COPE, ANC SQUARE OFF ON RECONCILIATION DAY IN

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SUBJECT: COPE, ANC SQUARE OFF ON RECONCILIATION DAY IN
BLOEMFONTEIN

REF: PRETORIA 2709

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Classified By: DEPUTY POLITICAL COUNSELOR MADELINE Q. SEIDENSTRICKER FO
R REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


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Summary
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1. (C) The Congress of the People (COPE) and the African
National Congress (ANC) held events on December 16 in
Bloemfontein that indicate where South Africa is headed ahead
of the election next year and beyond. COPE's December 13-16
inaugural conference ended on December 16 with the election
of its leadership slate, headed by Mosiuoa Lekota. The ANC
on December 16 held a rally in a township outside of
Bloemfontein headlined by its leader, Jacob Zuma. COPE is
pursuing policy and consensus with intensity while the ANC
seems unsure how to respond and therefore is relying on free
entertainment and messages from the past. In a country with
more "have-nots" than "haves," the ANC's message gives it the
upper hand ahead of the election as the ANC's messages are
directed at the poor while COPE for now appears to be
directing its messages to the middle class. Despite the
ANC's advantage, the moment the ruling party's tactics no
longer work and the "have-nots" in places like Manguang
township decide the ANC is no longer formulating new policies
for tackling old problems, COPE may find even more political
space to emerge. End Summary.

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Present at Creation: COPE
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2. (C) They came by the thousands, in chartered buses and
expensive model cars. They came from far flung corners of
all of South Africa's provinces because they were "fed up by
the ANC," inspired by Lekota, or curious about a new
political movement. Once there, they took part in a
conference that was well-organized and well-attended. The
University of Free State opened its doors to COPE and local
police officials made sure delegates could work out policy
safely and securely; there were few reports of COPE members
being targeted or threatened by the ANC or the local public.
Numerous delegates, all wearing COPE t-shirts, hats, or
shorts, talked with Poloffs about their reasons for joining,
COPE's organization, and what the future holds. A group of
three male delegates from the Free State whispered, "We all
are from the ANC, but we have had enough. There is too much
corruption in the municipal governments ... the ANC has to
go." Two female delegates, one from Eastern Cape and one
from Western Cape, told Poloffs that they left the ANC
because the party "has no morals and has lost Christ." They
noted, "What the ANC is teaching our children is that having
no morals is all right." Three male delegates from Gauteng
told Poloffs they left the ANC because "we could never speak
out against policy or have a say in decisions." A male
delegate from Limpopo told Poloff he left the ANC because "as
a white guy they never took me seriously." Another male
delegate, from Western Cape, said, "I had to leave the
Independent Democrats (ID) because even though we started out
as strong as COPE the ID became all about one person
(Patricia De Lille)." A male delegate from Mpumalanga told
Poloffs he left the ANC because "they do nothing for the
rural areas. I mean, nothing ... there are people really
suffering out there but the ANC has not done one thing."


3. (C) Lekota opened the conference on December 14 before
the party held meetings on policy from December 15-16.
Qthe party held meetings on policy from December 15-16.
Lekota, and all the other speakers, delivered their messages
in front of a large banner with the COPE message -- "A New
Party For Hope and Change" and behind a lectern with the
newly approved COPE symbol. Lekota commanded loud applause,
and standing ovations, during his opening speech and nearly
every following time he spoke before the roughly 4,000
delegates. Following his opening remarks, other senior COPE
leaders spoke about the party's future and the party's
values. (Note: COPE made a point of not speaking about the
ANC or about Zuma. End Note). Mbhazima Shilowa spoke
several times and commanded a huge ovation at one point when
he leapt from his chair on the podium and removed the cap
worn by a young man addressing the crowd. Shilowa seriously

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said, "You need to show respect when you are speaking in
front of others." Shilowa on December 15 also promised
Lekota on December 16 he would "be made very surprised and
very happy by some of our announcements." Following
Shilowa's remarks, COPE leader Charlotte Lobe approached the
lectern and asked that delegates break into commissions to
discuss potential COPE policies.


