REGIME PROMISES MAY REFERENDUM, ELECTIONS BY 2010

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000109

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS, IO, INR/EAP, S/ES-O
PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: REGIME PROMISES MAY REFERENDUM, ELECTIONS BY 2010

REF: A) RANGOON 73 B) RANGOON 100 C) RANGOON 98

Classified By: Economic Officer Samantha A. Carl-Yoder for Reasons 1.4
(b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary. The GOB on February 9 announced next steps
in its roadmap for democracy: it will finish drafting the
constitution by April and will hold a referendum on the draft
in May 2008; multi-party democratic elections will then occur
in 2010. The drafting process did not incorporate views held
by opposition parties or ethnic groups, nor does the GOB's
timeframe allow for adequate discussion on the pros and cons
of the proposed constitution. Several groups, including the
NLD and the Arakan League for Democracy, privately told us
their objections to the GOB process, but have yet to speak
out publicly. We have not yet confirmed news reports of the
88 Generation of Students' condemnation of the GOB's
announcement. The GOB remains committed to its flawed
roadmap, and will do what it can to swiftly advance the
process. Suggested press guidance is included in para 7.
End Summary.

GOB Announces Next Steps
--------------


2. (SBU) On February 9, the Burmese Government released two
official announcements detailing the next steps in the
roadmap to democracy. According to Announcement 01/2008, the
GOB-appointed Commission for the Drafting of the State
Constitution will finish writing the document by April,
allowing the GOB to advance to the fourth step of the
seven-step roadmap: a national referendum to approve the
constitution in May 2008. Additionally, Announcement 02/2008
promised multi-party democratic elections in 2010.

Opposition and Ethnic Groups Respond
--------------


3. (C) NLD Spokesperson U Nyan Win commented that with these
announcements, the GOB was getting ahead of itself, promising
to hold democratic elections in 2010 before it even knew the
results of the referendum. He opined that the GOB would
manipulate the referendum to obtain approval for the
constitution. The GOB may have to revise the 1989 elections
law to reflect the current situation and allow dissolved
parties to participate, he noted. Despite recent news
reports, we have not yet confirmed whether the 88 Generation
Students released a public statement on February 10
condemning the GOB's progress toward democracy and
criticizing the draft constitution as not representing the
people.


4. (C) Aye Thar Aung, Joint Secretary of the Arakan League
for Democracy, told us that the Arakan League for Democracy
would oppose the constitution because of the heavy military
influence in drafting the document and because it would be
too difficult to amend in the future. Other ethnic groups,
such as the New Mon State Party, Karen National Union,
Karreni National Progressive Party, and the Kachin
Independence Organization, have previously told us of their
objections to the "one-sided" constitution because their
views were not included in the final document. Aye Thar Aung
noted that the GOB has already started to recruit support for
the draft constitution in Rakhine State and possibly in
Rangoon. He questioned whether ethnic parties, which were
dissolved after the 1990 elections, would be able to
participate in the 2010 elections. The Government, he
concluded, would face hardship in the future if they
continued with its roadmap because it has yet to address two
fundamental issues: the continuing deterioration of the
economy and the lack of reconciliation between the GOB and
the opposition and ethnic political groups.


5. (C) Several local reporters had varying views of the

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GOB's announcement, with some predicting the public would
vote overwhelmingly to support the roadmap. Other
journalists noted that the recent statements by Aung San Suu
Kyi and other opposition movements may cause the Burmese
people to think twice about supporting the referendum (Refs A
and B). However, they opined that if the people voted down
the referendum, the GOB could use it to its advantage as an
indication that the Burmese do not want a transition to
democracy.

What This Means
--------------


6. (C) This is the first time the GOB has provided an
actual timeframe for its roadmap to democracy. However,
without additional specifics as to how the process will
proceed, we cannot consider this announcement to be a
significant advance. If the GOB finalizes the constitution
in April, holding a referendum in May leaves little time (a
few weeks at most) for debate and discussion about the
proposed constitution. Previously, sources connected to the
regime indicated that the regime would conclude drafting the
constitution by April, with a referendum to follow after the
rainy season in late 2008. During the February 9 press
conference, Minister of Information Kyaw Sann refused to
answer questions about the referendum process, and many
Embassy contacts question how free and fair the process will
be. We note that arrests continue of peaceful pro-democracy
supporters. The few that have been released were required to
sign pledges against criticizing the roadmap. We believe the
timing of the announcements to be an effort by the regime to
claim progress implementing its roadmap and present its
proposed constitution to the international community as a
fait accompli.

Draft Press Guidance
--------------


7. (SBU) Key points for Press Guidance:

--We are skeptical that the Burmese regime's announcements of
a constitutional referendum in May 2008 and multi-party
democratic elections in 2010 should be considered a
significant advance.

--Despite appeals by Aung San Suu Kyi, ethnic leaders, and
the international community, the regime has taken no steps to
make the drafting process more inclusive. Instead, it relied
on a hand-picked committee primarily made up of senior regime
officials.

--In order for the Burmese people to make an informed choice
about the new constitution, there would need to be a free and
fair debate of the pros and cons. Instead, the regime
continues to arrest peaceful dissenters and has made it a
crime to criticize the regime's roadmap.

--The regime has offered no indication of how the referendum
would proceed. As basic minimums, we would expect to see
political prisoners released and allowed to participate in a
free and fair public debate over the merits of the draft
constitution. This would have to be followed by a secret
ballot that meets international standards.

End Suggested Press Guidance.
VILLAROSA