WHERE IN THE WORLD IS LENIN MORENO?

S E C R E T QUITO 000434

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV EC
SUBJECT: WHERE IN THE WORLD IS LENIN MORENO?

REF: A)07 QUITO 2651 B) 2007 HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT

Classified By: DCM Jefferson Brown for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Vice President Lenin Moreno has failed to
carve out a significant policy role during the first 18
months of the Correa administration, and recent ill-health
has further limited Moreno's role within the GOE. He remains
popular with the public, but does not appear to have
aspirations for the presidency in the future - in contrast to
some more clearly ambitious senior figures of the PAIS
movement. Rumors have started to circulate recently that
Moreno may resign before the Fall, citing health reasons. If
so, the jockeying to succeed him could be intense and
revealing. End summary.

ON THE MEND
--------------


2. (C) Vice President Lenin Moreno, a paraplegic with a
history of health difficulties linked to the shooting
accident that crippled him, was hospitalized on April 22 for
a urinary tract infection and remained in intensive care for
six days, then remained hospitalized for several more days.
Though he returned to his office for the first time on May 5,
the press continues to report that he has not resumed a
normal work schedule. During his weekly radio address on May
10, President Correa said that Moreno had "suffered a small
relapse". In his first television interview since his
illness, Moreno stated on May 14 that he was feeling much
better.

PRESIDENT MORENO?
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3. (S) In the months leading up to Moreno's
hospitalization, discussion of Moreno's role within the
Correa administration and his potential future aspirations
had become something of a parlor game. Many officials within
the GOE and in the international community took note of
rumors that relations between Correa and Moreno had soured,
and pointed to Correa's decision not to have Moreno chair
cabinet meetings in his absence as an indication of his
limited role within the government (ref A.) But sources
close to Moreno felt that that was simply the Vice
President's style. Moreno's Special Assistant for Public
Affairs and Media Andres Michelena (protect) told poloff on
April 17 that Moreno was "very comfortable working behind the
scenes." Michelena said that Correa and Moreno spoke several
times a week and that Moreno was pleased with his role
working on social issues. At the time, Michelena said that
Moreno "had no desire to seek the Presidency on his own, at
this time", leaving a slight window for a possible change of
heart.


4. (S) A change of heart appears to be much less likely,
given Moreno's growing health problems. Already confined to
a wheelchair, embassy sources very close to Moreno said as
late as May 12 that he has decided that he will not seek the
presidency in the future. Furthermore, he has resolved not
to resign the Vice Presidency at this time. However, if, as
expected, the new constitution calls for Presidential
elections, Moreno will not run for Vice President either.

SOCIAL CAUSE CONTINUES
--------------


5. (SBU) Moreno remains committed to the social causes with
which he has been associated throughout his political career.
President Correa assigned Moreno upon assuming office
responsibility for the National Technical Secretariat for the
Development of Human Resources (SENRES),the National Council
for Disabilities (CONADIS),the Council for Amazonic
Development (CODA),and the Secretariat for Citizen's
Solidarity, to which Moreno devotes most of his time. The
Secretariat for Citizen's Solidarity has launched three major
initiatives under Moreno's guidance: "Ecuador without
Barriers" which promotes the social integration of the
disabled (ref B),"Ecuador without Children in Prisons,"
which aims at protecting the children of incarcerated
individuals (ref B) and "Smile Ecuador, We are Nice People,"
which has promotes social cohesion and kindness through
public service announcements. Moreno spearheaded a
partnership program with Microsoft which provided information
technology training for persons with disabilities and was the
driving force behind Ecuadorian adoption of the United
Nations Convention on Persons with Disabilities. (Note:
Ecuador's adoption the convention allowed it to go into
force.) USAID has had a positive working relationship with
Moreno on disability issues. Michelena told poloff on April
17 that Moreno remains fully committed to a major role in
these initiatives.


COMMENT
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6. (S) Though Moreno confidants tell the embassy that Moreno
will not seek national office in the next round of elections,
this could change if his health significantly improves.
Moreno's potential departure from the political scene would
create a power vacuum close to the presidency. The rumor
mill as to who Correa might tap to run with him on the next
ticket has not fully geared up as of yet, but it undoubtedly
will if it becomes apparent that Moreno will in fact remove
himself from contention. All of this is brewing as the
Constituent Assembly Committee on State Structures and
Institutions debates presidential succession in the new
constitution. Moreno remains very popular among the
Ecuadorian electorate (as evidenced by the response to the
prayer to his health offered at the Israeli National Day
celebration on May 7.) With no President having successfully
completed his term over the last decade, rule one of recent
Ecuadorian politics has been "never ignore the Vice
President." Although not in the inner loop of power, given
his popularity, and his close relationship with the powerful
Minister for Internal and External Security Gustavo Larrea,
Moreno remains a figure important to watch and engage.
Jewell