ECUADOR: STRONG MAJORITY APPROVES NEW CONSTITUTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000942

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: ECUADOR: STRONG MAJORITY APPROVES NEW CONSTITUTION

REF: A. QUITO 833

B. QUITO 682

C. QUITO 582

D. QUITO 223

E. QUITO 489

F. QUITO 692

Classified By: Ambassador Heather Hodges for Reasons 1.4 (b&d)


1. (C) Summary: Preliminary results show that almost 64% of
Ecuadorians voted in favor of the new constitution in the
September 28 referendum, a solid win for President Correa.
Although there was criticism of fairness of the campaign (Ref
A),the voting process was largely peaceful and free of
fraud, and reflects the will of the Ecuadorian electorate.
After official results are proclaimed October 14,
institutional changes and general elections will follow. The
new constitution's impact depends in large part on
implementation and interpretation. (End Summary)

ELECTION RESULTS TO DATE


2. (SBU) With almost 95% of the votes counted, the Supreme
Electoral Tribunal (TSE) reported 63.97% support for the yes
vote, 28.10% for the no vote, 0.72% blank votes, and 7.21%
null votes. The ballots cast in the overseas electoral areas
are expected to be counted by the end of this week. The
proclamation of official results is scheduled for October 14,
thus allowing time to resolve any appeals.


3. (SBU) According to the TSE's preliminary results, the yes
vote obtained over 50% of the vote in all provinces except
for Napo and Orellana. The two are located in the Amazonian
region, the Patriotic Society Party's stronghold. Napo is
likely to be the only province where the "no" vote actually
wins, with 55%. In Guayas province, where Ecuador's largest
city of Guayaquil is located and its mayor Jaime Nebot
conducted a powerful campaign for the no vote, the TSE
preliminary results show the yes vote at 50.85%. In the city
of Guayaquil, the yes vote was approximately 46%.

ELECTION DAY LARGELY PROBLEM-FREE


4. (SBU) The voting process was peaceful, and very few
irregularities were reported. Enrique Correa, the OAS
electoral observation mission chief, stated during election
day, "Voting has been normal as it has been in other
electoral processes that we observed; people vote massively
with tranquility...we have not observed any setbacks and we
expect that this will continue this way throughout the day."
The official OAS report on the election will be released
September 30.


5. (SBU) NGO Citizen Participation's observers and Embassy
Quito and ConGen Guayaquil officers who were part of the OAS
observation mission cited delays in opening polling stations
because poll workers did not show up, as well as lack of
training of poll workers. Citizen Participation reported
that less than 40% of polling stations in their sample opened
at the scheduled time. In Manabi province, five people were
reportedly detained for having tried to vote with someone
else,s identification card. Several individuals were
detained throughout the country for having violated the law
prohibiting purchase and consumption of alcohol during the
elections. There were charges that a call center operated
from abroad made phone calls encouraging Ecuadorians to
support the no vote after the campaign period was over.

CORREA'S COMMENTS ON RESULTS


6. (SBU) A clearly elated President Correa spent much of the
evening September 28 in press conferences, at times
conciliatory toward the opposition and at other times feisty
about the extent of the referendum's win. Correa said the
new constitution implied the defeat of the old political and
economic structures, fulfilled the mandate the Ecuadorian
people gave him in November 2006, and was a starting point
for the citizens' revolution. He argued that the Ecuadorian
people were not divided, citing the extent of support for the
new constitution. Correa said he was open to dialogue with
Guayaquil's Mayor Nebot.

SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE IN NEW CONSTITUTION


7. (C) In 444 articles, the new constitution details a number
of citizens' rights guaranteeing respect for human rights,
meeting basic needs, and improving opportunities. It
contains provisions that favor vulnerable groups such as
women, children, youngsters, and minorities. Citizen
participation is to be enhanced, including creation of a new
Transparency and Social Control branch of government. Other
changes include allowing immediate reelection of the
president, ending the autonomy of the central bank and
banking superintendency, prohibiting foreign military bases,
providing the presidency with increased powers, and increased
regulation of certain industries such as the media and
banking sector. (See Refs B-E)


8. (C) Critics argue that the constitution was custom-made to
favor the Proud and Sovereign Fatherland (PAIS) government
and that its application is unrealistic due to the massive
expenditures that it would require. In their view, the
provisions contained in the new constitution, in combination
with the transition rules written by the PAIS-dominated
Constituent Assembly, will strengthen the Correa
administration's already extensive power.


9. (C) Given the new constitution's sometimes ambiguous or
contradictory language and the need for government action to
fulfill the many utopian rights it establishes, the impact of
the constitution will depend in large part on how the
Executive chooses to prioritize and implement it and how the
new Constitutional Court interprets it. Rigorous
implementation of all constitutional provisions is unlikely.

LOOKING AHEAD


10. (SBU) Once official referendum results are proclaimed on
October 14 and the new constitution is published in the
Official Registry, the constitution will enter into force.
At the same time, the Transition Regime approved by the
Constituent Assembly will go in to effect. The Transition
Regime provides instructions for the institutional transition
from the 1998 constitution to the 2008 constitution,
including an interim legislature whose composition will be
decided by Constituent Assembly members in a meeting five
days after the official proclamation of results. (See Ref F
for more information on the Transition Regime.)


11. (SBU) The Transition Regime calls for general elections
at all levels of government, including the President, members
of the National Assembly, and local officials. Thirty days
after the new electoral authority is established under the
new constitution, elections must be convoked. The most
likely timing appears to be the end of January or sometime in
February.

COMMENT


12. (SBU) Correa clearly sees the results as strengthening
his mandate, and with good reason. Not all those who voted
"yes" necessarily support the Correa government (notably the
indigenous),but the large majority do. The political focus
here post-referendum is shifting to positioning candidates
for the early 2009 general elections. That means Correa and
the country will remain in campaign mode for some time to
come.
HODGES