BURMA: MANY KAREN SEE ONLY A ROADMAP TO RUIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000139

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP AND IO; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: MANY KAREN SEE ONLY A ROADMAP TO RUIN

REF: A. CHIANG MAI 27

B. CHIANG MAI 29

Classified By: Pol Officer Sean O'Neill for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) Summary. Ethnic Karen and former National Convention
delegate Simon Tha told us that he and nearly all of his
fellow National Convention delegates regarded the regime's
proposed constitutional referendum as a sham. He expected
Than Shwe would continue to ignore concerns about the process
and proceed with his plan without compromise. Despite this,
he did not believe there would be any broad-based, organized
opposition to the referendum. Many ethnic groups, including
the Karen, are still mistrustful of the NLD and unlikely to
cooperate with them. People are upset, he said, but still
too afraid and divided to effectively oppose the Than Shwe
regime.


2. (C) Simon Tha cited evidence suggesting that the
Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) may have assassinated
KNU Secretary General Mahn Sha. He also relayed rumors that
another KNU official could have been involved and passed
along speculation that the regime was to blame. In the end,
however, he acknowledged that he had still not seen any
evidence to establish who was responsible or why. End
Summary.

ROADMAP TO RUIN
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3. (C) On February 20, Dr Simon Tha told Poloff he regarded
the regime's recently-announced referendum as a complete
sham. The former Karen National Convention delegate said he
has stayed in touch with many of his former colleagues and
reported that nearly all of them had also lost faith in the
roadmap. In particular, Simon Tha said Karen ethnic leaders
regarded the regime's plan as a "false union" in which a
Burman majority would rule over the country's minorities from
Nay Pyi Taw or Rangoon. Only the regime's cronies and those
in pro-government militias such as USDA and Swan Arr Shin
still support Than Shwe's plans, he said. In spite of these
mounting concerns over the roadmap, even among former
National Convention participants, Simon Tha expected Than
Shwe to continue pursuing his plans "at gunpoint if
necessary."


4. (C) While people were upset at the lack of genuine
democratic progress, Simon Tha had not heard of any plans to
organize a broad-based opposition to the referendum. Civil
society is angry, but still too afraid to speak up. "The
fish that opens its mouth gets caught," he added. While he
acknowledged that some opposition and ethnic groups,
including 88 Generation Students and the Karen National Union
(KNU),have spoken out against the referendum, he doubted
they would have a significant impact or convince many others
to speak out. This fear and frustration was dangerous, he
noted. If the regime continued with its roadmap without
compromise, eventually people would reach their breaking
point. Simon Tha said he feared this could lead to violence
and bloodshed.

LINGERING MISTRUST
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5. (C) Simon Tha had not heard of any plans among the Karen
leadership to accept the NLD's invitation to come to Rangoon
for talks. Doing so would be practically impossible, he
pointed out. Additionally, he noted that Karen continued to
mistrust the NLD leadership, including Aung San Suu Kyi. He
said many in the Karen community continued to recount
stories, true or not, that ASSK's father, General Aung San,
had advocated retribution against Karen who had cooperated
with the Japanese in World War II. While the KNU leadership
remains generally supportive of the NLD's efforts, he said,
many others in the Karen community harbor deep-seated
mistrust of the Burman majority, making broad-based

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cooperation unlikely.

MAHN SHA ASSASINATION
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6. (C) Simon Tha cited evidence that implicated the DKBA in
KNU Secretary General Mahn Sha's assassination on February

14. Many people he spoke with on a recent trip to Karen
State believed that fighters from the DKBA's 999th regiment,
under the command of Major Chit Thu, carried out the attack
in Mae Sot. Simon Tha relayed that a few hours after the
assassination, witnesses reportedly saw three men abandon a
black pickup truck and cross into an area of Karen State
controlled by the 999th regiment of the DKBA. However, he
acknowledged that he had not spoken with anyone who had
actually witnessed these men cross the river and was relying
on hearsay testimony from his Karen contacts.


7. (C) Simon Tha also told us that an officer from Burmese
Military Affairs Security informed him that KNU official Nada
Mya, son of deceased KNU leader Bo Mya, telephoned an unnamed
DKBA official a few days before the assassination. Simon Tha
relayed rumors that Nada Mya was interested in pursuing
dialogue with the regime and was displeased with Mahn Sha's
unwillingness to do so. Most of the people with whom he has
spoken thought that the assassination was carried out in
retaliation for the January 29 killing of Ler Mu, a colonel
in the breakaway KNU Peace Council, but some speculated that
Nada Mya might also have played a role. Still others thought
the Burmese regime was involved, although Simon Tha
acknowledged that he had not yet seen any conclusive evidence
to establish who was responsible and why. (note: please see
reftels for additional, detailed reporting and analysis of
the assassination).

COMMENT
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8. (C) Simon Tha, once optimistic about the chances for
genuine democratic change, now expects only the worst. The
fact that his fellow former National Convention delegates
have also lost faith in the process in which they once
participated indicates the depth of mistrust of the Than Shwe
regime. That mistrust is well deserved. Than Shwe continues
to enforce his will without any room for compromise or regard
for human rights. While some have publicly stated they will
oppose the regime's planned referendum, many are justifiably
scared to speak up. In order to successfully defeat this
regime, the Burmese people must overcome their fear and
unwillingness to unite. End Comment.
VILLAROSA