SAADA, RECOVERING FROM EARLIER CONFLICTS, AWAITS

S E C R E T SANAA 002026


FOR NEA/ARP AMACDONALD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2018
TAGS: MCAP MOPS PGOV PHUM PREF YM
SUBJECT: SAADA, RECOVERING FROM EARLIER CONFLICTS, AWAITS
NEXT ROUND

Classified By: Ambassador Stephen Seche for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (S) SUMMARY. Ongoing tribal violence, a deteriorating
humanitarian situation andincreasing Houthi influence across
Saada point to a likely renewal of hostilities in the near
future, despite the ROYG,s professed desire to avoid more
fighting. Reconstruction and provision of basic services are
the battered government's only hope of averting a sixth round
of conflict. END SUMMARY.

HUMANITARIAN CONCERNS
--------------


2. (S) Several factors, including ROYG security concerns,
Houthi-controlled checkpoints and NGOs, self-imposed
restrictions, combine to severely restrict movement in Saada.
The government continues to prevent local and foreign
journalists from covering Saada. NGOs report varying degrees
of access, and none that PolOff spoke to had traveled north
of Saada City since April. The UNHCR was unable to reach
Saada City in November because the ROYG had closed the main
road. Conversely, Islamic Relief Country Director Khalid
al-Mulad told PolOff on December 14 that his organization has
never had a problem with access, although he noted that his
close personal relationships with ROYG officials might be a
factor.


3. (S) UNHCR Country Representative Claire Bourgeois told
PolOff on December 3, &I,m very worried about Saada. I am
definitely more pessimistic than optimistic.8 She said that
thousands of IDPs remain in Saada City, camping in tents and
share-cropping on small plots of land. Refugee children show
signs of chronic malnourishment and do not attend school,
according to Bourgeois. The IDPs told the UNHCR they did not
want to return to their villages because their homes were
destroyed and they feared retribution from the Houthis, who
accuse families who fled the fighting of being
pro-government. Bourgeois said that the Houthis require all
returnees to sign a document promising not to align
themselves with the government. None of the refugees with
whom the UNHCR spoke in early October planned to return to
their villages, saying it was &too early.8 (Note: Khalid
Al-Mulad of Islamic Relief told PolOff on December 14 that
some &neutral8 and Houthi-affiliated persons had returned
home since the end of fighting in July. End Note.)

HOUTHIS: STRONGER THAN EVER
--------------


4. (S) &You wouldn,t believe how much land the Houthis
have in their hands right now,8 Majid Al-Fahed, executive
director of a local democracy NGO and a native of Saada who
visits the governorate every month, told PolOff on December

3. He said that the Houthis control access and security
across almost the entire governorate. Islamic Relief,s
al-Mulad confirmed that the Houthis dominate the southwestern
region of Saada around Haydan and the territory north of
Saada City. The group has checkpoints on roads throughout the
governorate. As an example of the Houthis, relative strength
over the ROYG in Saada, EmbOff learned that in mid-December
the ROYG refused to provide the UN with an armed escort north
of Amran. Presumably fearful of potential Houthi attacks, the
government told the UN that its convoy could travel more
safely without the military escort.


5. (S) The Houthis have taken advantage of the poor economic
situation to garner increased support among the population in
Saada. Departing ICRC Head of Delegation Marcus Dolder told
the DCM on December 16, &The Houthis offer a better
alternative. They have made efforts to avoid corruption and
provide health and education services.8 Ali Al-Khalwani, an
English teacher in the Bani Moath district 20 kilometers
north of Saada City, told Pol/E FSN on December 17 that he
has noticed an increase in Houthi-affiliated tribes and added
that the majority of students and teachers in his school
publicly align themselves with the Houthis &because they
want to be on the stronger side.8


6. (S) Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi and his followers
have ramped up their anti-American, anti-Israeli rhetoric in
recent months, including displaying banners and shouting
slogans during celebrations for Eid al-Ghadeer (a Shiite
holiday previously banned by the ROYG) in Saada City in
mid-December. The movement has also focused on ROYG failings
to rebuild Saada. In his inflammatory Eid al-Adha
proclamation in early December, Abdulmalik al-Houthi stated,
&This tyrant regime has not provided but destruction,
devastation, rise in prices... looting of economic resources,
killings, destroying ethics, eliminating principles,
misleading, lying, and corruption in everything. For whose
benefit is (the army) fighting and destroying?8


WAR OR PEACE?
--------------


7. (S) Based on meetings with ROYG officials and other
sources, it is unlikely that the government will initiate the
sixth round of fighting in Saada. Presidential advisor Dr.
Abdul Karim al-Eryani, who represented the ROYG throughout
the Qatari mediation in Saada, told the Ambassador on
December 15 that the likelihood of a resumption of the
conflict in the short term is low. Although an unconfirmed
number of ROYG troops remain in the governorate, forces have
withdrawn from much of the territory held at the time of the
July ceasefire and ammunition is still in very short supply,
according to Eryani. President Saleh,s recent gestures, such
as releasing captured fighters as part of the traditional Eid
al-Adha prisoner release and naming Ministry of Defense (MOD)
official Abdul Aziz al-Dhahab, a Sanhani with previous
experience in Saada, as the new ROYG mediator, indicate
Saleh's desire to avoid violent confrontation, Eryani said.


8. (S) Tribal conflict between Houthi- and
government-affiliated tribes persists in Saada, with reports
of sporadic, heavy fighting in early December. Several NGO
sources worried that ongoing inter-tribal battles could
ignite a larger conflict and draw in the government. In a
December 13 meeting with the Ambassador, Minister of Interior
Rashad al-Masri tried to downplay the fighting, calling the
situation in Saada &very stable.8 He added, &The
government is 100 percent no war, from today. If we had
any intentions to begin (fighting) again, we would have done
so before.8


9. (S) Multiple sources told PolOff that if the conflict
starts up again, it will have less to do with Houthi ideology
than with the humanitarian situation, which the populace
blames on the ROYG. Al-Mulad of Islamic Relief told PolOff on
December 14, &All of the government,s promises to rebuild
have fallen short, and (no resources are) penetrating past
Saada City.8 With the collapse of the Qatari-brokered
agreement, the significant investment incentives for Saada
offered by the Government of Qatar (GOQ) never materialized.
According to Al-Fahed, the NGO leader from Saada, and ICRC,s
Dolder, the only way for the ROYG to avoid future fighting is
to demonstrate a genuine humanitarian concern by providing
essential services and removing checkpoints on the main road
into Saada that constrain the movement of goods and people.

COMMENT
--------------


10. (S) Saada remains of significant concern due to the
current humanitarian situation and the prospect of
hostilities resuming in the next six months. Until the ROYG
begins to resolve the humanitarian crisis by devoting
resources for the most basic services, the Houthis will
continue to gain support on economic rather than ideological
grounds. Ongoing conflicts between tribes functioning as
surrogates for the Houthis and the ROYG only serve to
exacerbate the already fragile situation. END COMMENT.


SECHE