ASSEMBLY PICKS UP PACE AS DIVISIONS WITHIN PAIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000582

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2018
TAGS: PGOV EC
SUBJECT: ASSEMBLY PICKS UP PACE AS DIVISIONS WITHIN PAIS
WIDEN

REF: QUITO 567

Classified By: DCM Jefferson Brown for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (SBU) Summary: The new President of the assembly,
Fernando Cordero, appears determined to meet the July 26
deadline mandated by the Constituent Assembly statute. From
June 24-26 the assembly approved a record 37 articles.
Opposition members remain disgruntled because they consider
Cordero,s style to be undemocratic (ref A). The electoral
calendar remains unclear but the campaign for the referendum
has effectively already started. (End of summary).

THE NEW LEADERSHIP AND THE OPPOSITION'S DISCONTENT
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2. (U) Following the resignation of Alberto Acosta (Proud and
Sovereign Fatherland Movement or PAIS) as President of the
Assembly on June 23 (ref A),Fernando Cordero (PAIS) was
elected president of the assembly on June 25. His election
was widely criticized by opposition members who argued that
he would have the assembly approve articles in bulk with
little discussion in order to meet the July 26 deadline.


3. (U) Aminta Buenano (PAIS),was elected First Vice
President with Leonardo Viteri (Social Christian Party - PSC)
finishing second. The rules for the internal governing of the
assembly do not include specific language on filling
permanent vice presidential vacancies. Article 9 of the
Assembly statute says that the second vice presidency is to
be assigned to the runner up in the election for first vice
president. The opposition interpreted the statute to mean
that Viteri had been elected to the second vice presidency.
However, Assembly President Cordero called for a vote on the
second vice president, which was won by Cesar Rodriguez
(PAIS). Cordero's decision infuriated opposition members, who
denounced Cordero. On June 27, the assembly's communications
office issued a highly partisan message criticizing the
opposition, noting that "the constituent assembly has once
again been a victim of the old political parties."


4. (U) On June 25, Cordero met with the leaders of all
parties represented in the Assembly to discuss the remaining
Assembly schedule. The leaders of PSP, PSC, and PRIAN -- the
three largest opposition blocs -- chose not to attend.
Leaders who did attend agreed to discuss different proposals
with the members of their political parties in the plenary.


5. (U) Opposition members resorted to symbolic measures to
express their discontent with the new PAIS leadership. On
June 26, some opposition assembly members wore black attire
to honor "the death of democracy." On June 27, assembly
members Rafael Estevez (ex Patriotic Society Party - PSP) and
Andres Pavon (Institutional Renewal Action Party - PRIAN)
sewed several stitches with a needle across their lips,
drawing blood, to symbolize that the new plenary leadership
violated their right to speech.

PROGRESS ON THE CONSTITUTION
--------------


6. (U) In three days (June 24-26),the assembly approved 37
articles, upping the total approved thus far from 57 to 94 .
As of June 29, there were 71 articles ready for final vote,
128 ready for a second plenary debate, and 171 which have not
reached the first plenary debate. Three committees are still
working on the first drafts of 60 articles.


7. (U) On June 24, the plenary approved 24 articles on social
organization and participation in democracy, one on civil
rights, one on due process and general justice matters, and
seven on political rights. On June 26, 4 articles on the
property regime were approved. Highlights included:

--on social organization and participation: assembly members
introduced the notion of the "empty chair", which provides a
position within local governments for a non-voting citizen's
representative citizenry to express options and advocate on
behalf of the local population. Article six creates citizen
participation at all levels of government through
observatories, oversight committees, popular councils, etc.
This article establishes the possibility of removing the
president by popular recall. All elected office-holders may
only be reelected once. The use of state resources and
facilities during electoral campaign was prohibited, "as well
as governmental publicity at all levels." A transitory
disposition determined that all political parties and
movements must re-register. Changes to the constitution can

be made by popular referendum. Eight percent of all

registered voters must petition to put such a referendum
before the general electorate.

--on civil and social rights: the text approved by the
plenary kept the wording of the 1998 constitution on the
right to life, which established the inviolability of life,
without specifically making abortion illegal. However, it
failed to state that life begins at conception, as President
Correa assured supporters in the past. In comparison with
the current constitution, new items were included, such as
the right to access to nutritious food with a priority given
to locally produced products, sexual rights for women, and
the prohibition of trafficking in persons.

--on due process and justice: the approved texts expanded the
1998 constitution, including a more detailed definition of
the right to defense, a stipulation that the corresponding
embassy must be notified about the detention of foreigners,
ordering judges to give priority to other cautionary measures
before sentencing individuals to detention, eliminating any
statute of limitations on charges of sexual exploitation,
rape, trafficking in persons and murder of children, and
establishing a system to protect and assist victims,
witnesses, and participants in the prosecutorial process.

