ECUADOR HOSTING ANDEAN PRESIDENTIAL MEETING; URIBE

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000956

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2018
TAGS: ETRD PREL EC CO
SUBJECT: ECUADOR HOSTING ANDEAN PRESIDENTIAL MEETING; URIBE
TO ATTEND

REF: A. QUITO 787

B. QUITO 783 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Classified by DCM Andrew Chritton.
Reason: 1.4 b and d
.


1. (C) Summary. Ecuador will host a meeting of Andean
Community presidents on October 14 to try to forge a common
Andean position on negotiating a free trade agreement with
the European Union (EU). However, if Bolivia blocks
consensus (which Ecuador expects),Ecuador will join Colombia
and Peru in negotiating bilateral agreements with the EU.
Colombian President Uribe will attend the meeting, which may
lay the groundwork for restoring diplomatic relations. End
summary.


2. (C) On September 30, Under Secretary for Commercial
Affairs Mentor Villagomez informed EconCouns that Ecuador, as
president of the Andean Community (CAN),will host a meeting
of CAN presidents on October 14 in Guayuaquil. The objective
is to find a way forward for the CAN to negotiate a free
trade agreement with the European Union. According to
Villagomez, Ecuador would like to keep the CAN negotiating as
a bloc, but he expects that that will be difficult, given
Bolivian intransigence (reftel a). He said that even if
Bolivia agrees to go forward at the upcoming meeting, the
other parties would be concerned that Bolivia might try to
block discussions further down the road.

Bilateral Agreements Most Likely Option
--------------


3. (C) Villagomez said that the most likely outcome is that
the CAN members will go forward with bilateral agreements
with the EU. Colombia and Peru are determined to negotiate
with the EU. Ecuador has decided that it will also pursue a
free trade agreement. (Note: in August, the GOE had been
deliberating whether it would join Colombia and Peru (reftel
a),and evidently President Correa decided in favor of the
free trade bloc in his government.) Villagomez was focused
on the commercial pillar of an EU agreement, and did not
discuss how the political and cooperation pillars would be
incorporated into this approach.


4. (C) Villagomez said that if the CAN members pursue
bilateral agreements, the arrangement would be similar to
that used by the CAN members in negotiating free trade
agreements with the United States. Each country would
negotiate a separate agreement, but the negotiations would
take place simultaneously so the CAN members could coordinate
positions to the extent possible. However, with separate
agreements the members would not need consensus on sensitive
issues. Villagomez said that with this approach, Bolivia
could join in the negotiations if it wanted, but could not
block the others.


5. (C) Villagomez allowed that the Andean countries will
need agreement from the EU for such an approach. He said
that the European Commission has notionally agreed, but needs
to determine how it can do so within its existing mandate
(which calls for negotiations between blocs),without seeking
new guidance from the EU Council, "which could take six
months."

First Uribe Visit to Ecuador in 2008
--------------


6. (C) Villagomez said that President Uribe of Colombia
readily accepted the invitation to the meeting, which will be
his first visit to Ecuador following the March 1 incursion
into Ecuador that led Ecuador to break diplomatic relations
(reftel b). Villagomez said that the visit could establish
the ground work for restoring diplomatic relations.

Ecuador on ATPA Suspension for Bolivia
--------------


7. (C) Villagomez added that he had recently drafted a short
statement for possible use by the President's office on the
U.S. announcement that it would suspend Andean Trade
Preferences Act (ATPA) benefits for Bolivia. He said that
the thrust of the statement is that Ecuador, as president of
the CAN, supports solidarity of the CAN as a whole and argues
that ATPA benefits should be available for all the CAN
members. (Note: he did not specify when this statement
would be issued or whether it would be part of a larger
document.)
Comment
--------------


8. (C) On the trade side, Ecuador and President Correa first
want to position themselves as a broker between Colombia and
Peru on one side, and Bolivia on the other. However, Ecuador
appears ready to move pretty quickly from that stance,
distance itself from Bolivia, and side with Colombia and Peru
to pursue a free trade agreement with the EU, recognizing
that that would be in Ecuador's best interest. In regard to
Ecuador looking to normalize relations with Colombia and
using the upcoming regional meeting as a convenient forum to
initiate the process, it is not clear how the two countries
would get around stumbling blocks like Ecuador's demand for
compensation for border incidents. We will follow up with
other officials who have been more closely involved in
Ecuador-Colombia discussions to see if they share
Villagomez's optimism.
HODGES