Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08SANTODOMINGO1513
2008-09-26 19:01:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Santo Domingo
Cable title:  

THE DR'S REFORMISTA PARTY - A PHOENIX OR DEAD

Tags:  PGOV PREL KJUS DR 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHDG #1513/01 2701901
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O 261901Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY SANTO DOMINGO
TO RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS IMMEDIATE
INFO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SANTO DOMINGO 001513 

SIPDIS

STATE WHA/CAR FOR VDEPIRRO, JTILGHMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KJUS DR
SUBJECT: THE DR'S REFORMISTA PARTY - A PHOENIX OR DEAD
DUCK? (PART I)

SANTO DOMI 00001513 001.2 OF 003


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SANTO DOMINGO 001513

SIPDIS

STATE WHA/CAR FOR VDEPIRRO, JTILGHMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KJUS DR
SUBJECT: THE DR'S REFORMISTA PARTY - A PHOENIX OR DEAD
DUCK? (PART I)

SANTO DOMI 00001513 001.2 OF 003



1. (SBU) Summary: The Social Christian Reform Party (PRSC),
once the powerful political instrument of President Balaguer,
is struggling to rise again after it received less than five
percent of the vote during the May 2008 elections. The party
is split
in various ways and several nominal members of the PRSC
actually serve in the PLD party-led Fernandez administration
(e.g. Foreign Minister Morales Troncoso). The party is in the
process of selecting both a new party president and a new
secretary general, but there seems little consensus on just
what the party stands for. Unless the party can overcome
internal differences, develop sound policies and - in
municipalities where it is in power - demonstrate that it can
produce results, the DR will lack the sort of coherent
opposition party it needs to keep from slipping into a
semi-democracy under President Fernandez. With the second
largest party, the PRD, having lost the last three elections
by wide margins, the DR could benefit from an effective third
party option. However, only time will tell if the PRSC -
whose symbol is a rooster - ends up a phoenix or dead duck.
End Summary.


Tough Times for the PRSC
--------------


2. (U) Ordinary Dominicans often express their disgust with
politicians and political parties in the country. Recently,
while riding through Santo Domingo in a taxi, Poloff noted a
small building with the colors and logo of a hitherto
unnoticed minor party. The taxi driver, upon being asked
what kind of party it was, laughed contemptuously and said,
"Who knows? They just exist to get money from the electoral
system." This raised questions about how soon the once
powerful PRSC might join the ranks of the DR's many small and
obscure parties. If the PRSC does, what will the future of
Dominican democracy be?


3. (U) Once, the PRSC was the party of "the last caudillo,"
President Joaquin Balaguer, who ruled from 1966-1978 and
1986-1996. Since Balaguer's death in 2002, the PRSC's
fortunes have steadily ebbed, even though the party
accumulated vast resources (real estate, cars, cash) while in

power. In the last presidential elections (May 2008),the
PRSC's candidate, Amable Aristy Castro, received less than
five percent of the vote. In part, this was because many
PRSC members supported the PLD's Leonel Fernandez, joining a
movement called "Fernandez on the First Round." The confused
state of the party continues.


5. (U) Moreover, in recent years, President Fernandez managed
to get some important PRSC figures to join his team. These
include the Foreign Minister, Morales Troncoso, Angel
Lockwood, Minister without Portfolio (and soon to be
Ambassador to Colombia),and Aristides Fernandez Zucco, who
heads the National Energy Commission. Recently, a supposedly
secret meeting at the Presidential Palace between President
Fernandez and certain PRSC congressmen caused the PRSC
leadership to cry foul. PRSC loyalists claim the meeting,
which was uncovered by the media, was yet another naked
attempt by the President to seduce PRSC members into serving
his administration, thereby splitting the party. Certainly,
since the last elections there have been defections of PRSC
representatives in Congress, reducing their number from 22 to
18, plus two Senators.


Inside the PRSC: Clueless and Leaderless, but Feisty
-------------- --------------


6. (SBU) In Poloff's recent meetings with mid-ranking and
young members of the PRSC, two trends emerged: First, there
as a strong desire for the PRSC to revitalize itself.
Second, these party activists had no concrete ideas about
what the PRSC should be doing or saying to regain public
support. Indeed, Poloff was struck by what seemed to be
their inability to explain just why anyone should vote for
the PRSC. Rather than setting out the party's track-record
of achievements, or its proposals to address the major issues
facing the country, they mostly wished to complain about
being out of power and about the use of state assets by
Fernandez during his recent election campaign.


7. (SBU) Rather more revealing was Poloff's meeting in early
September with the man currently stepping down as President
of the PRSC, Federico "Quique" Antun Batlle. Antun is a
veteran of the PRSC, having worked for the party and served
in the Congress for many of the last thirty years. He said
he was leaving the PRSC presidency and politics because he is
"tired of pushing against a wall."

SANTO DOMI 00001513 002.2 OF 003




8. (C) Antun bluntly said that President Fernandez is trying
to destroy the PRSC and that corruption is worse than before.
He added that members of the party who have joined the
Fernandez administration have done so "for their own, not
national, interests." Antun sees the importance of an
effective opposition party in the maintenance of democracy,
but warned that Fernandez "is trying to become a permanent
President." Saying history will judge Fernandez, Antun
believes that over the long-run Fernandez's efforts to
accumulate power will come to naught, or worse.


