KOSOVO: SERBS ENTHUSIASTIC BUT STILL CONFUSED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRISTINA 000240

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KV UNMIK
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: SERBS ENTHUSIASTIC BUT STILL CONFUSED
AHEAD OF MAY 11 ELECTIONS


Classified By: CDA Tina S. Kaidanow for Reasons 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (C) Summary. Across the political spectrum, Kosovo Serbs
are looking forward to the upcoming May 11 Serbian elections,
despite the uncertainty surrounding the outcome. Nationalist
parties are better-organized and have more support among
Kosovo Serbs than the "pro-European" bloc. Nevertheless,
some of the latter may prevail at the local level due to
personal contacts in their communities, which will play a key
role in voting in small, isolated Serb enclaves. There is
still confusion over what the local elections winners will be
able to do with their victories, although we are informed
that the Serbian Ministry for Kosovo's Coordination Center
(CCK) may name municipal coordinators based on the election
results. Some Kosovo Serb leaders, such as members of the
Serb National Council (SNC) Gracanica and the Independent
Liberal Party (SLS),are feeling vulnerable, as their
leadership bona fides have never been put to a genuine
electoral test, and they fear losing what legitimacy they
have after the elections. We will work to reassure the SLS
and other Serbs in the government that they have a vital role
to play. There is, however, no denying two key facts about
these elections: 1) expected heavy turnout will yield
leaders, whoever they may be, with some legitimacy among
Serbs and 2) whoever controls the Serbian government after
May 11 will continue to exercise decisive influence over
Kosovo Serbs. End Summary.

Enthusiasm for Voting


2. (C) Despite misgivings about the organization of local
elections and the potential for manipulation, Kosovo Serbs of
all political persuasions are enthusiastic about the May 11
parallel Serbian municipal elections being held (illegally)
in Kosovo. Vesna Jovanovic, a former Kosovo MP from Partes
(Gjilan/Gnjilane municipality) and who remains a constructive
interlocutor for the international community, has
enthusiastically joined Serbian Economy Minister Mladjan
Dinkic's G17 Plus party on its local election list in
southeastern Kosovo. The list is headed by G17's Dragan
Nikolic (who serves as regional coordinator for the Serbian
Government's Coordination Center for Kosovo (CCK)). Srdjan
Vasic, a former CCK official (and member of the Socialist
Party (SPS)) explained May 6 that the overwhelming need for
"legitimate" representation has overcome any fear of
manipulation. In line with this, we have been told from all
sides that turnout in Kosovo will be very high on May 11.

DSS, SRS best placed


3. (C) Agreeing with another generally-accepted belief, on
May 6, International Crisis Group (ICG) analyst Srdjan Djeric
said that Serbian Prime Minister Kostunica's Democratic Party
of Serbia (DSS) is the best-organized in Kosovo; Djeric and
many other observers, including members of the G17 and
Serbian President Boris Tadic's Democratic Party (DS),all
expect the DSS to do well, especially in Serb-majority
northern Kosovo, where the DSS network of activists, led by
Marko Jaksic, is very strong. Given Kosovo Serb voting
patterns in the February 2008 Serbian presidential elections,
there is also good reason to expect that Serbs will vote
heavily for the Radical Party (SRS),along with the DSS.

Personal Politics Key


4. (C) Both Djeric and Nikolic (who we met May 8)
underscored, however, that personal contacts are very
decisive in local elections, especially in small,
tightly-knit enclaves in southern Kosovo. Many candidates
from parties that do not poll well among Kosovo Serbs in
parliamentary or presidential elections - such as the DS and
G17 - may do well at the local level. As an illustration of
this, Nikolic and Jovanovic appeared May 8 on TV Puls, a
local Serb station in the Gjilan/Gnjilane area, to promote
the G17 list in the region. Both believe their personal
connections in the community will ensure G17's victory there,

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despite the party's low standing overall with Kosovo Serbs.

