Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08QUITO477
2008-06-02 19:32:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Quito
Cable title:  

GUTIERREZ PARTY DOWN BUT NOT OUT

Tags:  PGOV PTER ECON EC 
pdf how-to read a cable
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P 021932Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8948
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 7569
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 3038
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JUN LIMA 2617
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 3574
C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000477 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2028
TAGS: PGOV PTER ECON EC
SUBJECT: GUTIERREZ PARTY DOWN BUT NOT OUT

Classified By: DCM Jefferson Brown for reason 1.4 (D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000477

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2028
TAGS: PGOV PTER ECON EC
SUBJECT: GUTIERREZ PARTY DOWN BUT NOT OUT

Classified By: DCM Jefferson Brown for reason 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary: The Patriotic Society Party, although
discredited and diminished, has not lost the fire in its
belly or the support of an important segment of the
Ecuadorian public. Its leader, former president Lucio
Gutierrez, regained his political rights in May. The party
is strongly on the attack within the Constituent Assembly,
especially on the issue of the government's ties to the FARC.
It recently won a local election, possibly a barometer for
future gains. While still by far the underdog, the Patriotic
Society Party will likely be a key advocate for a "no" vote
in the September constitutional referendum and the most
significant, well-organized national opposition to Correa's
movement in the congressional and local elections that
follow. (End Summary)

FIGHTING ITS WAY BACK


2. (C) Given President Correa's popularity and the corrupt
image of Ecuador's traditional political parties, many judged
the old parties dead following their weak showing in the
September 2007 Constituent Assembly elections. In that race,
Correa's Proud and Sovereign Fatherland (PAIS) movement won
80 of 130 seats, while no opposition party reached even 20.
Political analyst Simon Pachano of FLACSO told us at that
time that he expected Correa would remain dominant until new
opposition parties were formed and gained strength -) a
process likely to take several years.


3. (C) The Patriotic Society Party (PSP),whose leader,
Lucio Gutierrez, was forced from the presidency by popular
protest just three years ago, might seem the least likely
party to be revived. Yet the PSP is showing signs of life
and a refusal to be marginalized from the Ecuadorian
political scene. In what may be a harbinger of renewed
strength, the PSP scored a win May 18 in a mayoral election
in the new canton of Quinsaloma in Los Rios province. The
outcome prompted Correa to call on his followers to organize
in favor of a yes vote in the constitutional referendum so
that the corrupt leader of the bankers and the parties of the
past (referring to Gutierrez) could not divide Ecuador.

FARC TIES AND WEAK ECONOMY THE PRONGS OF ATTACK



4. (C) The PSP has been one of the strongest opposition
voices in the Constituent Assembly over the past six months,
consistently attacking the positions of Correa's PAIS
movement on every issue that comes to the floor. The PSP
holds 17 seats in the Assembly (down one due to a defection),
less than a quarter the size of the PAIS bloc but the largest
of any opposition party.


5. (C) One issue the PSP has seized on to try to tar
Correa's image domestically is the GOE's ties to the FARC.
PSP Assembly bloc leader Gilmar Gutierrez (Lucio's brother)
and member Fausto Lupera were called traitors for visiting
Colombia to seek documentation on this issue (reftel).
Lupera got into yet another shouting match May 23 with PAIS
member Maria Augusta Calle over the Colombian Prosecutor
General's investigation of her relationship with the FARC
(although his arguments did not stop the PAIS majority from
passing a resolution in Calle's support). PAIS members have
counterattacked by pointing to Lucio Gutierrez' meeting with
the FARC when he was a presidential candidate.


6. (C) PSP supporters also criticize Correa for the weak
economy, contrasting the country's economic strength under
the Gutierrez administration, when GDP growth was 8% in 2004,
to approximately 2% growth in 2007. Rising inflation,
particularly for food, is another emerging vulnerability for
the government that PSP will try to exploit. Pointing to the
drop in economic growth, Roberto Salazar of the Hexagon
consulting firm (considered linked with the PSP) told
visiting WHA/AND deputy director Bowen and Polcouns that many
Ecuadorians do remember the economic stability of the
Gutierrez years and now see Gutierrez as their best hope for
a brighter future.

LUCIO BACK AT PSP HELM, WITH "CHOLO" SUPPORT


7. (C) On May 13, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal restored
Gutierrez' political rights, which he lost two years earlier
when the PSP failed to report a $1,051 campaign contribution.
This allowed Gutierrez to resume his official role as PSP's
leader, a position his brother Gilmar had occupied as
caretaker. Gutierrez did not rule out the possibility of
running for president against Correa in the next elections
(in early 2009),saying, "I am a fighting man, and if the
opportunity presents itself, I will be there."


8. (C) Political analyst Grace Jaramillo emphasized to us
that PSP support remains strong among the "cholos" -- the
lower middle class mestizos who attended public schools and
work in small businesses or the informal economy. Hexagon's
Salazar pointed out that this segment of people identify more
with Gutierrez than Correa because Gutierrez' darker skin
color is more like their own. Pascual del Chioppo, President
of the Social Christian Party (PSC),recently shared with
Guayaquil CG his party's delight with the PSP's resurgence.
His analysis of Gutierrez' appeal tracked closely with the
above, adding that he also had the ability to "talk like
rural people." Del Chioppo said that the PSC and PSP are
"cooperating" and that the PSC would not run any candidates
in upcoming elections in rural areas where the PSP was
strong. Likewise, the PSP is ceding Guayaquil to Mayor Jaime
Nebot and other PSC elements.


9. (C) Nancy Cordova of the Cedatos polling firm explained
to us that PSP's popularity was often underestimated because
it was strongest in rural areas, where there was less polling
and media coverage. Polcouns witnessed PSP's rural
connections in a remote area along the Napo River last
December when a boat bringing Christmas candy from the PSP
attracted crowds of local children and their parents.


10. (C) Others discount PSP's possible resurgence. Omar
Simon of the NGO Citizen Participation, for example,
indicated to us that he saw no way PSP could come back given
continued popular support for Correa's change agenda. Many
Ecuadorians remember well that Gutierrez, who ran in 2002 on
an anti-oligarchy platform, was seen as corrupt and too close
to bankers and the United States once in office.

COMMENT


11. (C) While not positioned to topple Correa from the
presidency, the Patriotic Society Party cannot be counted out
of Ecuadorian political battles. Despite its political
baggage from the past, the party's feisty moves, tireless
campaign reach into remote corners of the country, and strong
rural support look to put it in the lead of opposition
efforts to block the overwhelming wins Correa seeks in the
constitutional referendum and subsequent local and
congressional elections. The odds at this point are that
Correa will pull off solid wins in both forays to the ballot
box, but the PSP's fight back will ensure some tough sparring
-- and likely some extra government spending -- along the way.

Jewell