trajano Santana, the presidential candidate for the small
Revolutionary Independent Party, recently alleged that
narcotics traffickers "invest" in candidates in return for
assistance in avoiding prosecution. Santana said, "Here
there is a significant number of criminals participating in
the political process in order to sustain a model of
impunity." Reacting to reports of the candidate's
statements, the Presidents of the JCE and drug czar's office
requested that Santana present them with proof of his
allegation. The head of the JCE also noted that Santana's
charge shows the importance of passing a new political party
law, since the current statute does not require that campaign
contributions be reported.
(U) This report and additional information can be found on
Embassy Santo Domingo's SIPRNET site,
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/
FANNIN