Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08RIGA199
2008-04-17 09:58:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy Riga
Cable title:  

PRESIDENT ZATLERS' VISIT TO WASHINGTON

Tags:  PREL MOPS CVIS ENRG MARR NATO RS LG 
pdf how-to read a cable
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2018
TAGS: PREL MOPS CVIS ENRG MARR NATO RS LG
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT ZATLERS' VISIT TO WASHINGTON

Classified By: Ambassador Charles W. Larson, Jr. Reason: 1.4 (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RIGA 000199

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2018
TAGS: PREL MOPS CVIS ENRG MARR NATO RS LG
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT ZATLERS' VISIT TO WASHINGTON

Classified By: Ambassador Charles W. Larson, Jr. Reason: 1.4 (d)


1. (C/NF) Latvian President Valdis Zatlers makes his first
visit to Washington April 23 - 25 significantly stronger in
his job than when he started, but still not the dominant
figure in Latvian politics that his predecessor was. Given
the strong constitutional limitations on his role, this is
only natural. Over his first nine months in office he has
begun to develop his own voice. It is a voice that is
trans-Atlantic in orientation, supportive of freedom and
democracy, skeptical of Russia, and anti-corruption. He has
been very helpful on key issues for us, often behind the
scenes, including the reappointment of the intelligence chief
and maintaining the planned deployment of a Latvian OMLT to
Afghanistan. The visit will boost Zatlers' legitimacy at
home and contribute to his further growth in these areas. In
his meetings he will focus on Latvia's desire to join visa
waiver, concerns about Russia (including energy security),
support for democracy in the former Soviet sphere, and NATO
issues such as Latvian contributions to ISAF and the future
of the CFE arrangements. Our message to Zatlers should be
that in the absence of significant executive powers, his
greatest asset is his voice and that he can serve as the
moral compass of the nation. Even if he cannot write policy,
he can help shape it. With continued tension likely among
parliamentary parties, Zatlers is going to be the constant in
Latvian politics through 2011. This visit is an opportunity
to ensure that he keeps Latvia on the path of advancing our
mutual interests and common values. End summary.


2. (U) Latvian President Valdis Zatlers, accompanied by
Defense Minister Vinets Veldre and MFA state secretary
Normans Penke, will travel to Washington April 22 - 25 for
meetings with the Vice President, Secretary Rice and other

U.S. officials. He also will have meetings on Capitol Hill.
He will then continue on to the annual congress of
Latvian-Americans, being held this year in Cleveland April 25
- 27.


3. (C) Valdis Zatlers came to the presidency in July 2007 in
a weak position. First of all, no president could
immediately fill the shoes of Vaira Vike-Freiberga who left
office as the dominant figure in Latvian politics. Second,
the political naivete of Zatlers combined with the ethical
baggage for accepting cash "gifts" from patients when a
physician (common practice in Latvia) created a public
perception that he wasn't up to the job. This was not helped
when it was revealed that members of the ruling coalition had
met at the Riga zoo to decide on Zatlers as the coalition's
choice for President. Initial relations with the media were
also rough, which did not improve his public image.


4. (C) In the more than nine months that he has been in
office, though, he has worked to change that image and has
begun to have some success in doing so. Domestically, his
first opportunity came with the public expressions of
frustrations with the Kalvitis government last fall over the
attempted removal of the anti-corruption chief. When nearly
10,000 people gathered in a downtown Riga square last
November, on a cold and snowy day, to demand Kalvitis'
resignation and the dismissal of parliament in Latvia's
largest political protest since the fall of the Soviet Union,
the President watched the proceedings on television. As he
saw the proceedings unfold, he decided that he would go down
and address the crowd. He delivered a short, extemporaneous
address, and while the lack of preparations meant he did not
deliver a stem winder, he got a positive response for showing
up and speaking to the people's angst.


