ANC DEPUTY PRESIDENT TO BE 'DEPLOYED' TO GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 000576

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/S

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINS SF
SUBJECT: ANC DEPUTY PRESIDENT TO BE 'DEPLOYED' TO GOVERNMENT

REF: 07 PRETORIA 4242

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Don Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4(b)
and (d).


1. (SBU) The ANC's National Executive Committee (NEC) decided
on 17 March to "deploy" ANC Deputy President Kgalema
Motlanthe to government in order to smooth the transition
from current national President Thabo Mbeki to the next
administration, which presumably will be led by new ANC
President Jacob Zuma. This public announcement strengthens
continuing rumors that Motlanthe would be the ANC's
replacement candidate for national President should Jacob
Zuma be convicted on pending corruption charges prior to the
2009 parliamentary elections.


2. (C) Though Motlanthe's new governmental position will
have to be negotiated between Mbeki and the ANC, most media
outlets have reported that Motlanthe will most likely be
appointed either Deputy President or Minister Without
Portfolio. It is widely assumed that many Zuma supporters
would take pleasure in seeing current DepPres Phumzile
Mlambo-Ngcuka replaced since she is married to the person
many blame for Zuma's current legal problems, former National
Director of Public Prosecutions Bulelani Ngcuka. However,
Jonathan Faull, a political researcher at the Institute for
Democracy in South Africa, told PolOff on 18 March that he
doubts Motlanthe will end up in the Deputy President
position. "It would send the wrong signals -- that Mbeki is
a lame duck President in a lame-duck government." He
believes Minister Without Portfolio would allow Motlanthe,
who has never served outside of party or union structures and
thus "does not understand the work of a legislature or
executive," to experience a range of government activities.


3. (SBU) The Constitution authorizes the President to
appoint only two non-Members of Parliament to his/her
Cabinet. Currently, these are Sports Minister Makhenkesi
Stofile and Science and Technology Minister Mosibudi Mangena.
Unless Mbeki replaces one of these two, which is unlikely,
the ANC must name Motlanthe to the National Assembly before
he can be appointed to a cabinet-level position. However,
this should not be difficult since the ANC currently has
three vacancies in the National Assembly and party lists for
parliamentary seats can be amended once a year in April.


4. (C) COMMENT: Exactly which position Motlanthe receives
will give us greater insight into how much power Mbeki
retains as national President in the face of a newly-elected
NEC that seems intent on exerting its influence over
government. The Constitution gives President Mbeki the
executive authority to hire and fire his own cabinet, which
he exercised in June 2005 when he replaced then Deputy
President Jacob Zuma with Mlambo-Ngcuka. However, should the
NEC succeed in replacing DepPres Mlambo-Ngcuka with
Motlanthe, their claims that the only center of power in the
ANC rests with the current ANC leadership may be validated.
END COMMENT.
BOST