Confusion Prevails


5. (C) Apart from political analysts and candidates, Kosovo
Serbs are confused about local elections. Former Kosovo MP
Randjel Nojkic, along with Dragan Velic, a member of the Serb
National Council (SNC) Gracanica, and Dejan Jevtic, the
manager of Radio Gracanica, told us May 6 that it is not
clear at all to the general public who is running and on what
platform at the local level. It is also unclear what powers
any of these elected officials might have once "in office."
In Gracanica itself, regional CCK coordinator Goran Arsic
(DS) is apparently running on both the local DS list and on
his own "citizen's initiative" list to maximize his chances
of getting on the municipal council.

CCK Transition


6. (C) While precise mandates and authority are hard to
determine at this time, the winners of the municipal
elections are likely to have better access to Serbian
institutions. We were told by both Nikolic and Arsic that
the CCK will be reorganized after the elections, leaving five
regional coordinator positions to be filled through
appointments made by the Serbian Ministry for Kosovo, but
allowing the municipality jobs to be determined by the
election results.

"Old Guard," SLS, Nervous


7. (C) Some prominent Kosovo Serbs who have stayed out of
the electoral fray may fear that the elections will sweep
aside their self-declared status as leaders of the local
community, especially since their leadership has never been
put to any electoral test. Two senior members of SNC
Gracanica - Rada Trajkovic, director of the Gracanica Health
Center, along with Dragan Velic - have told us and other
international interlocutors that Belgrade's interference in
Kosovo, in particular the holding of local elections, is
unhelpful. Velic bemoaned that fact that the "Crisis Board,"
a group of Gracanica politicians, policemen, and CCK
officials formed after February 17 to help guide affairs
there, has now fallen apart due to the political campaign.
Trajkovic received Serbian Minister of Defense Dragan
Sutanovac (DS) in her health center on May 5, and readouts we
received on the meeting from UNMIK and other Serb sources
indicate that popular support for Trajkovic - who ordered her
employees to turn out to greet him - is low. The ICG's
Djeric, along with Jevtic and many other self-described
"nonaligned" observers, thinks that Serb leaders like
Trajkovic and Velic have lost whatever credibility they once
had and could fade from the scene after the elections.


8. (C) Serbs in the Kosovo institutions, led by the
Independent Liberal Party (SLS),are also nervous. Over the
past few weeks we have received numerous complaints from SLS
members of the government and Assembly that they are under
threat from hardline elements in Gracanica and elsewhere.
Slobodan Petrovic, leader of the SLS party, has on several
occasions told us he is concerned about being "bypassed" by
the international community after May 11 in favor of new
interlocutors elected by a large number of Kosovo Serbs. As
with the "old guard," Djeric agrees with the widespread
perception among Kosovo Serbs that the SLS and other Serbs in
the institutions will be viewed as at best irrelevant and at
worst traitors to Serbia.

Comment: Belgrade Still Key


9. (C) Despite their internal divisions, sharpened by the
election campaign, Kosovo Serbs agree that whoever controls
power in Belgrade will have a decisive amount of influence
over the fate of Serbs in Kosovo. Looking ahead to the
election results, more democratically-oriented Kosovo Serb
politicians hope for a DS-led government in Belgrade, which

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they think would help them exert influence over the
DSS/SRS-leaning Kosovo Serbs. Some hope openly for such a
government to finally deal with the hardliners in the north.


10. (C) On the local level, we expect that the DSS and SRS
will likely do well, which would position them to play a
significant - and probably unhelpful - role on the ground in
Kosovo no matter who controls the next government of Serbia.
If, as expected, Kosovo Serb turnout on May 11 is high, we
can assume that those elected will have at least some
legitimacy in their communities. While this will present us,
the Kosovo authorities and UNMIK with the challenge of
dealing with the election aftermath, it may also enable us to
determine who among the local Serbs can claim to be genuine
leaders. Depending on the outcomes, and assuming that there
is some openness to contacts with the international
community, we will judge how we might reach out to some of
these new leaders and coordinate the effort with other
stakeholders, including UNMIK, OSCE, and ICO. End Comment.
KAIDANOW