--on political rights: optional suffrage was granted to
citizens from 16 to 18 years of age, to Ecuadorians living
abroad, to members of the Police and the Armed Forces, and to
detainees without sentence.

--on the property regime: seven types of property are
recognized and guaranteed (public, private, communal, state,
associative, cooperative, and mixed). The article on
intellectual property prohibits the appropriation of
collective knowledge and genetic resources from the country's
"biodiversity".

OTHER BUSINESS
--------------


8. (U) On June 10, the plenary passed several measures to
speed up the process of writing up the reports for second
debate and allowed for changes in the agenda up to one hour
before the plenary meeting. On June 13, the assembly
appointed Pedro Solines Chacon as the provisional
Superintendent of Companies. On June 25, the plenary passed
a resolution condemning the European Parliament's June 18
resolution on migration , calling it a "criminalizing
discriminatory and xenophobic measure."

THE CHALLENGES AHEAD
--------------


9. (SBU) The Constituent Assembly statute states that the
referendum on the new constitution has to be approved by 50
percent plus one of all votes cast, which includes annulled
and blank votes. According to the June opinion poll
conducted by Informe Confidencial, Inc. only 37% of
respondents said that they had already decided to cast a yes
vote on the constitution that is being written in
Montecristi. (Note: The Informe Constitutional poll was
taken before Acosta's resignation, but published afterwards.)



10. (U) In addition to any fallout from the Acosta
resignation, PAIS assembly members continue to disagree on
specific constitutional matters. On June 27, PAIS assembly
member Tatiana Hidrovo decided to temporarily relinquish the
presidency of the Territorial Organization Committee in order
to be able to freely support a thesis that PAIS opposed. On
June 6, PAIS assembly members Chuji and Panchana generated a
controversy in the biodiversity committee over the right to
water, on which the assembly's governing committee member
Martha Roldos (RED) had to intervene.


11. (C) President Correa remains obsessed with delivering
results quickly. The government's advertisements on
television - which broadcast the governments achievements -
are being broadcast with greater frequency. In his weekly
radio addresses Correa frequently criticizes his staff for
not producing results at the pace of the "citizen
revolution." Minister of Transportation and Public Works
Jorge Marun told embassy officers that Correa's pressure was
so intense and so public that it encouraged everyone else to
make demands to him.


12. (SBU) The Correa administration in general remains

preoccupied with surveys. In his June 17 radio address,
Correa harshly criticized the polling company Cedatos )
which often produces polling results unfavorable to the
government ) and suggested assembly members adopt new
legislation to regulate pollsters. Curiously, on June 24
Ecuador's Revenue Services closed Cedatos for 10 days.

DATE FOR GENERAL ELECTIONS STILL UNCLEAR
--------------


13. (SBU) The Supreme Electoral Tribunal's (TSE) National
Director of Training Programs, Hector Galarza, told poloff
that it would not be possible for the Supreme Electoral
Tribunal to organize the referendum before September 28.
According to Galarza, the much-awaited mandate on elections
will only establish deadlines for the referendum. In his
view, the electoral mandate will determine that the 45-day
deadline included in the statute for the constituent assembly
will be effective approximately 15 days after the approval of
the constitution in the final plenary session.


14. (C) If the constitution is approved by referendum, the
organization of general elections will be a hard and lengthy
task. All political parties would have to re-register to
participate in the general election. Under the current
legislation, that would require a major effort for parties to
obtain signatures and fill out membership cards. Gustavo
Tamariz, TSE Director of Political Organizations told poloff
that such a process could take eight months, although Correa
seems intent on holding the election as early in 2009 as
possible.


15. (U) While the referendum campaign has not yet started
officially, President Correa has repeatedly called upon
Ecuadorians to support the constitution and to support
change, and Lucio Gutierrez, leader of the PSP, has
campaigned for a no vote. Both of them received warnings
from the TSE.

COMMENT
--------------


16. (C) Though PAIS disagreements have captured media
attention in recent weeks, the shock of Acosta's resignation
and the fallout from his decision continue to frame the
discussion of the Constituent Assembly's work among the
chattering class. Both Correa and Acosta have toughened
their comments in recent days, suggesting that their
political differences may be more profound than initially
thought. The latest surveys on the constitutional referendum
suggest that the Correa administration will have to work
harder than they once expected to achieve a "yes" vote for
the constitution. It remains to be seen the extent to which
tensions within the PAIS bloc amy persist in weeks and months
ahead, and whether hastily crafted constitutional clauses
will result in ill-considered texts that the "no" vote forces
will be able to exploit.
Jewell