Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08RANGOON120
2008-02-14 10:26:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Rangoon
Cable title:  

BURMA: ELECTIONEERING BEGINS

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM BM 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO8020
PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH RUEHTRO
DE RUEHGO #0120/01 0451026
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 141026Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY RANGOON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7191
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0910
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 4470
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 8001
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 5562
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 3515
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1342
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 000120 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS; INR/EAP; S/ES-O
PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: ELECTIONEERING BEGINS

REF: A. RANGOON 116 AND PREVIOUS


B. RANGOON 100

C. RANGOON 84

Classified By: Economic Officer Samantha A. Carl-Yoder for reasons 1.5
(b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 000120

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS; INR/EAP; S/ES-O
PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: ELECTIONEERING BEGINS

REF: A. RANGOON 116 AND PREVIOUS


B. RANGOON 100

C. RANGOON 84

Classified By: Economic Officer Samantha A. Carl-Yoder for reasons 1.5
(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. The NLD successfully commemorated General
Aung San's birthday on February 13, with an event for
children at NLD Headquarters. While ethnic groups have yet
to respond directly to the NLD about its February 6
invitation, several ethnic groups commented favorably while
noting that it would be difficult for groups to meet with NLD
officers in Rangoon. Although many groups have denounced the
regime's roadmap, the National Unity Party, a pro-regime
party, issued a statement in favor of the referendum and
proposed elections in 2010. The NUP, which will mobilize
voters to support the constitution, predicts it will win the
2010 election and then seek to end military involvement in
the government. The regime on February 13 extended NLD
Deputy Chairman U Tin Oo's house arrest for another year.
Blogger Nay Phone Latt was transferred to Insein Prison,
where Home Ministry officials continue to interrogate him
about his blogging activities. End Summary.

NLD Celebrates Aung San's Birthday
--------------


2. (C) At NLD Headquarters in Rangoon, more than 150
children and 250 parents gathered to celebrate Burmese
Children's Day, commemorating General Aung San's birthday.
According to NLD Spokesperson U Nyan Win, the regime
permitted the NLD to celebrate for six hours, entertaining
the children with stories of Aung San and Burmese history. U
Nyan Win told us that the government did not intimidate
attendees, although it did monitor the comings and goings of
parents and children.

Ethnics' Views on NLD Invite
--------------


3. (C) Although the ethnic groups have yet to respond
directly to the NLD about its February 6 statement inviting
ethnic cease-fire groups to a meeting with the NLD (Ref B),
we have gathered some initial reactions. Reverend Saboi Jum
of the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) told us that he
thought the invitation in principle was a good idea, but that

the NLD waited too long to make such a move. The NLD should
have talked to the ethnic groups in the 1990s, before the
different parties splintered, he said. Now, it may be too
difficult to coordinate with the many ethnic groups.
Additionally, he noted that it would be difficult for ethnic
groups to travel to Rangoon and meet at NLD headquarters.
The Kachin Consultative Council Assembly will meet in late
February to discuss how to respond to the NLD's offer.


4. (C) Aye Thar Aung, Joint Secretary of the Arakan League
for Democracy and MP-elect, told us that he welcomes the
NLD's statement because it showed that the NLD would take
ethnic issues into consideration. However, he also agreed
that ethnic groups would be hesitant to travel to Rangoon,
noting that they would have to obtain permission from the GOB
to meet with the NLD Central Executive Committee. Pu Chin
Sian Thang, Chairman of the Zomi National Congress and United
Nationalities Alliance (UNA) Chairperson, welcomed the
invitation by the NLD, but pointed out it was long overdue.
During a conversation with Sai Htun Aung, Rangoon Officer in
Charge for the Shan State Army (North),told us that he is
under orders to not comment on the NLD's invitation. The
Shan State Army does not yet have an official position.

Statements About the Roadmap
--------------


RANGOON 00000120 002 OF 003



5. (C) Several news article reported that the United
Nationalities League for Democracy (Liberated Areas)
(UNLD/LA) issued a statement on Union Day protesting the
regime's roadmap. We cannot confirm whether the UNLD/LA
issued such a statement and were unable to locate the
document on the UNLD/LA's website. Htaung Kho Htang,
Presidium Member of the UNLD (inside Burma) told us that the
UNLD does not support the referendum process because the
Burmese people will not be able to make comments on the draft
constitution before voting. Additionally, he pointed out
that amending the document after it is passed would be
difficult, as 75 percent of the Parliament would need to
approve an amendment. With at least 25 percent of the seats
going to the military, an amendment would never occur, he
stated.