5. (C/NF) As the crisis deepened, Kalvitis was forced to step
down. Those close to Kalvitis told us that he considered
trying to stay on, but that Zatlers told him that if he did,
the President would go public in urging Kalvitis to step
down. When Kalvitis announced his intention to resign,
Zatlers moved quickly to welcome the move and create a
situation in which Kalvitis could not rethink his position.
Zatlers then attempted to manage the succession in a way that
would provide maximum transparency in selection of a new PM,
one of the few powers reserved solely to the President. He
encouraged public debates among the candidates, publication
of platforms, and met with each candidate to discuss the
potential shape of their government and key priorities. He
got high marks for running such an open process, although the
politically savvy of Latvia recognized that he actually
limited his freedom of choice by insisting on such an open
process. When Zatlers realized that the parties were playing
him a bit in the process, he shook things up by "consulting"
with several individuals from outside politics who had been
rumored as potential PM's with no party affiliation. Of the
choices nominated by the parties in the governing coalition,

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Ivars Godmanis, whom Zatlers invited to form government, was
the best choice.


6. (C) Zatlers' public image has also been helped by his
activities in the area of foreign affairs. This is how
Vike-Freiberga built her internal reputation as well because
the Latvian constitution does not constrain presidents in
this area as much it does in domestic politics. One of his
earliest foreign trips was to Afghanistan to see the Latvian
troops there and better understand how Latvia can help. When
Shakashvili was reelected in Georgia, Zatlers was standing
almost directly behind him in shots from the inaugural, which
made many Latvians proud to see such a visible symbol of
support for a country in transition. He also earned high
marks for going to Vilnius for the 90th anniversary of
Lithuanian independence and speaking a few words of
Lithuanian. And while he would no doubt be very excited to
be the first Latvian President to pay a bilateral visit to
Moscow, he will insist on a substantive agenda for the visit.


7. (C) Zatlers stumbled a bit when a newspaper interview with
a Belarusian newspaper seemed to suggest that he thought
conditions in Cuba were pretty good and that he might visit
Belarus, but it is now clear to us that he was attempting to
be sarcastic, something which did not convey across a
language and cultural barrier with the Belarusian journalist.
Since then, he has worked in his public and press comments
to speak more clearly on his support for freedom and
democracy and we are told that he worked on editing his
interventions at the Bucharest summit on these topics to
convey clearly his support for them.


8. (C/NF) Behind the scenes, Zatlers is playing a helpful and
important role. His trip to Afghanistan convinced him that
ISAF must succeed and Latvia must do its part. When DefMin
Veldre, new to the job, suggested in the press that Latvia
might not proceed with deployment of an OMLT, Zatlers very
publicly said that Latvia would fulfill its commitments to
the alliance. In private, advisors to both Zatlers and
Veldre tell us, the President was even more direct with the
minister, telling him that it was irresponsible to cast doubt
on Latvia's reliability as a NATO partner. The deployment is
back on track. Zatlers was also very helpful in securing the
reappointment of the intelligence chief, who is essential for
advancing our interests in information security and in
promoting the rule of law in Latvia.


9. (C) In our interactions, we have found Zatlers to be smart
and engaged. Members of his staff tell us that he has the
ability, likely born of his medical training, to absorb,
retain, and recall a large amount of information. In
meetings, he is much better able than when he started to
articulate his priorities and to ask insightful questions.
And you can always tell that he is listening to and
processing the responses you give him.

What's on his mind
--------------

10. (C) Zatlers will come to Washington wanting to talk
about Latvia's desire to join visa waiver, concerns about
Russia (including energy security),support for democracy in
the former Soviet sphere, and NATO issues such as Latvian
contributions to ISAF and the future of the CFE arrangements.
Visa waiver is the most important foreign policy issue for
the average Latvian, so he is obliged to raise it. With the
signing by Secretary Chertoff of the visa waiver MOU in March
and the recent agreement on the text of an agreement on
terrorist information sharing, we are making good progress.
Zatlers will thank the administration for its support for
Latvian admission to the program and offer assurances that
Latvia is committed to doing what it needs to do to meet all
the criteria. We should stress the importance we attach to
the security requirements for admission to the program as a
useful reminder of the significance of this issue. The
Latvian Embassy is attempting to arrange meetings with
members of Congress skeptical of the program.