4. (C) Poloffs sat in on the commission meetings and gained
a sense of how COPE ensured the people's voices were heard.
In the commission on foreign policy and environmental
affairs, Poloff witnessed two COPE members lead the room in a
discussion on what COPE's foreign and environmental policies
should look like. All ideas came from the floor and included
such points as "serving as a model on the African continent
by promoting stability and peace" and "recycling centers that
pay the poor for saving cans and bottles" were tossed around
and debated endlessly. (Note: COPE members did not discuss
Zimbabwe during the commission on foreign affairs. End
Note.) Following a two-hour discussion, delegates in the
foreign policy and environmental affairs session put their
thoughts into small "agreed upon" bullet points so they could
be presented to the entire conference floor. In the
commission on security, stability, and social cohesion, the
discussion ran past two hours and delegates did not have time
to put their thoughts into bullet points. Although the
commissions were intellectually draining, there was a huge
buzz of conversation as delegates walked from the breakaway
classrooms back into the main hall where the commissions
presented their findings. Delegates discussed everything
from how to encourage farming to how to build party branches
once the conference ended. Commission leaders presented the
bullet points to the entire conference on the evening of
December 15, which took hours and was only completed in the
morning on December 16.


5. (C) As Shilowa promised, there were several surprises on
December 16. First, former United Democratic Front activist
Allan Boesak announced he would join the party. He
reportedly is interested in serving as COPE's candidate for
the Western Cape premiership. Second, Shilowa announced a
large Afrikaner farmer organization would be supporting the
new party. Third, the party announced its formal leadership
slate. Included in the list were COPE's most prominent names
such as Lekota, Shilowa, Lobe, Phillip Dexter, and Smuts
Ngonyama. Also included were surprises such as Deputy
President Lynda Odenall. (Note: Odenhall has no political
profile and Poloff sat next to her during some of Shilowa's
remarks on December 15 without even knowing who she was
because she was so unassuming. Lekota has promised that
Odenall's profile "will be built." Also, Finance Minister
Trevor Manuel appears to be staying in the ANC for now
despite rampant speculation among journalists and delegates
that he would defect soon. End Note). As noted in Reftel,
Lekota was named COPE's leader "by consensus." Shilowa and
Odenaal will serve as Lekota's deputies. In his acceptance
speech, Lekota promised the "history of South Africa would
never be the same" and COPE "had taken this step because we
are the party of the future." He also promised COPE would
fight joblessness and grow the economy. The conference ended
Qfight joblessness and grow the economy. The conference ended
with a free musical concert at the main cricket stadium in
Bloemfontein. Members of the general public were invited and
some speculated the crowd of 4,000 swelled to 7,000 before
the concert ended. As the conference ended, Poloff heard
from several delegates who said they "will now begin to build
branches in earnest" and "are ready to push back against the
intimidation they faced in home provinces."


6. (C) Poloffs had dinner with Lekota assistant Tseliso
Phomane the night of December 16. Clearly tired and
exuberant at the same time, Phomane promised the conference
is only the beginning. He said COPE has run out of t-shirts
but has demand for thousands more. He noted there are more
ministers, deputy ministers, and parliamentarians ready to
defect from the ANC. However, he said Lekota and others are
encouraging them to stay "because it is a huge disruption for
the ANC to have them still in government." He said the
leadership of COPE is set and "will not change since it was
decided by consensus." He also noted COPE will not release
its final party manifesto until January 8 so that the ANC
cannot "steal ideas from it." Phomane promised that "COPE
will keep the ANC off balance" in the months ahead.


