BURMA: SUPPORTING STRATEGIES FOR THE REFERENDUM

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000181

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO
PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2018
TAGS: PGOVQL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: SUPPORTING STRATEGIES FOR THE REFERENDUM

REF: A. RANGOON 153

B. RANGOON 145

C. RANGOON 134

D. CARL-YODER-COPE 10/15/2007 E-MAIL

RANGOON 00000181 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: P/E Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (S/NF) Burma's pro-democracy opposition continues to
struggle to organize a coordinated effort to respond to the
upcoming constitutional referendum. We expect the regime
will continue its severe restrictions on free speech and
association, making it impossible for the opposition to carry
out a widespread, public campaign. Activists inside Burma
plan to carry out a "vote no" educational campaign via
word-of-mouth, and using posters, stickers, and T-shirts.
What would most help them succeed is funding for travel and
equipment such as memory sticks, MP3 players, and cell
phones. We are confidant we could discreetly distribute
these items. $200,000 in additional funding to this Embassy
would enable us to quickly assist the activists. End summary.

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Reality Check
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1. (C) Burma's fractured pro-democracy opposition continues
to grapple with how to address the regime's upcoming
constitutional referendum (Refs B and C). The only group
that has outlined a concrete plan to us (and this includes
U.S.- funded exile groups on the Thai-Burma border) is 88
Generation Students. NLD spokesman Nyan Win told us today
that the NLD still had not finalized a concrete plan for
their "vote no" campaign. He anticipated they would have it
ready by next week. Ethnic pro-democracy leaders inside
Burma told us last week that they had no concrete plan to
oppose the referendum either, even though most oppose the
referendum.


2. (C) In the lead-up to the referendum, we do not
anticipate the regime will loosen the tighter restrictions
imposed since the September protests. We expect a massive
military and police presence as the date of the referendum
approaches to prevent any protests or civil unrest.
Activists are likely to be closely watched during this time.
Likewise, anyone attempting to approach polling stations to
conduct an exit poll not sanctioned by the regime is certain
to be arrested.


3. (C) Regardless of these restrictions, 88 Generation
activists who are not in prison, and remain in Burma, are
determined to go forward with their "vote no" campaign. The
campaign will rely mostly on education via word-of-mouth.
They plan on using sympathetic monks to educate their
constituencies on why the constitution, in its present form,
is not a step forward for democracy in Burma. Additionally,
they will dispatch members of their organization throughout
Burma to distribute educational materials by hand.

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What They Need
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4. (S/NF) 88 Generation has requested approximately $4,300
for "vote no" posters, $2,600 for stickers, and $2,000 for
its members to travel throughout Burma to coordinate with
their members in other states and divisions. We can use the
Embassy print shop and copiers to assist them in making
flyers and pamphlets for their campaigns.


5. (S/NF) In addition, the opposition needs memory sticks
and MP3 players, which they intend to load with educational
material and distribute throughout the country. The players
and memory sticks can be hidden and hand delivered from town
to town by the activists during their travels.


6. (S/NF) Cell phones in Burma are prohibitively expensive,
costing approximately $2,300 each. Since many of their cell
phones were confiscated after the September protests,

RANGOON 00000181 002.2 OF 002


activists urgently need cell phones to facilitate
communication and coordination. Their traditional suppliers
from Thailand have not been able to get them the equipment.
Since cameras are very dangerous to carry, the opposition
would like to procure cell phones with cameras so they can
discreetly take pictures of their campaigns and document
abuses by the regime during the referendum process.


7. (S/NF) Since September, internet communication has been
monitored much more closely by the regime, and Special Branch
Police confiscated many of the activists' computers. Post
again recommends support for the wireless internet connection
we proposed last October (Ref D),to assist the activists in
communicating with pro-democracy groups inside and outside
Burma to organize a coordinated response to the referendum.


8. (S/NF) We would also like to assist in distributing USB
sticks Internews has developed, which allow the activists to
utilize open source software to launch programs, and enables
them to use web browsers without leaving a digital footprint.
These would be invaluable tools for aiding their
communication with each other.


9. (S/NF) Comment: The faster we can move this equipment
and money to the activists the better. The regime plans on
holding its referendum in May, and their "vote yes" campaign
is already in full force. A large, sophisticated, public
campaign will not happen in Burma: the regime shows every
intent of halting any sign of public opposition. The Embassy
has gained experience in distributing small amounts of funds
without attracting additional regime scrutiny of the Embassy
or our recipients. The activists need funds now to prepare
for a vote that could take place as early as two months from
now. We estimate that $200,000 would enable us to assist the
activists with their equipment needs. We will need
considerably more assistance from Washington to facilitate
communications by the activists with the outside world. End
comment.






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