DISORGANIZATION AND DISUNITY PRECEDE BURMA'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 RANGOON 000215

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO
PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: DISORGANIZATION AND DISUNITY PRECEDE BURMA'S
CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM

REF: RANGOON 181

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Classified By: P/E Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary: As the regime's planned constitutional
referendum draws nearer, the opposition remains disorganized
and scattered. Infighting among pro-democracy groups
continues, with tension between the NLD's senior leaders,
ethnic pro-democracy leaders, and the NLD's younger members
coming to a head. The one exception is 88 Generation
Students, led by Toe Kyaw Hlaing, who is traveling Burma and
working relentlessly to organize monks, NLD Youth, and the
frustrated MPs-elect, to coordinate a vote "No" campaign in
response to the referendum. Ethnic nationality cease-fire
groups are also fractured and disorganized. They are
reluctant to take a position on the referendum or announce
their strategies until they have thoroughly reviewed the
draft constitution, which the regime has yet to release to
them. Surprisingly, the regime seems equally disorganized
and uncoordinated in mounting their vote "Yes" campaign. End
summary.


2. (C) Over the last week, pol/econ officers have met with a
broad range of contacts from the NLD, 88 Generation, the
ethnic nationalities and cease-fire groups, businessmen,
journalists, and ordinary citizens to assess the regime's
efforts to promote a "Yes" vote in the upcoming
constitutional referendum, and the opposition's efforts to
defeat it. As the May referendum draws nearer, the
infighting and discord among the pro-democracy opposition
appears to be increasing. The opposition's response to the
referendum is uncoordinated and disorganized with the
exception of 88 Generation Students. Most groups are
increasingly frustrated with the NLD Uncles' refusal to come
forward with a public stance and provide guidance to the
pro-democracy movement and the Burmese people.


3. (C) NLD spokesman U Nyan Win told us the Uncles have been
pushed hard by the MPs-elect and the NLD Youth to take a
public stand on the referendum. He continued to insist that
the Uncles had decided to vote "No", and were working on
details and procedures of how to disseminate their
instructions. Nyan Win believed the procedures would be
announced no later than the end of March. He added that,
given current tensions within the opposition, the referendum
could be the NLD's last battle. The NLD would lose all
credibility among the Burmese if it could not lead the public
at such a critical moment, he opined.

MON STATE
--------------


4. (C) Major Nai Htar Wara of the New Mon State Party (NMSP)
told poloff that the party's leadership supported a "no" vote
rather than a boycott and have privately urged its members to
reject the regime's constitution in the May referendum. He
said the NMSP planned to issue a public statement calling on
the Mon people to reject the charter "when the time is right"
but would not elaborate on when that might be. He commented
that most people in Mon State did not understand the
referendum or what was at stake, so might not participate as
a result. Nonetheless, Nai Htar Wara was confident that if
properly educated, the people would want to vote "no."
Despite this, he acknowledged that NMSP had done little to
promote an awareness of the issues at stake and did not have
a well-developed plan to do so.


5. (C) Nai Htar Wara reported that earlier this month, NMSP
officials met with the Burma Army's regional commander to
discuss the referendum. The commander asked to meet with
party leaders to urge them to support the referendum and
passage of the constitution. Nai Htar Wara described the
meeting as civil but stressed that the NMSP did not agree to
support the regime's constitution. He also pointed out that
so far, the regime has not used heavy-handed tactics in Mon
State to promote its constitution, relying instead on the
issuance of temporary registration cards to encourage people

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to vote "yes."

CHIN STATE
--------------


6. (C) Zomi National Congress Joint Secretary Khan Lyan
informed us that a coalition of Chin ethnic groups have
decided to support a boycott of the referendum. However, the
alliance of the Zomi National Congress, Zomi Revolutionary
Army, and Chin National Front have not issued any public
statements calling on the Chin people to boycott and have not
yet discussed any plans to do so. Khan Lyan claimed that
Chin insurgents planned to attack polling places in rebel
"strongholds" near the Indian border, but acknowledged the
insurgency's relative weakness made this unlikely.

