Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08RIGA38
2008-01-16 15:48:00
SECRET
Embassy Riga
Cable title:
LATVIAN PLANS IN IRAQ FOR 2008 AND BEYOND
how-toVZCZCXYZ0021 PP RUEHWEB DE RUEHRA #0038/01 0161548 ZNY SSSSS ZZH P 161548Z JAN 08 FM AMEMBASSY RIGA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4661 INFO RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD PRIORITY 0026 RUEHTL/AMEMBASSY TALLINN PRIORITY 4145 RUEHVL/AMEMBASSY VILNIUS PRIORITY 3936 RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 2162 RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
S E C R E T RIGA 000038
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2033
TAGS: PINR MARR PREL MOPS EAID NATO EUN IZ LG
SUBJECT: LATVIAN PLANS IN IRAQ FOR 2008 AND BEYOND
(C-RE8-00009)
REF: STATE 2310
Classified By: Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey. Reason: 1.4 (C)
S E C R E T RIGA 000038
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2033
TAGS: PINR MARR PREL MOPS EAID NATO EUN IZ LG
SUBJECT: LATVIAN PLANS IN IRAQ FOR 2008 AND BEYOND
(C-RE8-00009)
REF: STATE 2310
Classified By: Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey. Reason: 1.4 (C)
1. (S) In response to reftel, post submits the following
responses to the questions posed:
A. (S) WHAT ARE EUROPEAN LEADERS' LONG-TERM (I.E., BEYOND
2008) PLANS FOR THEIR FORCES AND OTHER EFFORTS IN IRAQ?
(S) Latvian leaders believe that they have made their
contribution to Iraq with their combat deployment from 2004 -
2007. They are willing to retain a very small number of
troops in Iraq to assist with training and HQ operations, but
are unlikely to return substantial combat forces absent a
significant change in Iraq. Latvia will offer political
support for continued efforts to stabilize, democratize and
rebuild Iraq, but economic assistance is unlikely to be
forthcoming.
B. (S) WHICH, IF ANY, EUROPEAN PARTNERS PLAN ON HAVING
FORCES IN IRAQ DURING 2008 AND BEYOND?
C. (S) WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTIVE FORCE SIZES, AND WHAT ROLE
DO THEY PLAN TO PLAY IN-COUNTRY, TO INCLUDE COMBAT
OPERATIONS, BASE PROTECTION, TRAINING, AND TECHNICAL
ASSISTANCE?
(S) (Response to B and C jointly) Latvia can be expected to
continue to have a few (3 - 5) soldiers in Iraq through 2008,
and likely beyond, if appropriate training and HQ billets are
available.
D. (S) WHAT NON-MILITARY CONTRIBUTIONS, SUCH AS ECONOMIC
ASSISTANCE, DO THE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES PLAN TO UNDERTAKE IN
2008 AND BEYOND?
(S) Latvia is unlikely to make economic contributions to
Iraq. It is just starting to become a donor nation and its
priorities are Afghanistan and FSU states such as Georgia,
Moldova, Belarus and Ukraine.
E. (S) PLEASE PROVIDE ANY INSIGHT INTO WHICH COUNTRIES
MIGHT BE RESPONSIVE TO INCENTIVES FROM THE U.S. WHAT FORMS
MIGHT THESE INCENTIVES TAKE?
(S) The size and current op tempo of the Latvian military
mean that a significant increase in military forces is
virtually impossible, no matter what incentives might be
offered.
F. (S) WHAT ARE THE LEGAL AUTHORITIES THAT THESE COUNTRIES
NEED IN ORDER TO CONTINUE TO OPERATE IN IRAQ?
(S) Latvian troops in Iraq operate under a parliamentary
mandate. It was most recently extended in December 2007 to
December 31, 2008. In recent years, the mandate extension
has not faced significant political challenges, which can be
expected to continue if the situation in Iraq does not
significantly deteriorate. While a UNSC mandate is not a
requirement for the deployment of Latvian troops, having one
is helpful in addressing the concerns of members of
parliament and securing their support.
