TOPICS FOR ABDULLAH/MUBARAK MEETING: EGYPTIAN DCM

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 RIYADH 001245

SIPDIS

TRIPOLI PLEASE PASS TO NEA A/S CWELCH, DEPARTMENT FOR
NEA/ARP, WHITE HOUSE FOR OVP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2018
TAGS: EG EU IR IS IZ MU PGOV PREL SA UNC UNGA
SUBJECT: TOPICS FOR ABDULLAH/MUBARAK MEETING: EGYPTIAN DCM
ON COUNTERING IRAN

REF: RIYADH 1137

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Classified By: CHARGE' D'AFFAIRES MICHAEL GFOELLER
FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (S) SUMMARY: On August 13, at Egyptian request, Pol
Counselor met with Riyadh Egyptian DCM Hussam Essa. Essa
expressed grave concerns over continued Iranian nuclear
ambitions, noting that this topic would be an agenda item in
the upcoming meeting between Saudi King Abdullah and
President Mubarak, currently scheduled for August 15 in
Cairo. Essa relayed the message that Egypt asks to have side
discussions on Iran during the 6 2 1 meetings, as well
being kept informed and consulted of any P5 1 discussions
vis-a-vis Iran. Essa advised that a combination of strict
economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and stability in
Iraq would sufficiently force Iran to change its direction.
He commented on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, noting that it
is "no longer a conflict between Israelis and Palestinians,
but between Palestinians and Palestinians." Essa also spoke
to the economic fragility of the Palestinian Authority in
relation to outstanding financial commitments from Arab and
especially Gulf nations, and specifically how the Saudi
Arabian Government (SAG) has inquired to the (Government of
Egypt) GOE about the utility of their financing to the
Palestinian Authority given the deteriorating situation.
Lastly, Essa argued that the situation in Lebanon is no
longer "Christian against Muslim, but Shia against Sunni,"
and made clear that Iranian and Syrian incursions into
domestic Lebanese problems were playing factions against each
other and hurting any long-term stability for Lebanon. END
SUMMARY

IRAN, IRAN, IRAN
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2. (S) At the urgent request by the Egyptian Embassy in
Riyadh, Pol Counselor met with Riyadh Egyptian DCM Hussam
Essa on Aug. 13. During the 90 minute meeting, Essa went on
at length, sometimes emotionally, about the threat of Iranian
expansionism and its uranium enrichment program. He
repeatedly requested that Iran become a main topic for the 6
2 1 discussions along with Iraq, and for Egypt to be kept
informed of any P5 1 meetings. He touched on Lebanon, the
Palestinian territories, Arab unity (or lack of),Iraq,
Syria, and the need for regional Saudi leadership. He also
raised the GOE's "grave concern" over reports that Oman had
invited Iran to be an observer in Peninsula Shield, the joint
military defense component of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
Essa advised that these would form the agenda when Saudi King
Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, on his return from Morocco to
the Kingdom, meets with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on
Aug. 15 in Cairo. Note: The press reports that Omani Sultan
Qaboos would join the Abdullah-Mubarak meetings, but Essa
never mentioned Qaboos's participation. Essa said this same
demarche would be delivered to AmEmbassy Cairo by the GOE.

HOW TO STOP IRAN: "SQUEEZE THE COMMON MAN"
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3. (S) Essa recommended separate breakout sessions on Iran
during 6 2 1 meetings. He also stated the GOE would like
to be informed of any information arising from P5 1
meetings regarding Iran. Essa was extremely concerned about
Iranian nuclear ambitions, and noted that escalation
vis-a-vis Iran coincides with problems in Lebanon, Palestine,
and Iraq. Essa's recommendation to thwart Iranian's nuclear
ambitions are "strict economic sanctions, diplomatic

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isolation, and stability in Iraq" while leaving Iran a
"face-saving option" if it acquiesces. In doing so, Essa
admitted recent success in Iraq, stating that "things are
moving in a better way." He asserted forcefully that the
best way to change Iranian behavior is to "squeeze the common
man" through "severe sanctions," which would make it
impossible for the Iranian government to continue "in the way
they are," and hence cripple any popular support, or
toleration, of Iranian expansionism and its nuclear ambitions.


