Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08SANAA67
2008-01-13 15:39:00
SECRET
Embassy Sanaa
Cable title:  

SAADA UPDATE: IT'S NOT QUIET ON YEMEN'S

Tags:  PINS PGOV YM 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHYN #0067/01 0131539
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
R 131539Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY SANAA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8753
S E C R E T SANAA 000067 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2018
TAGS: PINS PGOV YM
SUBJECT: SAADA UPDATE: IT'S NOT QUIET ON YEMEN'S
NORTHWESTERN FRONTIER

REF: A. 07 SANAA 2081

B. 07 SANAA 2124

C. 1308542Z JAN 08

D. 0515052Z NOV 07

E. 1920592Z DEC 07

Classified By: A/DCM Mike Sarhan for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
-------
S E C R E T SANAA 000067

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2018
TAGS: PINS PGOV YM
SUBJECT: SAADA UPDATE: IT'S NOT QUIET ON YEMEN'S
NORTHWESTERN FRONTIER

REF: A. 07 SANAA 2081

B. 07 SANAA 2124

C. 1308542Z JAN 08

D. 0515052Z NOV 07

E. 1920592Z DEC 07

Classified By: A/DCM Mike Sarhan for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (U) On January 10 there was renewed intense fighting in
Saada in northwestern Yemen between al-Houthi and ROYG forces
leading to a spike in casualties. A Qatari-mediated
cease-fire is widely accepted to have failed despite efforts
at the highest levels to maintain it. A fifth war in Saada
is likely to reignite during the summer of 2008, and may have
already begun. Paragraphs six through nine contain a summary
of recent events in the region reported in the press. END
SUMMARY

RENEWED FIGHTING
--------------

2. (U) On January 11 Associated Press and other news sources
reported that on January 10 clashes in Saada especially
around the Haidan near the Saudi border killed 30 people
including up to eight government soldiers. This represents a
spike in casualties in ongoing clashes since post's last
reports on Saada in refs A and B. Media reports said that
the majority of casualties resulted from shelling by
government forces. A report by the Italy based Arab Monitor
claimed that the January 10 incident started when government
soldiers detained a woman in a Haidan village and al-Houthis
and tribesmen attempt to free her. (COMMENT: News reports
inaccurately characterize this recent clash as a breaking of
the cease-fire between al-Houthis, a group of loyal to Zaydi
(Shite) cleric Abdulmalik al-Houthi, and the ROYG. In
reality there has been fighting for several months. END
COMMENT.)


3. (S) In ref C post reported that the Chief of staff of the
Yemeni Military, Major General Ahmed Ali al-Ashwal called the
figures reported in the media inaccurate and said only four
Yemeni soldiers have been killed in the last two weeks in
ambushes. Al-Ashwal admits that the al-Houthis receive more
positive reporting than the ROYG in the media.


4. (C) PolOff spoke to Abdul Majid Fadh, a Saada native, who
runs the Civic Democratic Foundation NGO, who said reported
casualties were spread over a wide area not just in Haidan
and reports exaggerate the intensity of violence in that

area, however, he pointed out that violence has been
continuing for some time. He said that Haidan is an area in
contest between the government security forces and
al-Houthis. He said the government is losing support with
average Saadais due to its violent tactics and arbitrary
actions. He further commented that Sheikh Faris Mohammed
Manna, who is reported to be in Saada at the behest of
President Saleh to mediate a peace, did not have credibility
to negotiate there because of his open support of the ROYG
since 2004.


5. (C) PolOff also corresponded with Sana'a University
Political Science Professor Abdullah al-Faqih, who
unofficially drafted the cease-fire agreement signed by the
ROYG and al-Houthis in June. Al-Faqih predicted that, though
intermittent fighting will continue, neither side will gain
from renewed war. Both sides lose if war breaks out, both in
promised Qatari development aid and in &the collapse of the
regime and most likely of the state itself.8

RECENT EVENTS IN SAADA CONFLICT
--------------

6. (U) Since early November there have been weekly clashes in
Saada escalating to pronouncements of a possible renewed
outbreak of war by al-Houthi leadership. On November 8 the
English language newspaper Yemen Times reported that the
government mediation committee spokesperson Aidarous
al-Naqeeb said negotiations had broken down after the Qatari
delegation left in August, and that renewed fighting was
highly likely.


7. (C) The Qatari Ambassador to Yemen in December said to a
UN diplomat that the mediation was at an end, despite efforts
by the Prime Minister Ali Mohammed Mujawar and Presidential
adviser Abdul Karim al-Eryani to revive Qatari interest (ref
B). Qatari DCM told PolOff that the mediation was dead.


8. (U) On December 5 and December 17 the Yemen Times and BBC
reported that tribes were increasingly involved in clashes.
In one case tribes ambushed Government forces in revenge for
the killing of their Sheikh Salem Derham. On December 16
Yemen Times reported the al-Houthi field commander Abdulmalik
al-Houthi sent a letter to the main opposition coalition

Joint Meeting Parties, leadership warning them that
government excesses, mass detentions, demolition of
residential areas including one mosque (the Muslim place of
worship),and large scale deployments in Saada threatened to
start of the fifth war in Saada. (Note: Abdulmalik
al-Houthis is a Zaydi Shite cleric who was left in charge of
the al-Houthi movement when government forces killed his son
Hussein Abdulmalik al-Houthi in 2004. End Note.) On December
25 the government news source Yemen News Agency reported that
Yemeni Minister of Interior Dr. Rashad Mohammed al-Alimi
congratulated security personnel for maintaining order,
security and unity in Saada. Saada Governor Matahar al-Masri
said the situation in Saada was stable and that billions of
Yemeni riyals were allocated to development. On January 3
the Yemen Times reported that Sheikh Faris Mohammed Manna was
in Saada at the head of a fact finding committee for
President Saleh.


9. (U) On December 25 the Yemen Times reported that
Northwestern Military Commander General Ali Muhsen al-Ahmar's
Manager Askar Zuail gave a sermon in which he called
al-Houthis 'disbelievers' and asked the congregation to "kill
all the Shiite Houthi supporters for the sake of Allah and
the Prophet Mohammed."

COMMENT:
--------------

10. (S) All is not well in Saada. It is likely current
skirmishes may lead to Abdulmalik's prediction of a fifth war
(or continuation of the fourth) in the summer 2008 in Saada.
Fighting has not subsided, rather it has been overshadowed by
events in the South, some tribal uneasiness and terror
related incidents including the bombing of an oil pipeline in
November (ref D) and the case of Jamal al-Badawi. Reports
suggest the al-Houthis still control large areas of Saada, a
particularly mountainous region of Yemen, and have some
backing from elements in Saudi Arabia (ref E). The breakdown
of mediation, which al-Naqeeb blames in part on more pressing
matters of state, and the failure of either side to fulfill
the Qatari brokered cease-fire (though al-Houthi spokesperson
Sheikh Saleh Habra and Fadh identified positions al-Houthis
gave up to the ROYG forces) led to increased rhetoric and
live fire.


11. (C) News that Faris Manna was appointed to a role in
Saada by President Saleh was not well received. He is a well
known and documented arms dealer, who President Saleh himself
admits is supplying both the ROYG and the al-Houthis. Faris
Manna has little credibility as a mediator in Saada.


12. (C) Contrary to Professor al-Faqih's diagnosis, neither
side will likely see war as a precursor to the collapse of
the state. Four prior wars fought in Saada since 2004 did
not lead to its collapse. Al-Houthis probably do not expect
to see much of the aid money offered by the Qataris due to
rampant corruption and may want to cement their apparent
success in the last war.
SECHE