9. (C) Warming to the topic of corruption and social
disintegration, Antun noted that under Balaguer someone might
seek to have a contract steered to an up-and-coming
businessperson and that there might be a tacit understanding
that that person would either provide a small kick-back or at
least otherwise support the PRSC in return. Now, Antun
claimed, people "no longer need to be sophisticated" and
baldly demand 10 percent or more. He added bitterly that his
children are staying in the United States because they see no
future here and are repulsed by the way narco-traffickers
warp society. For instance, he said "in the discos, girls
will only leave with the guys whose drug money allows them to
have fancy cars."


10. (C) (Note: Since meeting with Poloff, Antun sent
President Fernandez a letter setting forth his critiques. In
stinging language, he accuses the President of violating
various laws, permitting corruption and endangering democracy
in the DR. Antun tells Fernandez, "You have no right to
trample on our people as you are doing. The government's
resources should not be looted by vulgar clientelism, (thus)
emulating the most enraging and unstable despotic practices
of Latin America." End note.)


11. (SBU) Poloff also met with Amable Aristy Castro, the PRSC
presidential candidate in 2008, on the day he announced he
would seek the post of president of the PRSC. Artisty was
much more circumspect than Antun. His essential message was
that the PRSC "can and will strengthen itself." Referring to
the numerous splits in the PRSC, he praised Hillary Clinton
for having delivered a solid concession speech, despite the
hard-fought primary season, saying, "That's real democracy."
Although the subject of many rumors about corruption himself,
Aristy - his eyes unblinking - said corruption must be
addressed.


12. (SBU) Aristy indicated that the PRSC could play watchdog
role, despite Fernandez's currently overwhelming political
position. Aristy is also aware of the worrisome skepticism
among ordinary Dominicans about the political class - of
which he remains a long-standing and powerful member. He did
not, however, spell out how he would deal with corruption or
other pressing issues in the country.


13. (U) Before the media, Aristy had much the same message -
that the party should reunify, and that leaders of the party
were looking to him to make it happen. He added that he
would not seek the fusion of the PRSC with any other party.
Aristy also claimed that he does not intend to run again for
DR president when national elections are held in 2012.
Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Morales Troncoso told reporters
that Aristy was the man who could
guarantee the party's survival and blamed its decline on
Antun.


PRSC: What next?
--------------


14. (U) The PRSC will select its new president, and secretary
general, on October 26. In addition to Amble Aristy, Victor
"Ito" Bisono is seeking the party presidency. Bisono
currently represents the National District (Santo Domingo) in
the Congress. Born in 1963, he joined the party's youth wing
early and, in addition to being a representative, has worked
as a businessman, serving as President of the Council for
Promoting Foreign Investment at one point. He thus is much
younger than Aristy and so might provide the party with a
more modern image. Bisono has said that he wants the PRSC to
have "its own identity" - precisely because the PRSC is seen
as partly subsumed by the ruling PLD. He claims that the
country wants the PRSC to "relaunch" itself and to open
itself to "the new values of Dominican society" and Dominican
youth and women.


15. (C) As for Bisono's chances, Antun believes that Bisono
would make a better Secretary General of the party than
president because Bisono is seen as a good organizer, but

SANTO DOMI 00001513 003.2 OF 003


perhaps not as gregarious a party president ought to be.
Antun opined that Joaquin Ricardo might be the next PRSC
president (Ricardo was briefly Minister of Foreign Affairs in
the early 1990's but has not been very active in public
since). Others believe that Aristy, because he has the most
money, will win the contest.


Comment: PRSC - The Once and Future Party?
--------------


16. (C) Comment: At this moment in Dominican history,
Fernandez almost completely dominates the fragmented
political scene. This may be why the President, fresh from
his second consecutive inauguration, has just put forward an
extensive series of constitutional amendments (to be analyzed
septel). At the same time, one has the sense that the
political situation is delicately poised. On the one hand,
Antun's strong letter to the President shows that the
DR remains free enough that a man can speak his mind to the
country's leader. On the other, the fact that that his
letter implies Fernandez may become like the Emperor Nero -
"for whose bad acts, posterity (now) regards as a by-word for
wickedness" - indicates the level of concern some have in the
country.


17. (C) Comment (cont'd.): References to Nero may seem
over-blown, but the DR could benefit from an effective
opposition party. The Foreign Minister has signaled as much
himself, even though he is a prime example of cooptation by
Fernandez of PRSC members. The danger is that the Fernandez
administration, lacking the stimulus of vigorous yet mature
opposition, will drift into ineffectual, semi-authoritarian,
and/or corrupt torpor. This would not be in U.S. interests.
Post will continue to address the challenge through its
significant democracy and governance programs.


18. (SBU) Comment (cont'd.): Certainly, there is plenty the
PRSC could start to do: Spell out how, once in power, it
would address the threat from narco-trafficking, the
country's dependency on imported oil, and improve the
national education system. It could also work to ensure
that, in municipalities it does control, it keeps the streets
free of trash and otherwise ensures the provision
of basic services. Then, if/as Fernandez's infrastructure
projects run behind schedule and over-budget, the PRSC would
be well-positioned to reap political benefits. So far, the
contestants for PRSC leadership roles have yet set out such a
vision. Moreover, if the next PRSC president is Aristy - the
man who led the party to electoral disaster earlier this year
- this would signal that the PRSC is not yet ready to play
the sort of role the DR needs over the next four years. End
Comment.
FANNIN