3. (S) Essa remarked that "some Arab brothers are OK with
playing proxy to Iran" as well, identifying Syria and
segments of Lebanon. He argued that Iran is playing the
"factional card" by using proxies to play one side against
one other in a bid for power. Essa also shared the rumor
that Iran was actually settling some of its citizens in Iraq
in order to "influence future referendums."


4. (S) Essa conveyed that the Egyptian Embassy in Tehran had
been contacted by an "Omani diplomat" there, who had relayed
that Oman has invited Iran to have observer status in
Peninsula Shield. Kassem argued that this was obviously "bad
for Peninsula Shield," as the mission of this cooperative
security arrangement is to oppose regional threats, like Iran.

PALESTINIAN INCURSION INTO GAZA: COULD "HAPPEN AGAIN"
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5. (S) Essa spoke of the deteriorating situation in Gaza,
noting that the conflict no longer is between "Israelis and
Palestinians, but between Palestinians and Palestinians,"
referring to the internal political and security struggle
between Hamas and Fatah. He noted that the recent January
2008 flood of Palestinians from Gaza into Egypt as they
breached the security wall north of Rafah was Hamas trying to
"embarrass the Egyptian Government." Essa related that
certain "intelligence reports" suggest the same situation
could unfold again, and very soon. He shared the GOE is
"looking at ways" to prevent the recurrence of another flood
of Palestinians into Egyptian territory.


6. (S) Essa also noted that the Palestinian Authority is
currently in a "grave financial situation." He stated that
the GOE had sent a letter to the SAG to reconfirm its
financial commitments to the Palestinians, to which the
response was clear the SAG was actually giving over 100% of
its obligations. Note: The SAG had separately confirmed to
us their contributions (Reftel). Essa stated the SAG had
complied with 100% of its pledges, the U.A.E. 90%, and
Algeria 75%. He lamented other Arab nations, notably the
other Gulf countries, are not living up to their commitments.
Essa stated that the SAG has approached the GOE regarding
Saudi funding of the Palestinian Authority, expressing
concern over its true utility, as now "Muslims are fighting
Muslims." Essa quipped Saudi Arabia is "the Arab leader we
need." Throughout the discussion on the Palestinians, Essa
never once blamed Israel nor made any negative comments
concerning Israel or Israeli policy, but rather was extremely
concerned that the internal Palestinian conflict over
political and security control was raising questions amongst
donors and Arab supporters.

FACTIONS IN LEBANON: SIGN OF THINGS TO COME?
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7. (S) Essa commented on Lebanon by opining that previously
the conflicts involved "Christian against Muslim," but now
they are "Shia against Sunni, or Muslim against Muslim."

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Essa stated he hoped such a conflict would not spread to
other parts of the Middle East, but warned if such factional
conflicts within Islam were to continue, events similar to
those that are transpiring in Lebanon may arise in other
Islamically "mixed" nations, such as Bahrain, as well as
Saudi Arabia.


8. (S) During the meeting, Essa noted some statistics on
Egyptians population figures in Saudi Arabia as well as Hajj
and Umrah numbers for Egyptian citizens. He stated there are
over 2 million Egyptians in Saudi Arabia, noting that many of
these are illegal overstayers from Hajj and Umrah. Essa
estimated that approximately 75,000 Egyptians travel to Saudi
Arabia for Hajj, and 800,000 for Umrah every year.


9. (S) Essa asked Pol Counselor for a readout on the July
meeting between President Bush and Saudi Foreign Minister
Saud al-Faisal in Washington. He also asked about any
upcoming high-level USG visits to Saudi Arabia, as well as
the status of the several bilateral agreements that were
signed by the USG and SAG during the May POTUS visit. Pol
Counselor was noncommittal in response.


10. (S) COMMENT. Given the Egyptian DCM's urgency and
emotion during this meeting, it appears Iran has crossed a
red line with the GOE. The SAG has long been wary and to an
extent, fearful, of Iran. It seems the Egyptians share these
feelings. Essa's comment about Saudi Arabia being an "Arab
leader" was noteworthy and may have meant to perhaps imply
that Riyadh has eclipsed Cairo as the true leader of the Arab
world. It also appears the SAG is disillusioned and
developing donor fatigue with the Palestinians. The
Abdullah-Murarak-Qaboos meeting in Cairo may yield new Arab
initiatives to counter Iran. We will seek an immediate
readout from the SAG once the King returns to the Kingdom.
END COMMENT.
GFOELLER