BURMA: CONSTITUTION FINISHED; NLD GIRDS FOR A FIGHT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000134

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO
PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: CONSTITUTION FINISHED; NLD GIRDS FOR A FIGHT

REF: A. RANGOON 73


B. RANGOON 100

RANGOON 00000134 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: P/E Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary: The GOB announced it has completed drafting
the new constitution, but gave no information when the final
draft would be published. Foreign Minister Nyan Win
acknowledged to Singapore Foreign Minister Yeo that
stipulations in the new constitution would disqualify Aung
San Suu Kyi from running in any future elections. Her NLD
party responded that the Minister's statement was premature,
as the Burmese had not yet approved the proposed constitution
in a referendum. The NLD is planning a vote "no" campaign in
preparation for the referendum, but are prepared to accept a
"yes" vote if the referendum procedures are reasonably free
and fair. NLD spokesman Nyan Win confirmed rumors that Aung
San Suu Kyi had admonished the Uncles during their last
meeting with her for not being sufficiently courageous and
inclusive. End summary.


2. (U) On February 19, the GOB announced the Commission for
Drafting the State Constitution had completed drafting
Burma's new constitution. The article in the regime's
mouthpiece daily, The New Light of Myanmar, gave no
information regarding when the draft constitution would be
published or released to the public for examination and
discussion prior to the May referendum. Sources tell us the
proposed constitution may be published two weeks from now, if
the regime decides to publish it at all.


3. (U) Early this morning, Reuters published a report that
Burmese Foreign Minister Nyan Win recently told Singapore
Foreign Minister George Yeo that Aung Sang Suu Kyi would be
disqualified for participating in the 2010 elections because
Burma's new constitution stipulated that Myanmar citizens who
"had foreign husbands or children not citizens of Myanmar
will be disqualified, as it was in Burma's 1974 constitution."


4. (SBU) Singapore Ambassador Robert Chua told pol/econ
chief that the remarks were made during a dinner cruise with
the ASEAN foreign ministers on the first night of the ongoing
ASEAN retreat. During the cruise, Burmese FM Nyan Win
briefed the ministers on the GOB's recent announcement that a
referendum on the new constitution would be held this May,
and multi-party elections in 2010. Chua told us that, after
the briefing, the foreign ministers were skeptical about the
details (or lack thereof) of the GOB's plan to implement the
referendum. The ministers emphasized to Nyan Win that the
referendum must have "integrity of process" and international
credibility.


5. (SBU) During the briefing, Nyan Win made clear that
anyone who held a foreign passport, or whose children held a
foreign passport, would be banned from participating in the
2010 election. He did not single out ASSK, but when asked by
Singapore FM Yeo if she would be disqualified under this
provision, Nyan Win acknowledged she would.


6. (SBU) In a briefing to the press after the cruise, FM Yeo
said that such an eligibility requirement was not in keeping
with the times, and would be odd in any ASEAN country.
However, Yeo added, "this is their own country, their own
history, so what can we do about it?" Chua confirmed that
Nyan Win did not say that the NLD party would be banned from
participating in the elections, only ASSK. Chua added that
the ASEAN ministers urged the GOB to allow Gambari to visit
Burma on a continuing basis.


7. (U) NLD spokesman Nyan Win reacted to the Foreign
Minister's statement by pointing out that the assumption that
ASSK would be disqualified from participating in future
elections was premature. No election law had been announced
yet, and the referendum had not yet been held. The GOB was
assuming the Burmese people would approve their proposed
constitution.


8. (C) Asked about the NLD's plans to prepare for the

RANGOON 00000134 002.2 OF 002


referendum, Nyan Win said the NLD was preparing to mobilize
people to vote "no" through an educational campaign that
would highlight that the proposed constitution simply
prolonged and entrenched Burma's military dictatorship. The
NLD had no plans to encourage Burmese to boycott the
referendum, but would rather encourage participation. If the
procedures of the referendum were seen as reasonably free and
fair, Nyan Win emphasized, the NLD would not contest the
results, even if the majority of Burmese voted to approve the
constitution. Nyan Win reported the NLD leadership had
relayed this plan to ASSK, who had communicated her approval.


9. (C) Nyan Win continued that the NLD would likely announce
soon that they will bring a lawsuit against the GOB for
violating the 1989 election law, which stipulated that the
Parliament elected in the 1990 elections would draft the
constitution.


10. (C) When questioned about rumors that there had been
strong words exchanged between the Uncles and ASSK during
their last meeting (Ref A),Nyan Win (who was present during
the meeting) confirmed that ASSK admonished the Uncles for
being too cautious and told them that now was the time to
leave their caution behind. She also scolded the Uncles for
not working more closely with opposition groups outside of
the NLD and instructed them to reach out to the ethnic
minority groups. Nyan Win said that, even after this
meeting, the Uncles were reluctant to issue their statement
inviting the ethnic cease-fire groups to meet with them, and
had to be pushed by other members of their party to do so
(Ref B).


11. (C) Other opposition groups are also preparing for the
referendum. Today, Burma's Veteran Politicians issued an
open letter to Than Shwe requesting that the draft
constitution be circulated before the referendum; that there
be secret ballots; that UN or international observers be
allowed to monitor the vote; and that all citizens be allowed
to vote, including political prisoners. 88 Generation and
youth opposition groups are also preparing for the referendum
(septel).


12. (C) Comment: Based on the principles for the new
constitution adopted at the regime's sham constitution
drafting convention, we have long expected the regime to ban
ASSK's participation in future elections, as they did in the
1990 elections. She is also likely to be disqualified from
holding the office of president, as the new constitution is
expected to require that any future presidents must have
served in the military. We are watching closely for any
moves by the regime to disqualify ASSK's NLD party from
participating in the election, or moves to disqualify any of
the other pro-democracy groups.


13. (C) NLD spokesman Nyan Win's assertion that the NLD
would accept the results of a "yes" vote on the constitution
is significant. It signals that the NLD is preparing for the
possible approval of the proposed constitution and preparing
to compete in the 2010 parliamentary elections. However, the
Uncles' lack of leadership and strategy disagreements with
ASSK puts into question their ability to successfully steer
the party through what is bound to be a tough fight. End
comment.
VILLAROSA