MDC LEADER ALLEGEDLY RETURNING TO HARARE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 000966

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/S

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/06/2018
TAGS: PREL KDEM KHUM ZI
SUBJECT: MDC LEADER ALLEGEDLY RETURNING TO HARARE


PRETORIA 00000966 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Perry Ball. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. After traveling for most of the past month,
MDC Leader Morgan Tsvangirai will finally return to Harare on
10 May to address the nation, lay out signposts, and start a
"victory/campaign" tour, according to Institute for Democracy
in South Africa analyst Sydney Masamvu and a British
diplomat. Masamvu believes MDC will participate in a run-off
and that Tsvangirai's return is intended to recapture some of
the momentum lost during the absence of almost the entire MDC
leadership. As for when a run-off will occur, Masamvu
believes that the ruling party cannot afford to drag it out
too long because of current economic conditions, adding that
most believe it will occur within 30 to 40 days. However,
another IDASA analyst pointed out that Zimbabwe's electoral
law can easily be manipulated for political ends, making a
run-off date impossible to predict within any legal
framework. END SUMMARY.

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TSVANGIRAI TO RETURN TO HARARE
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2. (C) PolOff on 07 May attended a Zimbabwe political
briefing at the Institute for Democracy in South Africa
(IDASA),during which panelists spoke about the current
electoral crisis in Zimbabwe. IDASA analyst Sydney Masamvu
opened the session by saying that MDC Leader Morgan
Tsvangirai will return to Harare on Saturday 10 May, which
was later confirmed to PolOff by MDC Advisor Kathi Walther
(protect). Tsvangirai will arrive at the airport mid-day and
will be greeted by all MDC parliamentarians. Masamvu said
that Tsvangirai will address the nation on Saturday as well,
laying out "signposts." A British diplomat sitting next to
PolOff said Tsvangirai will soon thereafter embark on "a
victory/campaign tour" in a 500-vehicle convoy throughout the
entire country. Masamvu also said that the MDC will "convene
a parliamentary caucus to outline their agenda on Friday, 9
May," however Walther later told PolOff that this is likely
to be delayed. Masamvu also noted that the two MDC factions
are united only in Parliament. A total reunification of the
party will occur in 12 months. Several contacts have told
PolOff that Tsvangirai has no interest in joining forces with
Simba Makoni.


3. (SBU) Many audience members asked if Tsvangirai is
concerned about his security, especially given the most
recent press reports noting that "snipers" were in Harare set
to kill Tsvangirai, or being arrested. Masamvu said that
Tsvangirai is not afraid of being arrested on treason since
documents used to accuse Tsvangirai have since been proven
false. He also said that SADC leaders have assured
Tsvangirai not to worry, though Masamvu admitted that he does
not know how SADC can guarantee Tsvangirai's safety. A
Swedish aid officer worried that Tsvangirai could be arrested
under Section 31 of the Zimbabwean criminal code, which
states that one can be arrested for making a false statement
that can cause disorder. "Morgan or Tendai announcing they
won by 50.3% would qualify," he warned.

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NO LEGAL TIME CONSTRAINTS ON RUN-OFF
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4. (SBU) According to another IDASA analyst, Derek Matyszak,
Q4. (SBU) According to another IDASA analyst, Derek Matyszak,
Zimbabwe's electoral law is poorly drafted and contains
several contradictory, improbable, and unconstitutional
provisions, which have been exploited for political ends.
Matyszak believes the ZEC's behavior during the first
election almost guarantees that they will not be impartial in
a run-off, while Masamvu believes that electoral results will
now forever be contested, even if they are accurate, because
of the ZEC's behavior.


5. (SBU) As for a run-off date, Matyszak argued that Mugabe
can legally choose any date he wants for a run-off, despite
the electoral provision that a run-off election be held
within 21 days. According to the regulatory powers of the
electoral commission in Section 192 of the Electoral Act,
there are "statutory instruments that provide for altering
any period specified in this (electoral) Act within which
anything connected with, arising out of, or resulting from

PRETORIA 00000966 002.2 OF 002


any election must be done." In other words, ZEC can
theoretically set any date, which will then be approved by
the Justice Minister (who is appointed by Mugabe). Masamvu
believes, however, that the run-off will be sooner rather
than later, given the current economic conditions in the
country. He said that ZANU has estimated a run-off will cost
roughly USD 60 million, and the government is already having
difficulty paying civil servants. Masamvu believes that as
of 06 May most people are looking at a 30-40 day timeline as
of yesterday.


6. (SBU) Masamvu also stated that Mugabe's campaign in a
run-off is being run by the military, not party officials.
He said the CDF Commander and Police Commissioner are
currently pushing for Mugabe to remain President for another
six months, then would like Emmerson Mnangagwa (currently
running the head of Joint Operations Center) to take over as
President. Masamvu said the army commander and head of
intelligence (names not given) are "pushing for change."
BALL