KZN ANC COMING TO TERMS WITH ZUMA'S TRIAL BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 000610

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: KZN ANC COMING TO TERMS WITH ZUMA'S TRIAL BUT
STILL EXPECTING HIM TO BECOME RSA PRESIDENT


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Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Donald Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4(
b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Members of the top three political parties in
KwaZulu-Natal province, ANC President Jacob Zuma's
stronghold, shared conflicting opinions with PolOff and
Durban PolAsst on Zuma's performance thus far as ANC
President and his future. Like other opposition parties, the
Inkatha Freedom Party and the Democratic Alliance do not
believe that Zuma will ever become national President, while
provincial ANC officials maintain that the party still stands
by its resolution that the ANC President, currently Jacob
Zuma, will be their presidential candidate in 2009. Support
for Zuma within his home province, however, seems somewhat
tempered by the sober (and late) realization that Zuma's
legal troubles may be insurmountable. That said, even with
the court case pending, the person most likely to be the next
President of South Africa remains Jacob Zuma. END SUMMARY.


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OPPOSITION BELIEVES ZUMA WILL NOT ASCEND TO PRESIDENCY
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2. (C) PolOff and Durban PolAsst spoke to both ANC and
opposition officials in ANC President Jacob Zuma's home
province, KwaZulu-Natal, to better gauge impressions of Zuma
during his first couple of months in office as well as his
future. Democratic Alliance (DA) Caucus Leader in Durban's
Municipal Council, John Steenhuisen, told PolOff and Durban
PolAsst on 13 March that he does not believe ANC President
Jacob Zuma will be the ANC's candidate for national president
next year because of the inevitability of a criminal
conviction. Steenhuisen said NPA officials have told him
that, while waiting for Zuma's trial to begin on 4 August,
they are continuing their investigation, going as far back as
when Zuma was MEC in KwaZulu-Natal, and that "new charges are
being added daily." Consequently, he believes that the ANC
will nominate ANC Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe as their
candidate for national president, but keep Zuma on as ANC
President until the verdict is reached. When asked how this
would fit with the ANC's resolution that the ANC President
will automatically be the ANC's presidential candidate in
national elections, he simply replied, "The ANC will just
change it." He also believes that Zuma will willingly accept
Motlanthe's nomination because Zuma, as ANC President, would
retain control of the party and state through Luthuli House.


3. (C) Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) Provincial Chairman
Mtomuhle Khawula and Provincial Secretary Sibusiso Buthelezi
on 10 March told us that they believe Zuma will be convicted
before national elections next April and that Motlanthe will
be the ANC's presidential candidate. Nicki Lucas, the IFP's
communications and media director, however, took a more
cautious approach on saying she is in "wait and see mode."
She added that she is afraid the trial "will cheapen the
political debate in the run-up to elections, but will test
South African institutions and the Constitution." (NOTE: The
IFP claims to have roughly 500,000 members, 85 percent of
whom are in KwaZulu-Natal. Party officials do not believe
that Zuma will take any votes away from the traditionally
ethnic Zulu political party, pointing out that Zuma is not a
new factor and that even Zuma's hometown is controlled by the
Qnew factor and that even Zuma's hometown is controlled by the
IFP. They also believe that ANC divisions will help them win
back control of the province, which they lost to the ANC in

2004. END NOTE)

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ANC INTRODUCES CAVEATS
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4. (C) ANC Chief Whip in the KZN Provincial Legislature Cyril
Xaba (known to be in the Mbeki camp) said on 11 March that
"Zuma will be the ANC's candidate unless courts intervene,"
later clarifying that Zuma would have to be found guilty
before the election for him not to be the ANC's candidate.
He also said he is certain ANC members will respect the
court's decision, saying that Zuma himself will soon start
spreading this message. When asked about the contradition
and potential impact, however, of Zuma's claims that he is a
victim of a political conspiracy on the court's credibility,
he pointed out that Zuma is not attracting the same crowds at
the courthouse one saw during Zuma's previous court
appearances.