6. (C) Pu Chin Sian Thang told us that the United
Nationalities Alliance (UNA) has not released an official
statement on the referendum. Shing Pe Ling, MP and Chairman
of the Chin National League for Democracy (which is a member
of the UNA) expressed his personal views about the referendum
to the press. Pu Chin Sian Thang emphasized that these views
may not reflect the overall position of the UNA.

Pro-Regime Party Supports Roadmap
--------------


7. (C) Not all groups are against the government's roadmap,
U Khin Maung Gyi, Joint General Secretary of Burma's
pro-government National Unity Party (NUP),told us. The NUP
issued a statement on February 11 in favor of the referendum
and proposed democratic elections. U Khin Maung Gyi
predicted that the Burmese, tired of living in a country
without a constitution, will vote in favor of the
constitution. Over the next few months, the NUP will try to
mobilize the people and encourage them to vote in favor of
the constitution. Organizers from all over the country will
work to register as many voters as possible, he said, but
noted that officials will not be able to access areas under
"illegal" control. He did not expect that the process would
allow any voter input on the draft constitution. That step,
he said, was already covered during the National Convention.


8. (C) Acknowledging that the current draft constitution has
severe drawbacks, the NUP will use its power once it is
elected in 2010 to amend the constitution, declared U Khin
Maung Gyi. For example, the NUP eventually wants 100 percent
civilian control of parliament, and will seek to eliminate
the 25 percent reserved for the military, as the constitution
currently stipulates. U Khin Maung Gyi predicted that
members of parliament will come from approximately six
national parties and several ethnic-based parties, which must
remain in the legal fold to participate. He claimed the
regime will allow the NLD to participate, provided it does
not adopt a radical campaign platform. U Khin Maung Gyi told
us he hopes the GOB releases ASSK in advance of the 2010
election if the NLD participates in the elections.

Continued Detentions and Releases
--------------


9. (C) The regime sentenced U Tin Oo, Vice Chairman of the
NLD, to another year under house arrest, where he has been
since 2003. The NLD was not surprised by the regime's
action, U Nyan Win said, noting it unlikely that the
government would release any of the pro-democracy activities
before the May referendum.


10. (C) According to opposition Lawyer U Aung Thein, NLD
journalist U Win Tin, who was arrested in 1989 and recently
underwent an operation in late January at Rangoon General
Hospital, was transferred back to Insein Prison. Blogger Nay
Phone Latt, who was arrested in early February, has been
transferred from the Ministry of Home Affairs to Insein

RANGOON 00000120 003 OF 003


Prison (Ref C). Ministry of Home Affairs officers continue
to interrogate him about his blogging activities, U Aung
Thein told us. The GOB has yet to charge Nay Phone Latt with
any crimes.


11. (C) The GOB continues to put pressure on NLD members
from Taunggot, Rakhine State. On February 12, the regime
detained NLD member Ko Chit Htway for illegally entering
Phaung Taw Oo Pagoda, which was closed to prevent Union Day
celebrations. He was released on February 13. NLD member Ko
Min Aung, who was arrested in September and given a sentence
of two and half years in jail, was moved from Thandwe Prison
to Insein Prison after several thousand people signed a
petition demanding his release, according to Ko Min Aung's
mother. The government also moved Taunggot NLD member U Khin
Hla from Thandwe Prison to Bu Thee Taung Prison in Rakhine
State.

Comment
--------------


12. (C) The National Unity Party was set up by the military
to contest the 1990 elections. It won only 10 seats (the NLD
in contrast won 392 seats despite significant restrictions
imposed on its campaign). Than Shwe has little regard for
losers, and most observers expect that his mass member
organization, USDA, will be his preferred political party in
any future election. Many people doubt that the NLD will be
able to pull off another upset because of the passivity of
the Uncles. However, should Aung San Suu Kyi and other
political prisoners be freed and allowed to campaign, then
the odds would dramatically improve.

VILLAROSA