G. (S) HOW MIGHT DOMESTIC ELECTIONS HELD BY SOME OF THE
EUROPEAN PARTNERS IN 2008 AFFECT THEIR CONTRIBUTIONS IN IRAQ?
(S) No elections are scheduled in Latvia in 2008. The next
elections will be in June 2009 for local governments and the
European Parliament.
H. (S) ARE ANY EUROPEAN COUNTRIES LOOKING FOR WAYS TO
BECOME MORE INVOLVED ON IRAQ? IF SO, WHAT WAYS ARE THEY
CONSIDERING AND WHY? IF NOT, WHY?
(S) As noted above, Latvian leaders feel that they have done
their part already.
I. (S) WHAT DO EUROPEAN LEADERS VIEW AS THEIR INTERESTS AT
STAKE IN IRAQ?
(S) Latvia views Iraq almost exclusively through the prism of
relations with the U.S. They view helping us in Iraq as the
way to ensure that we will be there to help them when they
need assistance in future. Some political leaders have a
broad idea of expanding democracy, but even those who view
Iraq through that lens would say that the only reason for
Latvia to help out in Iraq is to support the United States.
J. (S) WHAT INVESTMENT OR CONTRACT OPPORTUNITIES ARE
EUROPEAN LEADERS LOOKING FOR IN IRAQ?
(S) Difficult supply routes and lack of local knowledge do
not make Iraq a place that Latvian leaders think of for
expansion of economic activities.
K. (S) WHAT DO EUROPEAN LEADERS VIEW AS CONSTRAINTS TO
THEIR GREATER INVOLVEMENT IN IRAQ?
(S) Politically - the deep unpopularity of the Iraq mission
among the Latvian public and the perception that this is not
important to Latvian interests. Practically - the strain on
Latvian forces in deploying there (especially in providing
logistical support); limited budget resources; and unhappy
memories of their time working under Polish command in Iraq.
L. (S) HOW DO THE EUROPEANS VIEW THE SECURITY SITUATION IN
IRAQ? DO THEY BELIEVE IT IS GETTING BETTER, WORSE, OR
STAYING THE SAME? IF BETTER, HOW LONG DO THEY BELIEVE THE
IMPROVED SITUATION WILL LAST?
(S) Latvian officials we have spoken to seem generally to
believe that the situation has improved but they are
skeptical that this can hold for very long.
M. (S) HOW MIGHT EUROPEAN THREAT ASSESSMENT AFFECT
CALCULATIONS ABOUT GREATER ENGAGEMENT?
(S) This is likely to be quite far down the list of Latvia's
thinking. Practical concerns like lack of money and lack of
troops willing to serve there are much more important.
N. (S) DO THE CURRENT EUROPEAN PARTNERS VIEW A BETTER
SECURITY SITUATION AS A REASON TO PULL OUT OF IRAQ?
(S) In the case of the Latvian withdrawal of combat forces in
2007, they specifically pointed to the improved situation in
their AOR as well as the return of local government control
as reasons it was time for them to go.
O. (S) PLEASE PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO WHAT WILL BE THE FUTURE
LEVELS OF ECONOMIC/HUMANITARIAN AID FROM EUROPEAN CAPITALS TO
IRAQ? WILL IT BE INCREASING, DECREASING, OR STAYING CONSTANT?
(S) We expect Latvian contributions to stay constant at zero
or perhaps a few small (less than USD 10,000) ones in coming
years, mainly due to the need to focus limited resources
elsewhere.
P. (S) WHAT UPCOMING EUROPEAN MEETINGS INDICATE POSSIBLE
INCREASED INVOLVEMENT IN IRAQ?
(U) No information available.
Q. (S) WHAT ARE EUROPEAN GOVERNMENT REACTIONS TO CURRENT
PUBLIC SENTIMENTS REGARDING IRAQ?
(S) Latvian officials downplay that there are any Latvian
troops in Iraq at all, knowing that public opinion polls have
consistently shown 80% of the Latvian public oppose the
deployment.
