UNPARALLELED MAJORITY: THE STRENGTH OF ECUADOR'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000035

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2018
TAGS: PGOV EC
SUBJECT: UNPARALLELED MAJORITY: THE STRENGTH OF ECUADOR'S
PAIS MOVEMENT

REF: QUITO 030

Classified By: DCM Jefferson T. Brown for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)



1. (SBU) Summary: Despite recent declines in public opinion
polls (reftel) President Correa's Proud and Sovereign
Fatherland (PAIS) movement, which dominates Ecuador's
Constituent Assembly, remains the strongest political
organization that the country has seen since returning to
democracy in 1979. The composition of the Assembly in
general and the PAIS bloc in particular is relatively young
and well-educated, with women, Afro-Ecuadorians, and the
indigenous well-represented. The comfortable majority PAIS
enjoys represents a generational change in Ecuadorian
politics, with both opportunities and risks that post is
monitoring.

BREAKING THE POLITICAL MOLD
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2. (SBU) The political dominance of the Proud and Sovereign
Fatherland (PAIS) movement, which controls 62% of the seats
in the Constituent Assembly, has no precedent in the
traditionally fragmented Ecuadorian party system since the
return to democracy in 1979. In the 11 legislatures elected
since then, a single party never controlled more than 43% of
the seats. -- a record set by the Democratic Left (ID) in

1988.


3. (SBU) The Democratic Left was strong during the period
1979-1988, winning pluralities in all but one legislative
election, but never achieving a majority. Democratic Left
support was largely concentrated in the mountainous region
(sierra). More recently, the Social Christian Party (PSC),
based on the coast, was the largest party in five Congresses
between 1990 and 2002, with a high of 34% of the seats in

1994.


4. (SBU) In the Congress elected in 2006, which was suspended
by the Constituent Assembly in November 2007, the
Institutional Renewal and National Action Party (PRIAN,
another coastal party),had a plurality with 28% of seats,
followed by former president Lucio Gutierrez' Patriotic
Society Party (PSP) with 23%. PAIS, as part of its political
strategy, did not present candidates for Congress.


5. (SBU) The last Ecuadorian Constituent Assembly, which
produced the 1998 constitution, was not controlled by a
single party. Although the Assembly was called largely in
response to indigenous demands, the more conservative PSC won
a plurality with 29% of the seats, followed by the
center-right Popular Democracy party (now called Christian
Democratic Union, or UDC) with 14% and the coastal populist
Ecuadorian Roldosista Party (PRE) with 10%.

STRONGEST POLITICAL ORGANIZATION IN MEMORY
--------------


6. (SBU) PAIS's political feat in the September Constituent
Assembly elections was to capture large numbers of votes not
only in one region or in the most populated areas, but
throughout the entire country, winning seats in all but one
province. Andres Valdivieso, then advisor to former Minister
of Government Gustavo Larrea (and now with Larrea in the
Ministry for the Coordination of Internal and External
Security),told PolChief on December 5 that "PAIS is the only
political organization with national representation since
1895."


7. (SBU) PAIS is a diverse organization. As then NGO Citizen
Participation Executive Director (recently appointed Vice
Foreign Minister) Jose Valencia told us, some PAIS members
believe in democratic principles, while others are more
authoritarian and extreme. Formed in 2005 by four groups
(Citizen Initiative, National Democratic Action, Alfarista
Bolivarian Alliance Movement, and Jubilee 2000),over time
PAIS brought into the fold a large number of other political
and social organizations. At an October 24 conference,
Minister Larrea stated that half of the candidates on the
PAIS ticket represented those other groups. Furthermore, an
already diverse PAIS formed alliances with other parties in
support of provincial candidates, as a result of which it won
seven additional seats in six provinces.

CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY MAKE-UP
--------------


8. (SBU) The PAIS delegation includes at least 22 individuals
lacking prior experience in politics. By contrast, in the
PSP ranks, 17 out of 19 assembly members had held or run for
public office prior to winning an Assembly seat. Two
Assembly members were also a part of the body that wrote the
1998 Constitution: Cesar Rohon (PSC) and Ivan Rodriguez
(PAIS, ex-Democratic Popular Movement).


9. (SBU) Women represent 35% of the Constituent Assembly
membership, up from 26% in the Congress elected in 2006
(before 57 were dismissed). While PAIS counts 45% women
among its Assembly members, their representation is much
lower within the PSP (11%). Afro-Ecuadorians occupy 3.9% of
the Assembly membership and indigenous 6.2%. Both figures
are close to the ones reported in the 2001 census when
respondents were asked to report their own ethnicity.


10. (SBU) Assembly members are generally well educated.
Nearly nine out of ten have earned an undergraduate degree.
The most common professional backgrounds are lawyers (30%),
professionals in education (11%),and business (8%). The
ages of Assembly members range from 21 to 76, with 43 years
as the average.


11. (SBU) Each of the ten committees constituted by the
Constituent Assembly has eight PAIS representatives out of a
total of 13 members. The leadership of the committees is
balanced by gender, but not by political party. Women occupy
half of the committee leadership slots. While PAIS controls
62% of the Assembly seats, it holds 90% of the committee
leadership positions. On the key legislative and oversight
committee, there is only one opposition member, representing
PSP, who is likely to vote against PAIS; the other four
non-PAIS members are ideologically closer to PAIS.

COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) PAIS's strength within the Assembly presents an
opportunity for implementing needed reforms aimed at
improving competitiveness, reducing poverty, making Congress
more representative, depoliticizing the judiciary, and
fighting corruption. The fresh PAIS faces may help convince
a jaded citizenry that the Assembly is producing positive
changes deserving of support. On the other hand, PAIS's
comfortable majority and tight internal discipline bring
risks, including the possibility of excessive centralization
of power in the presidency, restrictions on the market
economy, and hasty or ill-considered legislation.
JEWELL