BURMA: REGIME CONTINUES PRE-REFERENDUM ARRESTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000245

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO
PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: REGIME CONTINUES PRE-REFERENDUM ARRESTS

REF: RANGOON 234

RANGOON 00000245 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: P/E Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary: Authorities continue to arrest peaceful
protesters and political activists. Over the weekend, six
participants in a March 27 "vote no" demonstration were
arrested, as well as five Muslim leaders in Rakhine State.
An NLD vice township chairman was beaten in an intimidation
attack identical to last week's assault on Burmese Human
Rights Activist Myint Aye. The pro-democracy opposition
remains disorganized in their response to the constitutional
referendum and continue to wait for the NLD to take a public
stand. Ordinary Burmese are largely confused regarding the
referendum and believe that, whatever the outcome, it will
only benefit the regime. A WFP source in Wa Territory
informed us the Wa leadership has decided to support the
draft constitution. End summary.

Arrests and Attacks Continue
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2. (SBU) The NLD confirmed to us that on March 29,
authorities arrested six youth activists, including three NLD
members. The six participated in a "vote no" protest outside
NLD headquarters on Armed Forces Day. The regime has yet to
acknowledge their arrest or provide any information on their
whereabouts or condition.


3. (SBU) Additionally, A Rakhine State Muslim contact
informed us that five Muslim community leaders were arrested
March 30 in Maungdaw, Rakhine State, while holding a meeting.
Media reports claimed ten leaders had been arrested during a
meeting at the house of Maungdaw District Myanmar Muslim
leader U Than Tun, and attributed the arrest as politically
motivated.


4. (SBU) Separately, a NLD Vice Township Chairman, U Myint
Hlaing, was attacked from behind over the weekend and beaten
with sticks. The attack was identical to the assault against
Human Right Defenders and Promoters leader U Myint Aye that
occurred last week (reftel). Activists cite this as further
evidence that the regime will use violence to intimidate
voters prior to the referendum.

Opposition Disorganized, Ordinary People Confused
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5. (C) During meetings this week with several political
activists from NLD Youth, 88 Generation, and ethnic
nationality groups, many expressed increasing disappointment
with the NLD leadership for their continuing failure to take
a clear stand on the upcoming constitutional referendum. The
NLD is undergoing bitter infighting, one NLD Youth member
told us. Former military members are fighting with the
civilians within the party, and the NLD Youth are fighting
with their elders, who they feel shut them out of political
deliberations and are too hesitant to support political
activists. They express growing frustration about the lack
of guidance from the NLD when the time remaining before the
referendum is so short.


6. (C) During several meetings over the past week with
INGOs, local NGOs, and community and political activists, all
indicated that only a handful of people actually understand
the specifics of the draft constitution and the implication
of the referendum. Political activists are trying hard to
spread the word, but their reach is limited and confined to
quiet word-of-mouth effort. Internet campaigns reach only a
small urban minority. Many advocated for more effective
radio programming on the Burmese and ethnic language radio
stations in order to reach the rural populations. They
specifically requested programming analyzing the pros and
cons of the draft constitution to assist ordinary Burmese in
making an informed decision on referendum day.


7. (C) Many of our contacts believe most people will vote
"no" because of their lack of confidence in and distaste of

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the regime. At the same time, many Burmese fear that the
military will somehow know how they will vote and retaliate
against those who vote no. Thus, no one will be surprised if
the regime manipulates results to guarantee approval of its
sham constitution.

Wa Ready to Approve the Constitution
--------------


8. (C) Ethnic Cease-fire groups will be key to the outcome of
the referendum. Spurned by the mostly-Burman pro-democracy
movement, the support of the cease-fire groups has been key
to the case the regime makes to its neighbors that it is the
only institution capable of ensuring stability in Burma.
Many of the cease-fire groups have not yet taken a public
position on the referendum. Although we receive reports that
Kachins, Karens, and Mons will likely vote against.


9. (C) According to the head of the WFP's field office in Wa
Territory, a liaison officer from Nay Pyi Taw visited the Wa
Central Committee last week with messages from Secretary 1
Tin Aung Mying Oo and Intel Chief Ye Myint. The SPDC leaders
urged the Wa to allow the immigration teams in the region
issuing temporary registration cards to resume their work,
which the Wa had halted, and asked them to vote to approve
the constitution. They are the best armed of the cease-fire
groups due to their narcotics trafficking, and have the most
autonomy of the cease-fire groups. Distinction from the rest
of Shan State has always been one of their objectives.


10. (C) After many rounds of meetings and discussions, the
Wa leadership decided that the Wa should support the draft
constitution because, for the first time, it will grant the
Wa the status of a Self Administered Division. Wa Chairman
Bao, who was reluctant to endorse the decision, has
reportedly agreed.

Comment:
--------------


11. (C) Though no one likes the regime, and bitterness and
anger from September remain, pro-democracy forces remain
divided. The voices advocating "vote no" have taken a
scatter-shot approach, rather than uniting behind a common
message. Many look to Aung San Suu Kyi's NLD party to
provide guidance, which it has yet to do. Most of the
population remains clueless about what the referendum or
constitution means. Absent effective leadership, and facing
many obstacles in communicating widely, the committed
activists recognize that the Than Shwe regime can easily
ensure their sham constitution is approved. However, no one
will be fooled that either the referendum or the constitution
reflects the will of the people. End comment.
VILLAROSA