R. (S) ARE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES LOOKING FOR A COHESIVE
EUROPEAN IRAQ POLICY OR IS IRAQ A BILATERAL ISSUE SUBJECT TO
INTERNAL PRIORITIES?
(S) Latvia views Iraq primarily though the bilateral lens,
but it keeps an eye on the European perspective. Even while
working closely with us, they will not take any action that
would isolate them or place them in a very, very small group
within the EU or NATO on Iraq.
BAILEY
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2033
TAGS: PINR MARR PREL MOPS EAID NATO EUN IZ LG
SUBJECT: LATVIAN PLANS IN IRAQ FOR 2008 AND BEYOND
(C-RE8-00009)
REF: STATE 2310
Classified By: Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey. Reason: 1.4 (C)
1. (S) In response to reftel, post submits the following
responses to the questions posed:
A. (S) WHAT ARE EUROPEAN LEADERS' LONG-TERM (I.E., BEYOND
2008) PLANS FOR THEIR FORCES AND OTHER EFFORTS IN IRAQ?
(S) Latvian leaders believe that they have made their
contribution to Iraq with their combat deployment from 2004 -
2007. They are willing to retain a very small number of
troops in Iraq to assist with training and HQ operations, but
are unlikely to return substantial combat forces absent a
significant change in Iraq. Latvia will offer political
support for continued efforts to stabilize, democratize and
rebuild Iraq, but economic assistance is unlikely to be
forthcoming.
B. (S) WHICH, IF ANY, EUROPEAN PARTNERS PLAN ON HAVING
FORCES IN IRAQ DURING 2008 AND BEYOND?
C. (S) WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTIVE FORCE SIZES, AND WHAT ROLE
DO THEY PLAN TO PLAY IN-COUNTRY, TO INCLUDE COMBAT
OPERATIONS, BASE PROTECTION, TRAINING, AND TECHNICAL
ASSISTANCE?
(S) (Response to B and C jointly) Latvia can be expected to
continue to have a few (3 - 5) soldiers in Iraq through 2008,
and likely beyond, if appropriate training and HQ billets are
available.
D. (S) WHAT NON-MILITARY CONTRIBUTIONS, SUCH AS ECONOMIC
ASSISTANCE, DO THE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES PLAN TO UNDERTAKE IN
2008 AND BEYOND?
(S) Latvia is unlikely to make economic contributions to
Iraq. It is just starting to become a donor nation and its
priorities are Afghanistan and FSU states such as Georgia,
Moldova, Belarus and Ukraine.
E. (S) PLEASE PROVIDE ANY INSIGHT INTO WHICH COUNTRIES
MIGHT BE RESPONSIVE TO INCENTIVES FROM THE U.S. WHAT FORMS
MIGHT THESE INCENTIVES TAKE?
(S) The size and current op tempo of the Latvian military
mean that a significant increase in military forces is
virtually impossible, no matter what incentives might be
offered.
F. (S) WHAT ARE THE LEGAL AUTHORITIES THAT THESE COUNTRIES
NEED IN ORDER TO CONTINUE TO OPERATE IN IRAQ?
(S) Latvian troops in Iraq operate under a parliamentary
mandate. It was most recently extended in December 2007 to
December 31, 2008. In recent years, the mandate extension
has not faced significant political challenges, which can be
expected to continue if the situation in Iraq does not
significantly deteriorate. While a UNSC mandate is not a
requirement for the deployment of Latvian troops, having one
is helpful in addressing the concerns of members of
parliament and securing their support.
G. (S) HOW MIGHT DOMESTIC ELECTIONS HELD BY SOME OF THE
EUROPEAN PARTNERS IN 2008 AFFECT THEIR CONTRIBUTIONS IN IRAQ?
(S) No elections are scheduled in Latvia in 2008. The next
elections will be in June 2009 for local governments and the
European Parliament.
