BURMA: 88 GENERATION MOBILIZES FOR THE REFERENDUM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 000144

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SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO
PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: 88 GENERATION MOBILIZES FOR THE REFERENDUM

REF: RANGOON 134

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Classified By: P/E Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) The 88 Generation Students (88GS) are mobilizing
pro-democracy activists throughout Burma for a "vote no"
campaign in the regime's upcoming constitutional referendum.
During a recent trip to five of Burma's seven divisions, 88
Generation leaders met with NLD members, monks, and political
activists to enlist their help in a nationwide educational
campaign. Financing remains the pro-democracy activists'
biggest obstacle, as the regime has successfully blocked its
access to funds from the exile and border organizations that
financed the opposition before the protests last September.
According to a local contact, the constitution drafting was
completed abruptly last Tuesday at the order of Senior
General Than Shwe. The Senior General has not defined the
procedures for the referendum, and the bureaucracy is too
afraid to proceed without his instructions. End summary.

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Vote No!
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2. (C) 88 Generation leader Toe Kyaw Hlaing told pol/econ
chief the organization is vigorously preparing a "vote no"
campaign for the regime's May referendum on the new
constitution. Toe Kyaw Hlaing recounted that, after the
regime announced the referendum, there was heated debate
among the various pro-democracy opposition groups, including
ASSK's NLD party, on whether or not to boycott the
referendum. Toe Kyaw Hlaing said most members of the
pro-democracy opposition decided to participate in the
referendum to try to defeat public approval of the regime's
manipulated constitution.


3. (C) Toe Kyaw Hlaing said that different groups will be
announcing their opposition to the new constitution soon and
then beginning their campaigns to educate the public.
Controversy still remains over when and how to do so, as the
regime continues to arrest members of the pro-democracy
opposition. Toe Kyaw Hlaing said that 88 Generation has
already begun their preparations for their "vote no"
campaign, and will campaign most aggressively during the
Water Festival holiday in mid-April. Water Festival in Burma
is chaotic, with large crowds of people gathering in the
streets throughout the day. The opposition anticipates that
authorities will be tied up maintaining order, and that the
crowds will make it harder for the authorities to track
activists' movements. 88 Generation has designed a graphic
for several posters it intends to distribute throughout the
country, consisting of the word "NO" in large capital letters
with a picture of Senior General Than Shwe in the middle of
the O. Toe Kyaw Hlaing plans to distribute the posters
throughout the country with the help of sympathetic book
sellers, who will distribute the posters by hiding them in
their weekly shipments of books from Rangoon.

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Mobilizing Their Networks
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4. (S) Embassy Rangoon helped fund Toe Kyaw Hlaing's recent
travel to four divisions in Burma to meet and coordinate with
pro-democracy activists from various factions. Toe Kyaw
Hlaing also dispatched another 88GS leader to meet with
pro-democracy activists in a fifth division. During his
travels, Toe Kyaw Hlaing met with NLD members, 88 Generation
Students activists, local monks, and politically-active
university students. Conversations centered on how to
counter the regime's constitution, how to produce new
recruits for the pro-democracy movement, and how to
successfully target more university-educated youth to help
spread their message throughout Burma.


5. (C) To help educate villagers outside of Burma's main
cities about their "vote no" campaign, 88 Generation will
send university-educated activists back to their home

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villages, where they are highly respected for their degrees,
to explain the implications of a "yes" vote on the
constitution. The activists will emphasize that the regime's
constitution will not free Burma from military rule, but
rather entrench it, given the stipulations in the proposed
constitution that reserve twenty-five percent of Parliament's
seats for the military, define the military's role to
"safeguard the constitution," and require Burma's future
presidents to have prior service in the military. The former
president of the Mandalay University Students' Union, Aung
Win, will take the lead in organizing the "vote no" campaign
in Mandalay. Famous comedian and political activist Zarganar
is preparing an educational VCD for the activists to also use
in their campaign.

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An Encore from the Monks?
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6. (C) 88 Generation will also enlist the help of village
monks to spread the word to patrons of their monasteries.
According to Toe Kyaw Hlaing, Rangoon's more
politically-oriented monasteries are already assisting him to
prepare for the campaign. Sympathetic local abbots have
agreed to host activists from upper Burma who will visit
Rangoon to meet with 88 Generation and receive internet
training 88 Generation will host at local, "safe" internet
cafes. On his recent trip, Toe Kyaw Hlaing visited several
monasteries in Pakkoku. It was Pakkoku's monks who began
last September's demonstrations; they assured Toe Kyaw Hlaing
they were ready to do anything required to assist the
pro-democracy opposition with their new campaign against the
regime's constitution.


7. (C) Toe Kyaw Hlaing noted to us that the farther from
Rangoon he traveled, the less informed and effective the
NLD's members appeared to be. He doubted their ability to
successfully organize an effective campaign against the
constitution, but was still eager to partner with the party
to promote as much unity among the opposition as possible for
the upcoming vote.

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Desperate for Financing
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8. (C) Toe Kyaw Hlaing noted that the supreme obstacle the
opposition now faces is financing for their campaign and
activities. The border has been severely tightened, and the
activists have received neither financing nor equipment from
the outside groups since September. The situation is getting
desperate, he emphasized; 88 Generation's funding channels
from AAPP and NED have completely dried up. A recent plea
from Toe Kyaw Hlaing to AAPP for new cell phones for the
organizers had gone unanswered, he claimed.


9. (C) Toe Kyaw Hlaing lamented that with the final version
of the constitution yet to be released to the public, and
with so little time remaining before May, it will be very
difficult for the regime to conduct the referendum freely and
fairly. Generation Wave, a newly formed group of young
political activists based around Burma's popular hip-hop
artists, released a statement yesterday calling for the
regime to release ASSK and all political prisoners; to allow
free speech and organizing before the referendum; to allow
international observers; to create a fair voting system; and
to create a referendum commission of "trustworthy,
accountable persons."

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Paralyzed with Fear
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10. (C) A very reliable local contact told us today that
Burmese MFA Director General Paw Lwin Sein told him that the
referendum would be done by "the ballot box", and not by a
GOB-managed mass rally. The DG claimed the final draft of
the constitution would be released to the public one month

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before the referendum. Paw Lwin Sein elaborated that the
constitution drafting was finished abruptly on Tuesday,
February 19, at the order of Senior General Than Shwe, but
that nobody had been informed of how to proceed with the
referendum. No one dared to take the initiative to propose
to Than Shwe how the referendum should be conducted, in case
he became angry with them for proposing something other than
his vision. According to the DG, everyone in government is
paralyzed and waiting for Than Shwe to give them further
instructions.

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Comment
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11. (C) 88 Generation has long anticipated a referendum on
the regime's constitution and appears to be mobilizing the
networks they put into place over the past eighteen months.
They are way ahead of the NLD, who affirmed to us again today
that they plan to proceed with a "vote no" campaign too
(Reftel),but are still working on the specifics of their
plan, which they will then need to run past Aung San Suu Kyi
for her approval. Embassy Rangoon has been assisting leaders
of 88 Generation Students for the past year with an Embassy
small grant. Now that exile groups are no longer able to
channel money to these opposition groups, we hope to increase
our financial assistance to them so that they may proceed
with their campaigns to educate the public about the
referendum. Now that leaders of the opposition have decided
to participate in the referendum to promote a public vote of
protest, it is more imperative than ever that UN Special
Envoy Gambari emphasize to Than Shwe during his March visit
to Burma that the referendum be free and fair, and that the
UN Security Council will take note if it is not. End
comment.






VILLAROSA