SCENESETTER FOR SOUTHCOM COMMANDER VISIT TO QUITO

S E C R E T QUITO 000488

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2014
TAGS: PREL MASS MOPS SNAR PTER EAID MARR OVIP EC CO
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR SOUTHCOM COMMANDER VISIT TO QUITO

REF: A. QUITO 288

B. QUITO 312

C. QUITO 433

D. QUITO 331

E. QUITO 358

F. 07 QUITO 2570

G. QUITO 330

H. 07 QUITO 953

I. 07 QUITO 2556

J. 07 QUITO 2616

Classified By: Ambassador Linda Jewell for Reasons 1.4 (b&d)


1. (C) Please accept a warm welcome on your first visit to
Ecuador on June 9-12. Your visit comes at a time of
opportunities, risks and change as Ecuador carries out
political and economic reforms through its Constituent
Assembly. It is also a time of significant change in
military leadership. While the Correa government clearly
presents some concerns and uncertainties, cooperation on
counter-narcotics and Northern Border security has in fact
been very good to date. With the fairly recent changes in
the Ministry of Defense and Joint Command and continued mixed
signal rhetoric by the Correa administration, we are still
not certain how the new leadership will choose to pursue and
define long-term security cooperation. Privately, the Defense
Minister told us that existing cooperation will continue, and
relations at the unit level remain very good. The signing of
the military exercise diplomatic note last week is a positive
sign. There is no doubt that the GOE wants to reduce
dependence on the USG, and broaden Ecuador's security
partnership with regional players such as Brazil and Chile.
But we believe that prospects remain solid for a significant
partnership role for the U.S. I am convinced that dialogue
with the MOD will maximize our prospects for continuing
constructive bilateral military cooperation to our mutual
benefit. Our objective during your visit is to demonstrate
U.S. interest in advancing relations with the Correa
government on issues of mutual interest.

Fragile Democracy, Correa's Commitment to Change
-------------- ---


2. (C) Ecuador is a fragile democracy caught in a cycle of
political instability, reflecting popular disillusionment
with the traditional power structure and weak institutions.
Inaugurated in January 2007, Rafael Correa is the first
president since the 1979 return to democracy to enjoy
sustained popularity in all regions of the country and among
a broad array of class and demographic groups. Correa won
the presidential election by successfully presenting himself
as the "change" candidate to a population frustrated by the
chaotic and corrupt governments of recent years.


3. (C) Thus far, Correa has proven adept at maintaining
public support using a combination of confrontational
tactics, pragmatic deal-making, and programs to assist the
poor. He is seeking adoption of reforms through an unbounded
Constituent Assembly, inaugurated on November 29. The
Assembly is rewriting the constitution, which would be
approved in a subsequent referendum, likely in September. It
suspended the Congress and is adopting laws that take effect
immediately. If the new constitution is approved, general
elections are likely to follow in early 2009.


4. (C) While Correa is undoubtedly sympathetic to some of
Chavez's ideas, Correa's policies reflect primarily
Ecuadorian realities and dynamics. He is a nationalist
first, and a leftist second. He chafes at Ecuador's
traditional dependency on the U.S., and his anger at our
strong support