H. (S) ARE ANY EUROPEAN COUNTRIES LOOKING FOR WAYS TO
BECOME MORE INVOLVED ON IRAQ? IF SO, WHAT WAYS ARE THEY
CONSIDERING AND WHY? IF NOT, WHY?
(S) As noted above, Latvian leaders feel that they have done
their part already.
I. (S) WHAT DO EUROPEAN LEADERS VIEW AS THEIR INTERESTS AT
STAKE IN IRAQ?
(S) Latvia views Iraq almost exclusively through the prism of
relations with the U.S. They view helping us in Iraq as the
way to ensure that we will be there to help them when they
need assistance in future. Some political leaders have a
broad idea of expanding democracy, but even those who view
Iraq through that lens would say that the only reason for
Latvia to help out in Iraq is to support the United States.
J. (S) WHAT INVESTMENT OR CONTRACT OPPORTUNITIES ARE
EUROPEAN LEADERS LOOKING FOR IN IRAQ?
(S) Difficult supply routes and lack of local knowledge do
not make Iraq a place that Latvian leaders think of for
expansion of economic activities.
K. (S) WHAT DO EUROPEAN LEADERS VIEW AS CONSTRAINTS TO
THEIR GREATER INVOLVEMENT IN IRAQ?
(S) Politically - the deep unpopularity of the Iraq mission
among the Latvian public and the perception that this is not
important to Latvian interests. Practically - the strain on
Latvian forces in deploying there (especially in providing
logistical support); limited budget resources; and unhappy
memories of their time working under Polish command in Iraq.
L. (S) HOW DO THE EUROPEANS VIEW THE SECURITY SITUATION IN
IRAQ? DO THEY BELIEVE IT IS GETTING BETTER, WORSE, OR
STAYING THE SAME? IF BETTER, HOW LONG DO THEY BELIEVE THE
IMPROVED SITUATION WILL LAST?
(S) Latvian officials we have spoken to seem generally to
believe that the situation has improved but they are
skeptical that this can hold for very long.
M. (S) HOW MIGHT EUROPEAN THREAT ASSESSMENT AFFECT
CALCULATIONS ABOUT GREATER ENGAGEMENT?
(S) This is likely to be quite far down the list of Latvia's
thinking. Practical concerns like lack of money and lack of
troops willing to serve there are much more important.
N. (S) DO THE CURRENT EUROPEAN PARTNERS VIEW A BETTER
SECURITY SITUATION AS A REASON TO PULL OUT OF IRAQ?
(S) In the case of the Latvian withdrawal of combat forces in
2007, they specifically pointed to the improved situation in
their AOR as well as the return of local government control
as reasons it was time for them to go.
O. (S) PLEASE PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO WHAT WILL BE THE FUTURE
LEVELS OF ECONOMIC/HUMANITARIAN AID FROM EUROPEAN CAPITALS TO
IRAQ? WILL IT BE INCREASING, DECREASING, OR STAYING CONSTANT?
(S) We expect Latvian contributions to stay constant at zero
or perhaps a few small (less than USD 10,000) ones in coming
years, mainly due to the need to focus limited resources
elsewhere.
P. (S) WHAT UPCOMING EUROPEAN MEETINGS INDICATE POSSIBLE
INCREASED INVOLVEMENT IN IRAQ?
(U) No information available.
Q. (S) WHAT ARE EUROPEAN GOVERNMENT REACTIONS TO CURRENT
PUBLIC SENTIMENTS REGARDING IRAQ?
(S) Latvian officials downplay that there are any Latvian
troops in Iraq at all, knowing that public opinion polls have
consistently shown 80% of the Latvian public oppose the
deployment.
R. (S) ARE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES LOOKING FOR A COHESIVE
EUROPEAN IRAQ POLICY OR IS IRAQ A BILATERAL ISSUE SUBJECT TO
INTERNAL PRIORITIES?
(S) Latvia views Iraq primarily though the bilateral lens,
but it keeps an eye on the European perspective. Even while
working closely with us, they will not take any action that
would isolate them or place them in a very, very small group
within the EU or NATO on Iraq.
BAILEY