5. (C) ANC Youth League (ANCYL) Provincial Chairperson

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Nhlakanipho Ntombela (pro-Zuma) on 12 March echoed Xaba's
statements exactly, repeating the oddly turned phrase,
"unless the court intervenes." He also stressed that if Zuma
is found guilty before the election, the ANCYL will accept
the decision peacefully. He also reminded PolOffs that in
the South African court system, one is "innocent until proven
guilty." As for Zuma's successor, Ntombela would not
comment, saying only that the ANC would have to regroup at
that time.

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IN THE MEANTIME...
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6. (C) Both ANC officials stressed that to date the party is
satisfied with Zuma's performance. "He has never let us
down," Ntombela said. As for Zuma's recent statements
contradicting core ANC policies such as affirmative action
and the death penalty, Xaba seemed less forgiving than
Ntombela, but neither one seemed too concerned. Ntombela
pointed out that Zuma "listens to the people" and that Zuma
was simply acknowledging what South Africans want to talk
about. He even managed to give Zuma's comments on
liberalizing labor laws a positive spin, pointing out that
COSATU quickly disagreed. "Zuma gives tripartite alliance
partners a voice, which Mbeki didn't." Xaba was more
realistic, brushing aside Zuma's tendency to put his foot in
his mouth as business as usual. Xaba pointed out that Zuma
said similar things in the runup to Polokwane, but that the
ANC "let it slide." However, he mentioned that one can see
the ANC is now disciplining Zuma. When asked if the ANC was
concerned that Zuma was undermining ANC policies, he replied
with a religious overtone that the "ANC is bigger than the
sum of its members; ANC policy is supreme."


7. (C) The DA's Steenhuisen, surprisingly, also had good
things to say about Zuma. He said he has personally met Zuma
twice and described him as a "charasmatic man with an earthy
charm who makes you want to talk to him." The IFP's Lucas
agreed that Zuma is charasmatic, calling his laugh
"infectious," but also warned EmbOffs that "he laughs when he
is trying to hide something."


8. (C) On a deeper level, however, Steenhuisen confessed that
Zuma "lacks serious judgment and surrounds himself with rabid
supporters who will end up controlling him." He also
assessed that Zuma has made the most obvious political
mistake one can make: "he is promising everything to
everyone, which he will never be able to live up to." In the
end, he thinks Zuma will end up only being able to repay "his
most loyal supporters who stood by him when no one else did,"
especially the ANC Youth League, which stood by Zuma during
his rape trial in 2006. He also worries that South Africa's
international reputation would suffer under Zuma, wondering
out loud how the international community could take South
Africa seriously when its President was on trial for
corruption. Xaba also said that the ANC realizes how
important it is for South Africa to be taken seriously,
especially in today's global economy, but again, that "Jacob
Zuma is innocent until proven guilty."

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COMMENT
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9. (C) From our conversations with provincial ANC members, it
appears that the ANC, at least in KZN, has issued its talking
points: Zuma will be the ANC's candidate for national
president provided he is not found guilty before elections
next year. Though most experts agree it is unlikely Zuma's
Qnext year. Though most experts agree it is unlikely Zuma's
trial will be concluded by the election on/around April 2009,
the ANC (finally) may be bracing itself for an eventual
conviction -- a possibility that was not publicly entertained
in the lead-up to Polokwane. As a result, ANC members we
spoke to appear resigned to the fact that the South African
court system -- not the ANC -- may end up making the decision
for them. In the event that Zuma is convicted, his core
supporters would most likely throw their support behind
Motlanthe. However, until that day, having supported Zuma
this long and with hopes hanging so high, his supporters
still appear willing to wait out the court's decision. For
the moment, however, even with the court case pending, the
person most likely to be the next President of South Africa
remains Jacob Zuma. Until the case begins and we see the
direction it takes, he remains the default setting.


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10. (C) This message has been coordinated with ConGen Durban.
BOST