11. (C) Zatlers will want to follow up on the Bucharest
decisions on Georgia and Ukraine and seek our thoughts on how
best to ensure a rapid decision to admit them to MAP. Latvia
has offered important assistance to both countries, including
helping Georgia organize its upcoming parliamentary elections
and brining Ukrainian journalists, including Russian speaking
ones, to Latvia to see the benefits of NATO membership. We
should thank him for Latvia's efforts on those countries and
support for Moldova, but also encourage him to play a more
active role in promoting democracy in Belarus, where Latvia
has not been as aggressively engaged as some of the other
states in the region.


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12. (C/NF) Russia is never far from the mind of any Latvian
official, but it's an area where Zatlers has shown particular
interest and concerns, as evidenced by his tough, off the
cuff remarks to Putin at the NRC in Bucharest. In meetings
with us and with visiting US officials he has expressed
concern about possible Russian active measures in Latvia and
asked us to arrange a briefing for him on how Russia employs
such tactics. At the same time, Zatlers has supported the
development of more normal bilateral relations between Latvia
and Russia, but not at any price. He does hope to visit
Moscow later this year, which would make him the first
Latvian president to pay a bilateral visit there. However,
he and the GOL are insisting that a substantive agenda for
the visit be developed first. Zatlers has also made an
effort to reach out to Latvia's ethnic Russian population
more extensively than did his predecessor. One issue that
particularly concerns Zatlers is energy security. Latvia is
wholly dependent on Russia for gas and, with the upcoming
closure of the Ignalina nuclear plant in Lithuania, will
become increasingly dependent on Russia for electricity.
Zatlers will want to compare notes on how Russia under
Medvedev-Putin will behave and hear our ideas on how we can
help promote sensible solutions on energy security.


13. (C) On NATO issues, Zatlers is an important ally within
the GOL and it is no accident that DefMin Veldre will
accompany him on this visit. While always a supporter of
NATO, Zatlers, since coming to office, has come to grasp in a
much more concrete way the practical value to Latvia of NATO
membership and the obligations of membership. While thanking
him for Latvia's current contributions to ISAF and upcoming
deployment of an OMLT, we should gently push him to explore
whether Latvia might consider additional deployments in
future. We have previously set out the operational and
financial barriers to this, which still exist, but it is
still worth mentioning. Zatlers may also raise Latvia's
continued concern that the ongoing stalemate with Russia over
the CFE treaty and the possibility that Latvia will be asked
to make concessions, which Russia will pocket without taking
reciprocal action. He is likely to acknowledge the positive
light in which they view the EUCOM/DOD-led consultations with
the Baltics on security issues and seek a reaffirmation that
any discussions with the Russians on CFE will be based on
agreed NATO positions and that that we will not talk about
the Baltics without at least consulting them first ("nothing
about you without you").


14. (C/NF) Washington interlocutors should also raise the
importance of transparency and the rule of law. Corruption
remains a serious issue in Latvia and power is far too
concentrated in the hands of a few. We should be concerned
because the country that stands to benefit from this is
Russia, which has no qualms about its companies operating in
such an environment and uses those economic/commercial ties
for political influence. Many Latvian leaders, naively and
wrongly in our view, believe that they can manage this in the
same way that the played Moscow in Soviet days. Zatlers
needs to hear from senior US officials that we attach
importance to fighting corruption and believe he is in a
position to influence politics in Latvia for the better. The
Latvian Ambassador to the US told us that when Secretary
Chertoff made similar points to Zatlers on his visit here
last month, the president came away "energized" on fighting
corruption. We also observe that, based on the carping that
he was selected to do the bidding of the oligarchs, Zatlers
recognizes that taking a firm stand against corruption is an
important indicator of his independence.


15. (C) While in the U.S., Zatlers will be meeting with
representatives of Jewish groups to whom the Latvian Jewish
community has entrusted the task of reviving the stalled
negotiations on restitution of the small number of remaining
communal properties and the heirless private property seized
in WWII. A statement of USG support for these efforts would
help push the President to engage on this issue and push the
cabinet for action.


16. (C) We believe that this visit offers an opportunity to
bolster a relatively new leader who is still finding his way
but whose basic policy inclinations are helpful in many areas
and who desires a close and effective partnership with the
United States.
LARSON