OPPOSITION LEADER: PARTICIPATION IN APRIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 001935


FOR NEA/ARP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KCOR KDEM YM
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER: PARTICIPATION IN APRIL
ELECTIONS IMPOSSIBLE

REF: SANAA 1887

Classified By: Ambassador Stephen A. Seche for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
--------------


1. (C) With Yemen's April 2009 Parliamentary elections
approaching, the opposition continues to boycott all election
preparations. The concessions that President Saleh is
willing to discuss privately come nowhere near addressing
what the opposition deems to be its "minimum standards" for
participation in the elections. The opposition believes
there is now insufficient time for the ruling party to meet
its demands before the date of the elections, even if the
ruling party chooses to do so. While the opposition has held
out in previous elections only to give in at the last moment,
it appears willing to sit the elections out if its reform
demands are not met. End Summary.

Saleh Bends a Little
--------------


2. (C) Less than five months before scheduled Parliamentary
elections, the opposition Joint Meeting Parties (JMP)
continues its boycott of election preparations. The gap
between the JMP and the ruling General People's Congress
(GPC) is as wide as it has ever been. On November 25,
maverick member of the GPC's General Committee, Sheikh
Mohamed Abulahoum told POL/E Chief that he had met with
President Saleh for two hours and impressed upon him the
urgency of reaching a compromise with the JMP if he hopes the
Parliamentary elections to be successful and have opposition
participation.


3. (C) He then elicited from Saleh a list of compromises the
President would be willing to make, including enacting the
amendments to the election law that had been agreed to by
both parties in August, reconfiguring the Supreme Commission
for Elections and Referenda (SCER),and allowing the JMP to
review the registration lists in a manner to which they
agree. The President specifically told Abulahoum that he was
not willing to rescind the executive order he issued in
August populating the SCER, as he was unwilling to "go back
on his word." (Note: Abulahoum is a trusted, long-time
contact of the Embassy. While he is not one of the
President's inner circle of advisors, he clearly has access
to Saleh. As one of the few people in Yemen who is willing
to speak frankly with Saleh and deliver him news he does not
want to hear, Abulahoum can sometimes gain the President's
ear and his notoriously mercurial attention when more
significant advisors can not. End Note.)

JMP Doesn't Bend At All
--------------


4. (C) On November 29, POL/E Chief met with Secretary General
Abdulawahab al-Anisi of JMP member party Islah, attempting to
ascertain to what extent JMP might be willing to compromise
on its demands for ending the boycott. (Note: The JMP has
an extensive list of demands that were enumerated in an open
letter to the President. These include the implementation of
all agreed-to amendments to the electoral law and the
annulment of the existing SCER and all actions it has
undertaken since its members were appointed in August. (The
full text of the JMP's demands can be found in para. 7.) End
Note.) Anisi described the JMP position as its minimum
requirements for participation and would not concede even one
item on which the JMP would compromise. POL/E Chief asked if
he believed it would be possible for the GPC to meet these
demands in time for the elections to be held as scheduled in
April. He responded dismissively that it would be impossible
to do so.


5. (C) POL/E Chief had heard a similar hard-line from
Secretary General Sultan al-Atwani of the JMP Chair Nasserite
Unionist party on November 15 (reftel). (Note: While the
Nasserite Party is technically the chair of the JMP, it is a
much weaker party than Islah and is expected to become even
weaker if the Parliamentary elections are held. End Note.)
POL/E Chief asked Anisi if the impossibility of having its
demands met in time meant the JMP wanted a postponement of
the elections. He responded to the contrary that not only
was the JMP not asking for a postponement, it would not
endorse one unless the GPC tied it to a specific plan to meet
the JMP demands.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) The JMP has held out in previous elections only to
give in at the last minute. It is impossible to discount the
possibility that it will do so again. Post's JMP
interlocutors, however, are firmly maintaining their
position. The JMP stance, combined with the opposition's very
public criticism of the SCER's activities, leads many to
believe that this time things may be different. The
opposition appears prepared to force Saleh either to bend or
go through with the elections without JMP participation. At
the very least, it appears that the JMP has painted itself
into a corner where it cannot participate in the April
elections without climbing down very publicly from its very
clearly staked position. End Comment.


7. (U) Begin text of JMP demands.

* Canceling all illegal individual arrangements for election
which took place since the 18 August 2008 Parliamentary
Session until today.

* Ratify the election law amendment project adding the issues
the project didn,t contain during its ratification in
Parliament, which will satisfy the requirement of the
referenced project signed agreements (Agreement on Principals
and the Recommendations of the European Mission) as follows:

** Use the proportional list system of election as a
substitute to the current election system. In addition to
other positive characteristics, this system is characterized
by fairness in representing voters including the guarantee of
women representation in Parliament.

** Determine the quorum of votes in the Supreme Commission on
the basis of two thirds in appointment, employment, lists,
evidence, and approval of the announcement of results.

** Cancellation of the third location (location of work),and
deleting all its references in the text of the law.

** Stipulate the composition of the Supreme Committee and
Election Committees from parties on a balanced basis between
the ruling party and opposition.

** Stipulate clear legal text defining effective and
practical mechanisms that guarantee neutrality (public funds,
media, military or civilian employment) on the level of the
Directorate Centers, on the central level in Governorates.
Re-correct the altered text in the modification project
concerning the neutrality of public employment according to
the Agreement on Principles.

** Stipulate the right of parties in obtaining the complete
electronic election records from the Supreme Committee, in a
form that may be processed electronically.

** Consider signature of members of the election committee on
election paper before turning it over the voter a condition
for the validity and security of the vote, which also serves
as a guarantee against leaking election papers to forcing
voters to vote for a given nominee or party.

** Sole dependence upon the National Identity (individual or
family) or passport when identifying a voter on voter,s
schedule.

**Stipulate on treating the conditions of Supreme Committee
employees who were employed and appointed in violation to the
terms of civil employment and election laws, and transferring
them with their legal rights to the Ministry of Civil Service.

* Enabling the Committee after its restructure so it may
perform all its duties in arranging its affairs, and prepare
for the next election in light of the amended and agreed upon
law.

* Removing all elements of tension and political congestion,
and providing the necessary atmosphere suitable for elections
the forefront of which are:

* Refrain from pursuing political activists, release those
detained illegally, and compensate those who were subjected
to imprisonment or physical and psychological abuse.

* Annulment of all laws, decisions, guidance, and orders
which do not conform to the Constitution and Law pertaining
to the suppression of peaceful political, or people
activities, which limit general rights and liberties.

* Cessation of abusive pressures and practices, and policy of
political corruption and corrupting aimed at parties, unions,
and civil society organizations, or interfering in their
affairs, expanding or breaking them, releasing their
properties, headquarters, locations, funds, documents
confiscated contrary to the Constitution and prevailing law
since the 1994 war until today.


End Text of JMP Demands.

SECHE