NEW ANC LEADERSHIP NOT NECESSARILY MORE LEFT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 000342

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR SF
SUBJECT: NEW ANC LEADERSHIP NOT NECESSARILY MORE LEFT
LEANING

REF: 07 PRETORIA 4242

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Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Donald Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4(
b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Despite media portrayals of a newly-elected
"left-leaning" ANC, the new National Executive Committee
(NEC) is no more left-leaning than the previous one under
Mbeki's ANC presidency, according to Neva Makgetla, an
economic advisor in the presidency, and Michael Sachs, one of
Finance Minister Trevor Manuel's economic advisors. Both
Makgetla and Sachs, who are leftists themselves, told
DepEconCouns and PolOff in late January and early February
that most of the newly elected officials have one thing in
common -- they fell out of favor with Mbeki over the past ten
years. In this sense, the new NEC is filled with provincial
leaders who successfully rebelled against Mbeki's
micromanagement of provincial and local party politics.
Though they may not be more left-leaning, they may try to
exert more control over government decisions than the past
NEC, which took instructions from President Mbeki. END
SUMMARY.

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THE NEW ANC: THE WALKING WOUNDED
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2. (C) The ANC's December elections (reftel),which saw a
dramatic shift in leadership, has been mistakenly
characterized as a radical ideological takeover by the left,
according to Neva Makgetla, economic advisor to the
presidency, and Michael Sachs, economic advisor to Finance
Minister Trevor Manuel. Both admitted to DepEconCouns and
PolOff in late January and early February that newly elected
ANC President Jacob Zuma and his supporters have taken the
reins of the party from national President Thabo Mbeki, but
not on ideological grounds. Makgetla argued that there are
more businessmen than ever on the new NEC, and Sachs revealed
that post-election NEC meetings have not been contentious.
"No one is arguing over ideology or policy in the NEC
meetings," he said, adding that instead members quibble over
"trivial things like timelines and costing."


3. (C) However, both Sachs and Makgetla observed that most of
the new NEC members have one thing in common: they have been
spurned by Mbeki. Some are ANC stalwarts who were never
accepted by Mbeki because of lack of formal education (like
Enoch Godongwana). Some initially had been part of Mbeki's
regime, but were kicked out either under a cloud of suspicion
or after being convicted for criminal wrongdoing (like
convicted fraudster and former MP Tony Yengeni). Makgetla
reported that the Joel Netshitenzhe, one of Mbeki's chief
policy advisors, has nicknamed the new NEC "the walking
wounded." Sachs, however, observed that the new NEC also
includes the resentful -- powerful provincial elites (like
Free State's ANC Chairperson Ace Magashule or Limpopo's ANC
Provincial Secretary Cassel Mathale) who have been at odds
with Mbeki over his centralized decisions at the provincial
and local levels. According to Sachs, "Mbeki was overthrown
by provincial elites, not the left; we've seen Polokwane
happen a hundred times over in the past two years with
provincial and local governments fighting Mbeki and central
government for more control."

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OVERSTATING THE ALLIANCE
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4. (C) The change in ANC leadership also has been mistakenly
sold by the media as a demonstration of the strength of the
tripartite alliance, which includes the ANC, South African
Qtripartite alliance, which includes the ANC, South African
Communist Party, and Congress of South African Trade Unions,
according to Makgetla and Sachs. Sachs said that COSATU "is
all about grandstanding," and that "their job is to be the
public opposition." However, Sachs argued that no one in
COSATU really expects drastic changes in policies as a result
of the Zuma camp victory, a sentiment shared by Makgetla,
COSATU's former chief economist.


5. (C) Sachs, whose biological father Joe Slovo was a leader
of the SACP, also scoffed at the idea that the SACP is even
communist anymore. He told us that he had written a very
critical article entitled "Has Socialism Left the Party?"
which argued that the SACP is "devoid of any sober Marxist
analysis and is more concerned about implementation of
current ANC policy than a reconfiguration of state power."

PRETORIA 00000342 002 OF 002


He also said that SACP politburo members were rewarded with
spots on the NEC for their strong support for Zuma, again not
on ideological grounds, but in recognition of their rebellion
against Mbeki. "The SACP is not an ideological alternative
to the ANC; its goal is to take back the ANC so their own
interests can be served," he said.

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ZUMA SEEKS SMOOTH TRANSITION
--------------


6. (C) Though neither Sachs or Makgetla supported Zuma,
neither seemed too troubled by his win. Makgetla
acknowledged that corruption could worsen under Zuma, but
seemed to brush such concerns aside by arguing that the ANC
always had to "fudge finances" in order to take care of its
own. Sachs believes that Zuma wants to ensure "a smooth
transition that will not spook investors." This could be
achieved by keeping Minister Trevor Manuel on as Finance
Minister, at least for a year or so. After that, Sachs said
Zuma has other options, including current Head of the South
African Revenue Service Pravin Gordhan and current
KwaZulu-Natal MEC for Finance and Economic Development Zweli
Mkhize. Sachs said that he would have "complete confidence"
in either person. (COMMENT: During a political roundtable at
the Institute for Global Dialogue on 5 February, analysts
were equally divided on whether Manuel would agree to stay on
as Finance Minister if asked. Some argued that, after 15
years in government, Manuel would be looking for other
options, while others believed that Manuel would do what was
in the best interests of South Africa. END COMMENT)


7. (C) Both Sachs and Makgetla also believe that ANC Deputy
President Kgalema Motlanthe's appointment as Deputy President
of the country, which Sachs said was "in train," also would
help ensure a smooth transition. (NOTE: Since EmbOff
meetings, press reports have noted that the Zuma camp is
divided over Motlanthe's appointment, with strong Zuma
supporters opposing the appointment, which they feel could
give Motlanthe an advantage. Mbeki also publicly said on 10
February that he had not been approached by either the ANC or
Motlanthe for a position. END NOTE) Makgetla argued that
Motlanthe could be a bridge between the current NEC and
cabinet. Moreover, if he were to replace Mbeki as national
president, he would not repeat what she considers Mbeki's
main weakness -- his appointment of cabinet members based on
loyalty, not capability. Nevertheless, Makgetla described
Motlanthe as a type of accidental leader, saying he was
appointed both ANC Secretary General and head of the National
Union of Mineworkers because he was "at the right place at
the right time." She denied that he was a great political
strategist and said though his heart was in the right place,
he could be easily intimidated. Sachs described Motlanthe as
"conciliatory and pacific." When asked whether he would
consider him a Marxist, Sachs simply said, "he comes from the
1950s frame of mind."

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COMMENT: MORE ANTI-MBEKI THAN PRO-ZUMA
--------------


8. (C) If the majority of the NEC is united only in its
opposition to Mbeki, Zuma will have to work hard at
maintaining loyalty. Many are not personally wedded to Zuma,
who is commonly portrayed as a populist, but instead feel
that they will have more control with Mbeki out of the
picture. Moreover, the new NEC, though similar in ideology,
Qpicture. Moreover, the new NEC, though similar in ideology,
may try to exert more control over the current Mbeki
government than the past NEC, which for the most part took
instructions from Mbeki. However, this may not automatically
apply to the next national government if NEC members become
as beholden to it as the previous NEC was to Mbeki.


9. (C) The election of the new NEC may reflect an evolution
within the ANC in which the absence of a unifying threat (the
apartheid regime) has allowed differences and schisms to rise
to the surface. As a consequence, the former tendency to
resolve differences in the quest for unity has been replaced
by jockeying for power among competing factions.
BOST