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Referencing Its Creation: ANC
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7. (C) They came by the thousands, on bicycles and in
tattered shoes. They came from the forgotten streets of
Manguang township outside Bloemfontein because they were
following in their parents' footsteps, excited to see Zuma,
or wanted free alcohol and entertainment. Zuma, who stood on
a well-guarded stage along with ANC Secretary General Gwede
Mantashe, ANC Deputy Secretary General Thandi Modise,
Congress of South African Trade Unions Secretary General
Zwelinzima Vavi, and businessman Tokyo Sexwale, opened the
address by focusing on the ANC's history. Unlike COPE's
conference, the ANC rally was meant to as an ANC campaign
platform, so there was little by way of policy discussion.
Zuma began by listing the names of all the famous heroes of
the movement and praised what they accomplished "for the
people." Specifically, he singled out Chris Hani, saying
that "our people loved Comrade Chris. He fought for peace
and reconciliation." He then told the crowd the ANC needs to
"defend our hard won election and our country's
constitution." He spoke about how the ANC needs to focus on
education, health, and job creation. He also said all of the
ANC's leaders during the last 15 years need to take
collective responsibility for the good and the bad of the
party's decisions. (Note: Many journalists and political
analysts saw this as a swipe at Lekota, who was former ANC
national chairman. End Note). Despite such statements,
Zuma's brief remarks focused primarily on the ANC's past and
its future goals. There was little by way of negative
campaigning against COPE.


8. (C) Zuma delivered his address in Manguang's soccer
stadium to a crowd of roughly 7,000. The crowd stood for
portions of the speech in the bleachers and on the field.
Most in the crowd listened intently as Zuma spoke, but a
large fight broke out on the field during his remarks as kids
fought for the free t-shirts that ANC members were passing
out. In addition to free t-shirts and a free concert, the
ANC was reportedly offering free food and alcohol to all who
attended. After the t-shirts were finally distributed, the
crowd of kids dispersed and Zuma finished his address to
widespread applause. As soon as Zuma finished speaking the
crowd broke out into the popular song, "Bring Me My Machine
Gun." (Note: Poloff walked under the bleachers as the crowd
began to sing and was surprised at how the stomping of feet
to the lyrics drowned out all other sounds in the stadium.
End Note). Zuma and some of the many other entertainers
brought to the event sang and danced for at least an hour
after the ANC President finished his address. The crowd
roared whenever Zuma joined in with the dancing. The free
entertainment continued for several more hours, even after
Zuma departed in a long motorcade with at least 50 bodyguards
running near his vehicle.


9. (C) The crowd was largely black South African as Poloff
saw only one Afrikaner in attendance -- who came "for the
free beer" -- and one Indian. Many of those on the field
were children or members of the Manguang branches of the ANC
Women's League dressed in their ANC dresses and jackets.
They walked slowly toward the exit after Zuma spoke,
seemingly uninterested in the free entertainment following
Qseemingly uninterested in the free entertainment following
the address. Most of those in attendance who did stay sat in
the shaded grandstand of the stadium as South Africa's most
popular singers and dancers performed.

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Comment
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10. (C) It is important to keep in mind that COPE's
conference and the ANC's rally served two different purposes.
The conference served to formulate ideas for a new political
party and to identify its leadership. The rally served to
remind voters in a poor, urban area that the ANC still cares
for them and is poised to do well in the election next year.
The rally also was meant to remind COPE the ANC is still a
force to be reckoned with. What was most interesting about
witnessing both events is how COPE is pursuing policy and
consensus (two long-time ANC buzz words) with intensity while
the ANC seems unsure how to respond and is therefore relying
on messages from the past. COPE's intense focus on policy

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and on portraying unity has not been seen in South Africa
since the days of Nelson Mandela. (Note: Despite this focus
on debate and discussion there are still questions over how
far down consensus goes. For more information see Reftel.
End Note). Meanwhile, the ANC still seems unsure of how to
respond to COPE and is using free entertainment and
appearances by senior leaders as a way to remind voters of
how the party has served "its people." In a country with
more "have-nots" than "haves," the ANC's message gives it the
upper hand ahead of the election. However, the moment the
ANC's tactics no longer work and the "have-nots" in places
like Manguang decide the ANC is no longer formulating new
policies for tackling old problems, COPE may find even more
political space to emerge.
BOST