WESTERN SAHARA: BRINKSMANSHIP OVER CIVILIAN MARCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RABAT 000071

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/MAG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2018
TAGS: PHUM PREL PBTS WI MO
SUBJECT: WESTERN SAHARA: BRINKSMANSHIP OVER CIVILIAN MARCH
TO THE BERM

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Summary
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1. (C) On January 16, a pro-Moroccan NGO announced plans to
lead civilians on a march to Tifarity, the "capital" of the
trans-berm buffer zone, on January 27. On January 23, the
same NGO announced a postponement for logistical reasons.
The Government of Morocco (GOM) has encouraged the march but,
according to the UN, has not formally granted permission due
to strong, though low profile, POLISARIO reaction. Should
the march take place, it has the potential to incite violence
and seriously harm the Western Sahara peace process. End
summary.

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A March to Reaffirm Sovereignty...
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2. (U) The Association for a Moroccan Sahara (ASM),a
nominally independent but somewhat murky pro-Morocco NGO
plans to organize a march to Tifarity, a former town and
current outpost in the desert southeast of the Western Sahara
berm on January 27. ASM said that it was organizing the
event to protest the POLISARIO's holding of its December
Congress in the same town, which lies in disputed territory.
ASM said it was marching to Tifarity to "re-affirm Moroccan
sovereignty" and to ensure the free flow of people and
materiel within "Moroccan territory." To reach Tifarity, the
marchers would have had to cross the "berm" that divides the
Moroccan-held zone from the POLISARIO side and possibly
traverse minefields and pass armed opposing troops.


3. (U) ASM President Reda Taoujini told a press conference
on January 16 that some 900 people would participate in the
march from Smara, on the Moroccan side, to Tifarity. He said
that the Moroccan military would provide logistical and
medical support, assure security and "clear mines" in advance
of the party. When asked about the proposed event, Minister
of Communications Khalid Naciri said on January 17 that
Morocco "guaranteed free speech and circulation" throughout
its territory. He further added that the POLISARIO had
violated Moroccan sovereignty by holding its conference in
Tifarity. On January 23, ASM announced was postponing the
march for "logistical reasons." It claimed that so many
people wanted to join the march (over 2,000 including 50
domestic and international journalists) that they had pause
to enhance their supply line. At the time the ASM criticized
another NGO, which planned to organize another march.

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...Over a Desolate Town
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4. (U) The GOM has made clear its intense displeasure over
the high profile POLISARIO Congress in Tifarity in December
2007, as well as with the Congress's declaration that the
POLISARIO would be establishing a greater presence in the
buffer zone east of the berm. The Front subsequently
declared it would be moving to actually develop the
"Liberated Territories," which include Tifarity. The GOM
holds that the territory is part of Morocco and no POLISARIO
activity should be permitted.


5. (C) The object of this political brinksmanship is a
desolate backwater. Before the 1991 cease-fire, the Moroccan
air Force bombed Tifarity. The shell of a bombed-out
building remains, surrounded by a small cluster of
structures, including a hospital built with aid from several
Spanish provincial governments. The hospital is empty,
however, and there is no resident civilian population in
Tifarity; just soldiers, POLISARIO officials, a MINURSO base
and a few international deminers. With the exception of a
some nomads based in refugee camps in Algeria, most of
trans-berm buffer zone is equally sparsely inhabited. While
the GOM has repeatedly raised its concern about buffer zone
activities, its real worry is the consistent and sometimes
aggressive POLISARIO threats to resume armed activity.

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Political Maneuvering

RABAT 00000071 002 OF 002


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6. (C) The heat of the issue has been raised by the
POLISARIO response to the threatened march. Various
POLISARIO speakers have threatened to confront, detain or
attack the marchers. One threatened a bloodbath if the march
went ahead; another called it a causus belli. In
communications with the Embassy (copied to desk) MINURSO
mission head SRSG Julian Harston has expressed his concern
about the march. Publicly he is hewing to the official UN
position that MINURSO is in place only to observe and is only
concerned with military activities. Privately, however, he
indicated he would be urging the GOM to restrain the marchers
from crossing the berm. So far, Moroccan military officials
in the Sahara have told them they have not been officially
informed, and no permission has been granted yet to cross the
berm.


7. (C) In early January, 2007, ASM publicly announced a
similar march, but canceled after the Embassy suggested that
it might jeopardize the beginnings of what would become the
Manhasset process. The ASM publicly cited the Embassy's
intervention as the reason it called off the march. Like
last year, we have conveyed concern to MFA officials, citing
the potential disruption to the carefully launched
UN-sponsored peace process and the Moroccan initiative. The
Moroccan response has been "get the POLISARIO to stop making
threats and stay out of our territory." Unlike last year, we
have not contacted and do not intend to engage directly with
ASM. MINURSO's position is that it is in place to observe
the military cease fire and has no mandate to interfere in
civilian activities such as the march.

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Comment
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8. (C) In theory, the ASM could meet POLISARIO civilian
delegations in the buffer zone for track-two discussions, but
the confrontational posture of both sides would appear to
preclude that prospect. Taken together, POLISARIO threats to
"occupy" the buffer zone and to renew armed conflict could
well be enough grounds for the GOM to want to make the
POLISARIO uncomfortable. Unlike last year, the GOM validated
the ASM's march threat with the statement that Moroccans have
the right to go anywhere in the country. ASM has built upon
this to demand protection from Moroccan security forces
during the march. Despite its frequent criticism of the
government and the CORCAS, many here suspect the ASM has ties
to at least part of Morocco's security establishment.


9. (C) Comment continued: Despite the temptation to use the
ASM as a proxy to "poke the other side in the eye," as one
foreign diplomat put it, the risk levels are high. If the
POLISARIO shoots at the marchers, the Royal Moroccan Armed
Forces, even if they stay behind the berm, could feel forced
to respond, escalating the conflict. It is possible that,
with the postponement, the ASM has already been instructed to
pull bank from the rhetorical brink. Such a delay preceded
the cancellation of the march last year. We and others now
have more time to observe and engage-and get through the next
set of contacts, including Van Walsum's long delayed
consultations in the region. End Comment.



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Riley