KACHIN STATE
--------------


7. (C) Kachin ethnic negotiator Dr. Saboi Jum told us key
Kachin groups were waiting to see the draft constitution
before formally taking a position on the referendum.
However, he relayed that most leaders he had spoken with were
increasingly pessimistic that the regime had taken their
concerns into account in drafting the charter. Members of
the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO),Kachin Defense
Army (KDA),and New Democratic Army Kachin (NDAK) met in
February to discuss the referendum. Saboi Jum said leaders
of these groups agreed to consult with one another and speak
with one voice on matters concerning the referendum and
roadmap. He relayed their concern that the cease-fire could
be at risk if the referendum approves a constitution that did
not address Kachin concerns. However, he believed the risk
of renewed violence this year was low and said key Kachin
cease-fire leaders would deliberate more before deciding on a
course of action.

RAKHINE STATE/ROHINGYA COMMUNITY
--------------


8. (C) Arakan League for Democracy (ALD) Joint Secretary Aye
Thar Aung personally supported a boycott of the referendum
but said the ALD would likely support whatever public
position the NLD eventually takes. Aye Thar Aung has been
critical of the NLD's failure to take a stand on the
referendum. People are waiting to hear what the NLD will do,
he told us, and the NLD leadership has a responsibility to
advise people whether to boycott or participate in the May
vote. He reiterated these sentiments in a March 19 interview
with Mizzima News. However, despite reports in the same
Mizzima article that the Committee Representing People's
Parliament (CRPP) has called for a boycott, Aye Thar Aung, a
CRPP member, reported that that group of MP's-elect has not
met in more than six months, and stressed its members have
not reached a consensus on the referendum.


9. (C) Our contacts in the Rohingya community informed
Poloff that most of the ethnic Muslim population in Northern
Rakhine State remained opposed to anything the regime
supports. Given the choice, ethnic Rohingya would almost
certainly vote against the constitution. However, Rohingya
activist and historian Myo Thant and former political
prisoner Kyaw Soe Aung were skeptical the regime would permit
the perennially disenfranchised Rohingya population to
participate in the referendum. Additionally, they said they
did not know of any organized campaign in the Rohingya
community to either boycott the referendum or vote "no."

88 Generation
--------------


10. (C) In contrast to the dueling and disorganized ethnic
and pro-democracy groups, 88 Generation, headed by Toe Kyaw
Hlaing, appears to be focused and ploughing forward with
their vote "No" campaign. Toe Kyaw Hlaing operates in close
consultation with 88 Generation and NLD Youth leaders in
hiding, including Nilar Thein, Soe Tun, Tun Myint Aung, and

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Phyu Phyu Thin. Toe Kyaw Hlaing is moving forward with the
vote "No" campaign he described to us in Reftel. Pol/econ
chief met him March 19 after he had just returned from a trip
to upper Burma. During the trip, Toe Kyaw Hlaing met with
most of the chief abbots in Mandalay's monasteries. He
requested that, at the end of the upcoming annual Monk
examinations, in which Monks from all-over Burma gather at
Mandalay's monasteries, the abbots gather the students
together and instruct them to go back to their local
monasteries to educate their patrons on why the regime's
proposed constitution would not bring democracy to Burma.
Toe Kyaw Hlaing said most of the abbots agreed.
Additionally, 88 Generation has just found a government-run
factory with a sympathetic manager who agreed to print 10,000
t-shirts and 30,000 stickers for their vote "No" campaign.


11. (C) Toe Kyaw Hlaing is organizing NLD Youth members, who
are frustrated with the NLD's inaction, to campaign
discreetly in universities. The "92 MPs-elect", who broke
with the CRPP and NLD last year when they appealed to Ban Ki
Moon to form the 1990 Parliament under UN protection, have
also begun to participate in 88 Generation's vote "No"
campaign.


