ECUADOR: THE CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY'S THREE MONTH

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000223

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2018
TAGS: PGOV MARR SNAR EC
SUBJECT: ECUADOR: THE CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY'S THREE MONTH
BENCHMARK

Classified By: DCM Jefferson Brown for reason 1.4 (D)


1. (SBU) Summary: Half way into the Constituent Assembly's
six month tenure, the Ecuadorian people have finally
obtained a glimpse of what their new constitution might
look like. President CorreaQs Proud and Sovereign
Fatherland (PAIS) political movement prepared a proposal
for the structure of the new constitution, which is being
considered by the Assembly plenary. Assembly committees
are moving the first articles of the constitution forward
for plenary consideration, including language that would
prohibit extension of the U.S. Forward Operating Location
(FOL) in Manta under current terms. This concerted and
public focus on constitutional issues follows a dip in the
polling numbers on confidence in the Constituent Assembly
after several weeks devoted to debating specific laws
rather than the new constitution. (End Summary)

CONSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE UNVEILED
--------------


2. (SBU) Assembly President Alberto Acosta (PAIS) presented
a proposal for the framework of new constitution, called a
"skeleton." While PAIS portrayed it as a starting-point
designed to trigger debate, the opposition thought
otherwise. The main criticism was that the proposal did
not emerge from discussion, let along consensus, within the
committees or across party blocs. Assembly member Mae
Montano (A New Option - UNO) argued that the procedure was
in violation of the internal rules of the Assembly. The
Assembly started debating the structure on February 27.
The complete framework (in Spanish) can be seen at:
http://www.asambleaconstituyente.gov.ec/docum entos/propuesta
_de_acuerdo_pais.pdf)


3. (SBU) The six-page framework document does not include
specifics, but provides chapter and section titles. There
are no big surprises, but there are some notable elements:

-- Five branches of government instead of three. The two
additional are "Citizen Power" and an electoral branch.

-- A "decentralized regime of autonomies" which would allow
autonomous regions and/or provinces at the intermediate
level.

-- Five chapters devoted to development, including
provisions for planning. The constitution would define
different types of property.

-- Preamble assigning blame to the country's elite for
injustices in the past.

-- A chapter each on Latin American integration and
migrants.

SOVEREIGNTY COMMITTEE RECOMMENDATIONS
--------------


4. (C) Only the committee on Sovereignty, International
Relations and Latin American Integration has managed to
approve constitutional articles for consideration by the
plenary. The committee appears to have drafted this
language quickly under pressure for the Assembly to show
results. At MFA's February 11 reception for Codel Engel,
which was less than two weeks before the committee
announced the text of the articles, Committee president
Maria Augusta Calle and member Paco Velasco told PolChief
that the committee was discussing only principles, not
specific text, and that it planned gatherings in Quito and
Guayaquil in mid-March to solicit citizen input.


5. (SBU) The shortest of the five articles generated the
most debate within the committee. It reads: "Ecuador is a
territory of peace. Therefore, no foreign military bases
or facilities with military purposes will be allowed on
it." This language would prohibit the extension of the
U.S. Forward Operating Location (FOL) in Manta as currently
configured. Some Assembly members pressed for language
terminating the FOL agreement immediately instead of
allowing it to remain until November 2009, but that move
did not prevail. Committee president Calle told the press
that the FOL "is a topic on which judgment was already

passed; next year the term will expire and it will leave."


6. (SBU) The rest of the articles define the territory of
Ecuador, declare it indivisible, proclaim that its natural
resources belong to the people of Ecuador, and establish
Ecuador's rights over its geostationary orbit.

QUEST FOR POPULAR SUPPORT
--------------


7. (SBU) Public image is a major concern for the PAIS
government and the Constituent Assembly leadership in an
election year (the constitutional referendum and national
and local elections). The Assembly hired Santiago Perez to
conduct weekly public opinion surveys. The newspaper Hoy
revealed that the government spent $6.9 million on 40
official advertising campaigns during 2007. Frequent
government ads extolling the accomplishments of the Correa
government and the Assembly continue.


8. (SBU) February polls on the Constituent Assembly showed
a profound divergence of results depending on the source.
Official pollster Perez, who offered the most accurate
predictions leading up to the Constituent Assembly
elections in September 2007, reported a 53% confidence
rate, which is 8% less than in January.


9. (SBU) According to the Cedatos polling firm - which the
government accuses of supporting private interests - the
Assembly's confidence rate was at 36%, down from 62% since
last November. Cedatos also reported that 61% of
Ecuadorians thought that the Assembly's full powers were
dictatorial.


10. (SBU) An ongoing corruption scandal has added to doubts
about the Assembly's credibility. A video showing Assembly
member Luis Logrono (Patriotic Society Party, PSP)
conspiring to buy votes is the talk of the town. While
facing a dose of intra-party criticism, the PSP supported
Logrono, arguing in his defense that he was collaborating
with a military intelligence service. To the delight of
President Correa, the affair reflected poorly on PSP
founder and former President Lucio Gutierrez, who seeks to
regain eligibility to run for office in this year's
elections. The Prosecutor General, who was appointed by
the Assembly, is investigating the case.

LEGALITY A DIFFERENT QUESTION
--------------


11. (SBU) The judiciary's highest body backed the
Constituent Assembly's powers. On February 26, the
Constitutional Tribunal ratified the Assembly's
self-declared full powers, denying a writ that challenged
the Assembly's first mandate, which defined those powers.


12. (SBU) The new president of the Supreme Court, Roberto
Gomez Mera, is the only government official to recognize
publicly that the Assembly's actions are not consistent
with the rule of law. He told the press he hoped the
Assembly process would conclude and the country return
swiftly to constitutionality.

COMMENT
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13. (C) PAIS's notion of "openness" does not appear to
include either the opposition or other groups that may be
challenging them. Minority Assembly members often complain
to the press about being left out. As part of its insular
attitude, PAIS staff refuses to facilitate meetings for
embassy officers with Assembly members (even those members
who told us that the press distorts the Assembly's work and
welcomed a chance to explain it). PAIS leadership also
reportedly prohibited its members from accepting the
EmbassyQs offer to tour the Manta FOL and receive a full
command briefing. The government is highly sensitive to
public opinion, and is investing efforts and resources to
shape it. For better or worse, this will be PAIS's
constitution.
BROWN