KAREN STATE: PEACE A PRIORITY IN THE REFERENDUM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000258

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SUBJECT: KAREN STATE: PEACE A PRIORITY IN THE REFERENDUM


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Classified By: Poloff Chelsia Wheeler for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary. Karens are deeply divided over whether or
not to support the constitution in the upcoming May
referendum. While most of the general population wants peace
and opposes anything produced by the government, they live in
fear of the consequences of voting no. Karen leaders also
want peace, but fall on either side in the debate over what
is the best means of obtaining it: supporting the regime's
draft constitution or waiting for an improved version. End
Summary.

Public Sentiment: Anti-Government, Pro-Peace
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2. (C) During a March 28-30 trip to Hpa-An, Karen State,
Poloff learned that almost all rural people, and a majority
of those who live in the city, know very little about the
upcoming referendum or the constitution. Most Karen are
extremely poor and are far more interested in crossing the
border into Thailand to obtain better work and higher pay,
than with politics within their own country. The government
has restricted the information flow into the area far more
than it has in the urban areas of Rangoon and Mandalay.
According to Nant Khin Htwe Myint of the Hpa-An NLD, internet
cafe owners must keep detailed logs of their customers and
report the names of all users to the police. They also
charge around 3,000 kyat (USD 2.70) per hour of internet use,
far more than an average daily salary in Hpa-An.


3. (C) Despite the lack of access to good information on the
draft constitution and referendum, all of our
contacts-including those who themselves support the
constitution-agreed that the general public in Karen State
will probably vote no. After more than fifty years of civil
war during which the government has done nothing good for
them, few Karens are likely to support anything that the
regime proposes. According to Saw Lun Shein, a delegate to
last summer's National Convention, Karens consider the
referendum to be a chance to express their true feelings.


4. (C) Counterbalancing the strong opposition to the
government is a lack of organization among opposition leaders
and fear of reprisals for voting no. Other than simply
asking people to support the constitution during the
registration process, the government has done little to
campaign in favor of the draft. Nevertheless, said Saw Lun
Shein, the people still believe that the government will
punish them somehow if they do not support the constitution.
The opposition is just as disorganized as the government.
Saw Lun Shein hoped that the traditional return of migrants
from Thailand for the upcoming Water Festival would also
bring information about the constitution from outside of the
country, where people have regular access to a free press and
the internet. There will be no formal activities, but he
believed that conversations will start in private homes about
the implications of the referendum, leading to wider
awareness in the general population of the issues at stake.

Support the Constitution: Peace Over Freedom
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5. (C) Half of those we met with during the trip said that
they will support the constitution in May. Major Victor, who
fought in the KNU for 26 years before retiring to run a
dialogue center at the Anglican Church in Hpa-An, said that
the constitution would bring all Karen and other ethnics
together and provide a starting point for meaningful
dialogue. The first priority is peace, he asserted, and the
constitution is the best means of doing away with arms and
bringing people to the negotiating table. He believed the
constitution offered a chance for the people to engage the
military in the parliament, a necessary step on the road to
democracy.


6. (C) Ashin Pinnya Thami, head monk of the influential
Taunggalay Monastery and a strong sympathizer with the KNU,
is also supportive, but far more cautious than Major Victor.

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He agreed that all Karen want peace and expressed his
exhaustion from the long insurgency. He also saw this as a
rare chance for the people to come forward and express their
desires. Another chance to engage the government like this
may not come for a long time, he said. He noted, however,
that monks throughout the country will watch the polling
process carefully and will not be afraid to speak out if the
government manipulates the results to ensure approval. He
harbored little confidence that the government would conduct
the vote fairly.

Oppose the Constitution: Peace, Freedom Over Oppression
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7. (C) Nant Khin Htwe Myint of the NLD agreed that the
government would probably cheat and emphasized the importance
of expressing public opposition to a constitution drafted
under unfair conditions. She estimated that 90 percent of
the people in Hpa-An would vote against the constitution, but
could not say anything about people in the villages. Only
three miles outside of Hpa-An, she noted, very few people can
even speak Burmese and therefore have even less access to
information about the constitution. They will not be able to
read the ballots in May, let alone make informed decisions.


8. (C) Saw Lun Shein will vote no. He believed that it was
important to oppose the regime, even though he had no
confidence that the conditions in the country would change
after the referendum, regardless of the outcome. He also did
not expect that the Karen would lead any opposition movements
in response to an unfair referendum. The people here are
tired of fighting, he said, and they live in more fear of
government crackdown than other parts of the country. "They
know what they should do," he said, but acting on that
knowledge is another matter.

The View From Mawlamyine
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9. (C) During a brief stop in Mawlamyine, Mon State, on March
30, we met with Bishop Raymond Saw Poe Ray, who echoed much
of what we heard in Karen State. He will support the
constitution in the interests of peace, he said. The
constitution will provide a crucial step on the road to
democracy, but he also distrusts the government.
Nevertheless, "we need evolution, not revolution," he
asserted. The government will reform slowly and it will take
time. While the Mon also feel oppressed, he said that they
are tired of the fighting and want peace in whatever way it
comes.


10. (C) Comment: After five decades of civil war, people
understandably want peace. The referendum presents the
question of whether this peace can come gradually, evolving
from a flawed constitution or whether people should withhold
their support until something closer to ideal comes along.
In deciding between the two, fear of the Than Shwe regime
will factor importantly in how they cast their votes in May.
End Comment.
VILLAROSA