12. (C) Asked if the recent arrests of key Generation Wave
and AFSBU members had hurt his vote "No" campaign, Toe Kyaw
Hlaing responded that the arrests did come as a blow and that
he feared more were to come. Despite this setback, Toe Kyaw
Hlaing insisted 88 Generation's campaign continued and he has
even prepared lower-level members to continue the campaign in
case he was arrested. Toe Kyaw Hlaing added that some monks
and pro-democracy activists in Rangoon and Mandalay want to
hold peaceful demonstrations during the April Water Festival,
but he did not know how strong any turnout would be. For the
time being, he told us, no coordinated plan had the monks
taking to the streets again.

Private Efforts
--------------


13. (C) We also have heard of personal vote "No" campaigns
organized by individuals, who usually keep their distance
from political issues. A journalist told us of her efforts
to educate friends, family members, and people she meets
during her travels around the country of their right as
citizens to vote yes or no. She had also informed them that
she planned to vote no, although she also would talk to
lawyers to determine whether refusing to vote could
effectively serve as a no vote, since she understood that the
law required a majority of eligible voters to vote in favor,
not just a majority of those voting. She also urged her
friends and relatives to volunteer as independent poll
watchers to observe the counting. She expressed regret that
her efforts would not reach more than a few hundred people,
and doubted that the 70% of the population living in rural
areas would be reached by the various vote "No" campaigns
underway. She urged Charge to promote constitutional
educational programming on DVB and RFA, which had wide
listenership including in rural areas. She found most people
had very little idea of the significance of the constitution
and its potential impact on their lives. The only way for
the Burmese public to obtain accurate and objective
information about the proposed constitution, she argued, was
via the short-wave broadcasters.

The Regime
--------------


14. (C) Surprisingly, the regime also appears disorganized
in their efforts to encourage the Burmese to approve the
constitution. Although the regime's mouthpiece daily, The
New Light of Myanmar, carries an editorial each day
instructing why the constitution should be approved, there
appears to be little organized effort to mobilize a vote
"Yes" vote throughout the country. Campaigning appears to be
haphazard, and USDA does not appear to be taking a dominant
roll, although there are scattered reports of some USDA

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officials visiting local residents to urge them to approve
the constitution. One Embassy contact reported that
neighborhood officials visited his home to update the
registration in preparation for the referendum. When he
asked what the referendum was for, they replied they did not
know. An Agriculture Ministry official in Nay Pyi Taw told
the Israeli Ambassador that all Ministry officials had
received copies of the proposed constitution, and were told
to read and study it. However, the official, presumably
well-educated, admitted she did not understand the
constitution.


15. (C) Embassy Small Grantee, Professor Kyaw Zaw Naing,
conducts street law clinics throughout Burma, and just
returned from Shan State where he spoke with schoolteachers,
merchants, and villagers throughout Eastern Shan State about
the proposed constitution and upcoming referendum. He told
poloffs that while there is significant curiosity about the
upcoming referendum, few people understand the significance
or processes of the referendum. He observed no coordinated
efforts on behalf of the government or the opposition to
educate or prepare citizens for the referendum. While the
local government was registering voters for the referendum,
many were not aware why they were even being registered. He
saw no coordinated government campaign to advocate the
constitution's approval. While he expected some Shan civic
organizations would attempt to educate citizens in Shan State
on the constitution and the referendum, so far none had begun
to do so. He estimated that only 7-10 percent of Eastern
Shan State residents were literate in Burmese, and would not
even be able to read the ballot.


16. (C) Comment: Although the pro-democracy opposition
universally opposes the regime's draft constitution, they
show little capacity to mount a coordinated and wide-spread
campaign against it. It is disappointing that at such a
crucial juncture for Burma's future, the opposition and the
ethnic nationalities cannot overcome their differences to
defeat a common enemy. With the exception of 88 Generation,
which has long anticipated and planned for a vote "No"
campaign, other pro-democracy groups are waiting for the NLD
to take the lead, which the Uncles are clearly reluctant to
do. In the absence of the draft constitution, and any
coordinated, public education, many Burmese remain confused
as to whether or how to vote. For that reason, we agree that
a concerted public information campaign by DVB and RFA would
be very important in educating the Burmese public about the
proposed constitution and their right to vote according to
their own personal opinion. End comment.
VILLAROSA