MDC LEADERSHIP DELAYS RETURN TO HARARE AMIDST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 000997

SIPDIS

PLEASE PASS TO AF/S

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2019
TAGS: PREL SF ZI
SUBJECT: MDC LEADERSHIP DELAYS RETURN TO HARARE AMIDST
PARTY TENSIONS

REF: PRETORIA 966

PRETORIA 00000997 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Mary Deane Conners. Reas
ons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. MDC Leader Morgan Tsvangirai's return to
Harare will now be delayed until at least Sunday 11 May due
to increased security concerns for not only Tsvangirai, but
also MDC Spokesperson Tendai Biti. At least one SAG
official, however, doubts that Tsvangirai will return anytime
soon. Western diplomats at a lunch on 09 May felt Tsvangirai
needed to return to Harare to give direction to the MDC on
the ground, but at the same time had reservations about
Tsvangirai's ability to deliver. Diplomats believe the worst
case scenario would be where Tsvangirai is taken out of the
picture, either by being jailed or killed, leaving the party
decapitated. Tsvangirai's "imminent" return comes amidst
internal bickering over whether or not MDC should reengage
with South Africa in its role as SADC mediator for Zimbabwe.
END SUMMARY.

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TSVANGIRAI RETURN DELAYED
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2. (C) According to MDC Advisor Kathi Walther (protect),
European diplomats, and IDASA analyst Sydney Masamvu, MDC
Leader Morgan Tsvangirai has delayed his return to Harare
until "at least" Sunday 11 May due to increased security
concerns (reftel). Walther believes the final call about
whether Tsvangirai returns on Sunday will not be made until
Saturday 10 May. The leader of the South African mediation
team, Kingsley Mamabolo, told a European Commission diplomat
on 09 May that he does not believe Tsvangirai will return any
time soon.


3. (C) Though new concerns about Tsvangirai's security have
been raised (NFI),Walther added that the MDC right now is
more concerned about the welfare of MDC Spokesperson Tendai
Biti, who is not returning to Harare anytime soon. Biti has
been warned that the state is seeking to charge him with
inciting violence by declaring the MDC winner of the 29 March
election (reftel). The MDC parliamentary caucus planned for
09 May also has been canceled, according to Masamvu, who
spoke to MDC parliamentarians last night who said they are
unsure about what the MDC's plan is and are waiting word from
MDC leadership about how to proceed.


4. (C) Whenever Tsvangirai does return, Walther told PolOff
that Tsvangirai would like to be greeted at the airport by as
many diplomats as possible. A British diplomat based in
Pretoria told PolOff that Harare-based British High
Commissioner Pocock plans on greeting Tsvangirai in a show of
support. Masamvu also revealed that the Botswana government
will be transporting a fleet of cars for Tsvangirai to use
once in Harare. (NOTE: Tsvangirai also told Masamvu that
Tanzanian President Kikwete provided Tsvangirai with a full
motorcade during his visit to Dar es Salaam and called him
"Your Excellency" throughout the meeting. END NOTE)

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TENSIONS RISE BETWEEN TSVANGIRAI AND BITI
--------------


5. (C) Amidst planning for Tsvangirai's return this week,
Mbeki's legal advisor Mojanku Gumbi sent Biti several text
messages after Tsvangirai refused to meet with Mbeki,
according to British diplomat Marianne Young. Without
Tsvangirai's knowledge, Biti agreed to meet Gumbi at Mbeki's
QTsvangirai's knowledge, Biti agreed to meet Gumbi at Mbeki's
diplomatic guesthouse in Pretoria, according to Young. Ten
minutes into the meeting, Mbeki showed up. Young said that
Tsvangirai found out after the meeting had occurred and is
furious with Biti for going behind his back. (NOTE: Young
did not reveal a readout of the meeting between Biti, Mbeki,
and Gumbi and did not know exactly which night the meeting
took place, only that it occurred this week. END NOTE)


6. (C) Masamvu told PolOff that tensions have been building
between Tsvangirai and Biti for a couple of weeks over
Tsvangirai's refusal to engage with the South African
government on Zimbabwe. Masamvu said that Biti, like
Welshman Ncube, has always been more open to negotiations
than Tsvangirai. Young also confirmed that Welshman Ncube

PRETORIA 00000997 002.2 OF 002


(of the Arthur Mutambara faction of the MDC) has an "open
door" to both President Mbeki and Gumbi.

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TSVANGIRAI'S ABILITY TO DELIVER QUESTIONED
--------------


7. (C) During a diplomatic lunch at the Irish Ambassador's
residence on 09 May, the consensus around the table, which
included the IMF, France, EU, Belgium, Sweden, New Zealand,
and PolOff, was emphatically that Tsvangirai must return to
provide leadership to what is becoming a rudderless MDC
inside Zimbabwe. However, deeper into the conversation, it
also became clear that many diplomats questioned what
Tsvangirai is capable of achieving with reports of increasing
violence, a ban on political activities, and a yet to be
defined strategy for a way forward. Diplomats believe the
worst case scenario would be where Tsvangirai is taken out of
the picture, either by being jailed or killed, leaving the
party decapitated.
BALL