BURMA'S GENERALS WANT OUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000160

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO
PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: BURMA'S GENERALS WANT OUT

RANGOON 00000160 001.4 OF 002


Classified By: P/E Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary: Prominent Burmese businessman Zaw Naing told
us the senior generals are tired of the increasing
international attention and pressure. They are desperate for
an exit, but afraid they and their families will be
prosecuted, jailed, and their fortunes confiscated. They are
determined to stick with the draft constitution to maintain
firm control of the political process and ensure their safety
and well being. Zaw Naing advocated resuming the Beijing
talks so the U.S. could explain its policy in person to
high-level Burmese officials. He predicted most Burmese
businessmen would vote for the new constitution in the
upcoming referendum, as they see no other viable alternative
for Burma to move forward. End summary.

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Tired, Desperate, and Afraid
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2. (C) Embassy contact Zaw Naing is a successful businessman
who has high-level interaction with Burma's ruling generals,
but is also sympathetic to the pro-democracy opposition. Zaw
Naing just returned from Nay Pyi Taw where he spoke to
several of the senior generals. He described their mentality
as "animals trapped in a corner." The generals are tired of
the increasing international attention to the political
situation in Burma and are desperate for an exit, he
believed, including Than Shwe. What prevents them from
actually ceding power, he claimed, was a deep fear that they
and their families will be prosecuted, jailed, and their
fortunes confiscated. The generals also do not want to accept
exile, he added, and have a strong desire to remain in Burma.
This is why the constitution has been drafted to ensure the
military will maintain firm control of the political process,
trusting their military successors will take care of their
own.


3. (C) Zaw Naing asserted that the majority of the military
remain deeply distrustful of the pro-democracy opposition and
see them as the enemy. They regard the opposition as
political opportunists controlled by foreign powers that do
not have Burma's best interest at heart. That said, many of
the generals do not want to rule the country any longer, but
do not know how to exit gracefully while protecting their
personal and financial interests. The draft constitution is
the only solution they trust, and they are determined to
proceed with their roadmap without compromising on key
provisions that maintain the military's grip on power.

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Resume the Beijing Talks
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4. (C) Zaw Naing advocated the U.S. resume face-to-face
dialogue with the regime. While the process may be slow and
frustrating, he claimed it would offer an opportunity for the
high-level Burmese officials to hear U.S. positions explained
in person, rather than relying on the anti-regime exile press
as the main source of information on U.S. Burma policy. Zaw
Naing noted that Than Shwe confidant and Minister of Culture
Khin Aung Myint had participated in the Beijing talks last
June. The Minister of Culture was the most direct channel
the U.S. had to Than Shwe, he believed, and the U.S. could
use the opportunity to advocate democratic reform through the
minister.

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Don't Count on a Coup
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5. (C) Asked about the cohesiveness of the senior generals,
Zaw Naing asserted that they would stick together. The U.S.
should not count on a coup to overthrow Than Shwe any time
soon, Zaw Naing added; the military is the only game in town.
Officers previously caught plotting coups were severely
dealt with, as were their families. The officer corps has
internalized this message, Zaw Naing concluded. He continued

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that not all officers at the top are stupid or bad. Zaw
Naing had just returned from a meeting in Bago Division with
Southern Commander Major General Ko Ko, whom he praised as
intelligent, sophisticated, honest, patient, and well-aware
of Burma's economic backwardness. Ko Ko is close to Than
Shwe's wife, Kyaing Kyaing, Zaw Naing shared.

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Some Will Vote "Yes"
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6. (C) Regarding the thinking of Burma's business community
on the upcoming constitutional referendum, Zaw Naing
elaborated that his conversations with professional
colleagues led him to conclude that many would vote "yes"
during the upcoming referendum. Many Burmese believe that an
imperfect constitution is better than the status quo. They
believe that a rejection of the constitution would return the
country to a long period of re-drafting and there would be no
opportunity to move forward with elections or economic
reform, Zaw Naing explained. Additionally, the
pro-democracy movement had not succeeded in making a case
that they were a viable alternative to the regime, Zaw Naing
claimed. Many Burmese, including the ethnic nationalities,
wondered if the opposition ws competent to manage a chaotic
transition.

7 (C) Comment: We have heard from many that Than Shwe is
tired and wants to step aside, but fears for his family's
financial future. We will not be able to persuade him
directly, or through close advisors, to step aside unless we
are willing to offer him guaranteed protection. He fears
democracy because he fears retribution. End comment.
VILLAROSA