Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08RANGOON301
2008-04-30 10:31:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Rangoon
Cable title:  

BURMA: NLD STRUGGLES TO MONITOR THE REFERENDUM

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM BM 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000301 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO
PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/29/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: NLD STRUGGLES TO MONITOR THE REFERENDUM

REF: RANGOON 284

RANGOON 00000301 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: P/E Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000301

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO
PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/29/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: NLD STRUGGLES TO MONITOR THE REFERENDUM

REF: RANGOON 284

RANGOON 00000301 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: P/E Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary: The NLD is struggling to organize
volunteers to monitor polling for the regime's May 10
constitutional referendum. Each NLD Division chair is
responsible for organizing observers for his/her own
division, but we detected little coordination among them.
The NLD's lead organizer for Rangoon Division could provide
only a vague description of how his monitoring effort would
be organized and admitted he was having difficulty raising
funds for mobile phones so his volunteers could report their
observations to NLD headquarters. He gratefully accepted
Embassy Rangoon's offer to include NLD volunteers in the
election monitor training we will host before May 10. End
summary.


2. (C) Embassy officers met with Aye Tun, NLD leader form
Yankin Township, who is one of the key organizers of the
NLD's project to monitor voting during the May 10
constitutional referendum. Aye Tun is responsible for
overseeing the monitoring in Rangoon Division, which he has
organized into seven geographical regions for monitoring
purposes. Though he could give us no concrete numbers, Aye
Tun claimed he had organized a number of NLD Youth and party
supporters and sympathizers, who would observe voting
precincts throughout Rangoon division. Aye Tun said that on
May 10, these observers would report to NLD headquarters the
voting processes they observe and any irregularities that
they see.


3. (C) While Aye Tun said the NLD hoped to obtain vote
tallies from each precinct, he could not explain how this
would be done. While the NLD aims to have a representative
among the ten persons the referendum law states would be
allowed to observe the vote counting, they expressed concern
that the regime's announcement that only the last ten voters
would be allowed to observe the vote counting might prevent
them from doing so. Aye Tun also admitted that the local
authorities were unlikely to permit anyone remotely
associated with the NLD to observe the vote counting. As a
last resort, Aye Tun continued, the NLD would obtain vote
tallies from local officials, although he could not explain
where, how, or from whom this would be done.


4. (C) Aye Tun said that NLD observers would also try to
conduct informal exit polling, but noted this would have to
be done well-clear of the precincts. He acknowledged that
many voters would be nervous to speak to someone they did not
know regarding how they had voted. Aye Tun planned on
renting eight mobile phones for his observer teams, but has
only raised enough funds to rent four. The NLD would not
accept money from foreign governments or exile organizations,
Aye Tun emphasized, only donations from NLD members could be
used.


5. (C) Aye Tun told us that other NLD Division Chiefs are
responsible for the election monitoring in their own
divisions, adding that there was little coordination among
them. He did not know what any other NLD organizers were
planning on May 10, he only knew that all information would
be called into NLD headquarters for examination by the NLD
Central Executive Committee (CEC) and released to the outside
media. Aye Tun said the NLD would compare its findings and
coordinate its press releases with the 88 Generation
Students, who are organizing their own election monitoring
effort (reftel).


6. (C) Emboffs offered to include Aye Tun's volunteers in
the election monitoring training Dr. Eric Stover from the UC
Berkeley Human Rights Center would conduct before the May 10
referendum. Aye Tun admitted the NLD desperately needed the
training and said he would put together a list of those for
whom it would be most useful and those who would be best
placed to train others before referendum day.


7. (C) Comment: With its best organizers and activists

RANGOON 00000301 002.2 OF 002


imprisoned, the NLD is struggling to meet the challenge of
monitoring the referendum. We doubt anyone will be able to
obtain accurate vote tallies; the regime will do everything
possible to guard the actual results so that it can announce
whatever outcome it pleases. Monitoring efforts, however
poorly coordinated, can offer more evidence of the Than Shwe
regime's flouting of international electoral standards. End
comment.
VILLAROSA